Upstate/Eastern New York

[TugHillMatt]

A Westerly to WNW flow lake effect band being predicted?

Congrats to Watertown and Alex Bay!

[wolfie09]

What is this? Below average temps? Lol

Probably not what you wanna see this time of year unless it comes with snow..

Probably due to the epo taking a nose dive..

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 37.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Monday

Partly sunny, with a high near 39.

 

[Revracer800]

8pm on March 9th and it's 60° out. Something wrong with that lol. What a crazy screwed up winter it has been. Well if you call it a winter. 

[Leelee]

The first ~60 degree day in March always has a special feeling. A little dampened this year since this winter had many mild days, but it was still beautiful and enjoyable. And that there's looking to be at least a handful of them coming later in the month.

[wolfie09]

Just seen a thousand geese flying south, must be headed to clay 

I tell you, these damn voles are ripping the shit out of my yard lol

[wolfie09]

 

Be careful what you say, that's somewhat family right there 

I know I've mentioned it before but his mother Matilda is my grandmother's first cousin..

[TugHillMatt]

30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

 

Be careful what you say, that's somewhat family right there 

I know I've mentioned it before but his mother Matilda is my grandmother's first cousin..

It's funny, after living in Michigan for 10 years, I got used to the Dutch ruling everything...Here in NY, it's the Italians. Syracuse has MANY Italians. Statiscially, there are many Irish here too...but I (Irish on both sides) definitely feel like a minority.

[BuffaloWeather]

When a pattern is locked in its locked in. 70s next weekend?

 

[TugHillMatt]

Unreal. This is so ridiculous. It was 60 degrees when I woke up this morning! Man, what an awful 4 months for winter weenies like myself.

[wolfie09]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

When a pattern is locked in its locked in. 70s next weekend?

 

This is @2am lol On the OP..

[wolfie09]

It was also ahead of a strong CF, so we go from late spring to early winter verbatim..

[BuffaloWeather]

Kind of hoping for a quick transition to summer. Need to get this virus thing in check. Doubt it survives the summer heat.

[WNash]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Kind of hoping for a quick transition to summer. Need to get this virus thing in check. Doubt it survives the summer heat.

It seems to be spreading easily in Australia, which despite late summer temps has significantly higher proportion of infected people than the US. 

[BuffaloWeather]

26 minutes ago, WNash said:

It seems to be spreading easily in Australia, which despite late summer temps has significantly higher proportion of infected people than the US. 

Just because they are testing more. China cases have leveled off.

[vortmax]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just because they are testing more. China cases have leveled off.

Summer temps, humidity, and people generally spending more time outdoors will help keep it at bay, just like the flu and cold viruses. If the US would just end school early this year, that would help tremendously for everything.

[wolfie09]

Seems to be mostly unknown at the moment..

Dr. Gregory Gray, of Duke University's Global Health Institute Division of Infectious Diseases, tells CBS News that the summer months may lead to a small decrease in transmission, but likely won't stop the spread of coronavirus completely.

 

"It is hard to know," Dr. Gray said. "Routinely seen coronaviruses often wane during summer months as buildings have more air circulation, [people] tend to congregate less, and people are more exposed to UV light which can kill viruses."

However, he said this particular coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV2, "is pretty infectious — meaning it has a high basic reproduction number — and virtually 100% of people are susceptible. My hunch is we may see a 10% to 20% slowdown in transmission, but I doubt the virus will cease infecting people during summer months."  

It is also important to remember that just because it starts getting warmer in the U.S. doesn't mean it's warm elsewhere.

"The virus will soon be very active in both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, which have opposing summers and winters," Gray explains. "Hence, a summer slowdown in the Northern Hemisphere may be offset with a concomitant winter increase in the Southern Hemisphere."

The CDC's website says it is not yet known whether weather and temperature will impact the spread of coronavirus. It also points out that even though you are statistically less likely to get sick with cold or flu viruses during the summer, it's still possible to come down with them any time of the year.

[BuffaloWeather]

12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Seems to be unknown at the moment..

Dr. Gregory Gray, of Duke University's Global Health Institute Division of Infectious Diseases, tells CBS News that the summer months may lead to a small decrease in transmission, but likely won't stop the spread of coronavirus completely.

 

"It is hard to know," Dr. Gray said. "Routinely seen coronaviruses often wane during summer months as buildings have more air circulation, [people] tend to congregate less, and people are more exposed to UV light which can kill viruses."

However, he said this particular coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV2, "is pretty infectious — meaning it has a high basic reproduction number — and virtually 100% of people are susceptible. My hunch is we may see a 10% to 20% slowdown in transmission, but I doubt the virus will cease infecting people during summer months."  

