rochesterdave Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 These models are really pretty terrible. They over amplify everything. I’ve always contended that they should ‘learn’ from their mistakes. Don’t they run self verification software and realize they over promise extreme weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Super impressive Tornado signature (earlier) on radar near GA/SC coastal border: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Super impressive Tornado signature (earlier) on radar near GA/SC coastal border: I stayed up almost all night tracking these tornadoes, there was one after another nearly all night. Most of them had TDS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 The storm yesterday in Mississippi was a Cat 4/5. Quite the outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 43 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Super impressive Tornado signature (earlier) on radar near GA/SC coastal border: We're in Hilton Head, SC. That passed just south of us, thank God! I was up at 7 or so tracking these. Another one formed just to our north as well. Intense line, heavy rain and lots of lighting...no too much wind. No basement to hide in down here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Feeling somewhat"tropical" out, temp up to 62°, pouring currently, 3/4" liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: Super impressive Tornado signature (earlier) on radar near GA/SC coastal border: My cousin lives in Upstate South Carolina in between Seneca and Clemson. He is a grad. student there. He was posting pictures/video on FB of all the damage there. They got hit HARD! The campus itself just got missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just made it to the inch plateau, rain starting to subside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Starting to get quite breezy, gusting just under 40mph.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 Up to 60 MPH in Hamburg 65 at Fredonia RIP my fence https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Wind is really ripping good here. Just started about half hr ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Fortunately the wind hasn’t been too bad here so far. Was bracing for much worse with the “once in 20-30 year storm event” talk from BUF. 65 mph in Fredonia is impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Fortunately the wind hasn’t been too bad here so far. Was bracing for much worse with the “once in 20-30 year storm event” talk from BUF. 65 mph in Fredonia is impressive though. I’d be shocked if we gusted above 50 here. What a bust of an event. Glad though as we don’t need more problems on top of all this other stuff going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Fortunately the wind hasn’t been too bad here so far. Was bracing for much worse with the “once in 20-30 year storm event” talk from BUF. 65 mph in Fredonia is impressive though. Well we knew by yesterday that the GFS was a massive outlier and to expect a high end advisory event instead of anything noteworthy. The NWS did a decent job of attempting to backtrack on the doomsday predictions but the word usually is slow to get to the gen pub. 65mph is impressive but someplace in the buffalo area just gusted to 68mph within the past few weeks so the area is quite battle hardened. Over the last 5 years it seems that mid 60mph+ gusts have become much more frequent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Well we knew by yesterday that the GFS was a massive outlier and to expect a high end advisory event instead of anything noteworthy. The NWS did a decent job of attempting to backtrack on the doomsday predictions but the word usually is slow to get to the gen pub. 65mph is impressive but someplace in the buffalo area just gusted to 68mph within the past few weeks so the area is quite battle hardened. Over the last 5 years it seems that mid 60mph+ gusts have become much more frequent. That was actually KBUF that gusted to 68 mph during the severe thunderstorms a couple weeks ago. BUF gusted to 56 and ROC 51 today. Not super impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Looks like nothing but low-mid 40s all week except Sunday (low 50s), still feels good with that April sun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 5 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like nothing but low-mid 40s all week except Sunday (low 50s), still feels good with that April sun lol I've just had it with being cold. 60 with sun....is that too much to ask? In upstate NY it seems like it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 1 hour ago, cny rider said: I've just had it with being cold. 60 with sun....is that too much to ask? In upstate NY it seems like it is. Consider yourself lucky. This is what we're dealing with in the UP still. Tired of the snow this year. I literally dream of warm, puffy-cloud days outside barefoot... lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 57 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Consider yourself lucky. This is what we're dealing with in the UP still. Tired of the snow this year. I literally dream of warm, puffy-cloud days outside barefoot... lol That looks like heaven on earth. If it’s going to be deep and somewhat useful it can hang around into early May in my book. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 2 hours ago, cny rider said: I've just had it with being cold. 60 with sun....is that too much to ask? In upstate NY it seems like it is. Seems we’re getting the pattern now that was entirely absent when we want it, from late Novie thru mid March. Temps consistently 10-20 deg below normal with frequent short waves rolling thru over 2 weeks. Entirely predictable that it comes now in April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 14, 2020 Author Share Posted April 14, 2020 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: Consider yourself lucky. This is what we're dealing with in the UP still. Tired of the snow this year. I literally dream of warm, puffy-cloud days outside barefoot... lol I think UP of Michigan is the only place in the USA this winter with above average snowfall, pretty remarkable considering how little cold air and lake effect we had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 14, 2020 Author Share Posted April 14, 2020 NAM went further north with the next system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 14, 2020 Author Share Posted April 14, 2020 49 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Seems we’re getting the pattern now that was entirely absent when we want it, from late Novie thru mid March. Temps consistently 10-20 deg below normal with frequent short waves rolling thru over 2 weeks. Entirely predictable that it comes now in April. I would love Winter weather from Late Nov to Early March. I just wish we had seasons in seasons. I hate the month of April, windy/rainy is just the worst. However, summer is by far my favorite season. Really hoping we can make a quick transition next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 14, 2020 Author Share Posted April 14, 2020 GFS with a few hits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM went further north with the next system Pretty big jump north. Interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I would love Winter weather from Late Nov to Early March. I just wish we had seasons in seasons. I hate the month of April, windy/rainy is just the worst. However, summer is by far my favorite season. Really hoping we can make a quick transition next month. Wonder if there’s any correlation between cold April’s here and the following summer. Looks like we should build up a pretty solid negative departure over the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 15, 2020 Author Share Posted April 15, 2020 18Z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Definitely not inconceivable that at least a few inches will fall Friday. Obvious limiting factor is April sun angles, but still. Favor areas north of BGM for anything over 3 inches ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 15, 2020 Author Share Posted April 15, 2020 NAM farther north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 15, 2020 Author Share Posted April 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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