It is also important to remember that just because it starts getting warmer in the U.S. doesn't mean it's warm elsewhere.

"The virus will soon be very active in both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, which have opposing summers and winters," Gray explains. "Hence, a summer slowdown in the Northern Hemisphere may be offset with a concomitant winter increase in the Southern Hemisphere."

The CDC's website says it is not yet known whether weather and temperature will impact the spread of coronavirus. It also points out that even though you are statistically less likely to get sick with cold or flu viruses during the summer, it's still possible to come down with them any time of the year.

Just from experience I don't think I've ever been sick in the summer. I get sick 1-2 times a year between Oct-April. Usually sinus infections/colds. Have had the flu once in the last 6-7 years, never get the shot. Wife had the flu in Nov, but I never got it.

She said the flu in Nov. was the worst sickness she ever had. Nearly a 103 fever, lasted 3-4 days with severe symptoms.

[DeltaT13]

Tom Hanks has the virus.

No travel to Europe 

This shit is getting wild

https://apple.news/AEO8WmlLnRuW8ulmQ_cUqfA

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Tom Hanks has the virus.

No travel to Europe 

This shit is getting wild

https://apple.news/AEO8WmlLnRuW8ulmQ_cUqfA

Yeah going to wait another 10-14 days but most likely canceling my trip. I will get almost all of my money back.

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Life comes at you fast.

At a press conference Monday, Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert was reportedly attempting to make light or a point about overreaction and fear of the coronavirus by touching every reporter’s microphone and recorder before he left.

 

 

On Wednesday, Gobert tested positive for the Coronavirus.

The NBA then postponed Utah’s game against the Oklahoma City Thunder just prior to the tip, even after the starting lineups were announced. Not long after, the league announced they were suspending the 2019 season due to the outbreak, likely with Gobert coming down with the virus as a major factor in that

 

Source

[rochesterdave]

I’m starting to rethink this whole ‘working in a hospital’ thang. Good knowing ya playas. 
We’ll probably be laughing about this in a few weeks. Perhaps it’ll create a new saying, ‘don’t go corona on us’.? 
Right now it feels kinda nuts....

[BuffaloWeather]

38 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m starting to rethink this whole ‘working in a hospital’ thang. Good knowing ya playas. 
We’ll probably be laughing about this in a few weeks. Perhaps it’ll create a new saying, ‘don’t go corona on us’.? 
Right now it feels kinda nuts....

First case in Monroe county.

[BuffaloWeather]

https://wyrk.com/rochesters-first-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed/?fbclid=IwAR3R9yQ4mHSxVJsRhnbbwPkubQxpK2TknPTjG58ySYKGYaI5e-wSGlR-zws

[rochesterdave]

Dang. This thing feels hot. And I’m not prone to hysteria. Markets gonna tank today. 
Only upside is that I’ve been sitting on a bit of cash for a few years now (I expected the market to tank under Trump) and now I might get an opportunity to jump in. 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Dang. This thing feels hot. And I’m not prone to hysteria. Markets gonna tank today. 
Only upside is that I’ve been sitting on a bit of cash for a few years now (I expected the market to tank under Trump) and now I might get an opportunity to jump in. 

I'm down so much in my 401k I don't even want to look.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

I still don’t know what to really think about this whole virus thing.  Numbers wise it still seems to pale in comparison to seasonal flu or the numbers we saw during swine flu.  Media is certainly putting a panic tiny on the daily reporting but maybe all these closing and shut downs are what we need to curb the transmissions rates.   One thing that worries me is the possibility of area wide school shut downs for an extended time period.  Saw today most local college are either extending spring break or moving classes to online only so will grade schools be next?  Daycares?  This would have a devastating impact to the work force, there would be huge voids in the healthcare field alone that would see workers having to take leaves to care for their kids.  Honestly I think this would crush the economy for years. 
My other bigger worry is our food and drug supply chain was not and will not ever be ready to handle the out of control consumer demand for select items we have seen the past 2 weeks.  With all the panic reporting there hasn’t been a lot of talk of this, but running a store I can tell you the situation is likely going to get really bad in the next 2 weeks.  First on the drug side there are a lot of concerns for shortages on everyday prescription drugs and also generic antibiotics as a large percent of these are manufactured in China.  Between plants being shut down there and the Chinese government stockpiling these drugs now rather than exporting them, there is a possibility some well known and highly used drugs may be unavailable at times.  Ok moving onto household items... Hand Sanitizer, Lysol, Clorox products.  We were getting out of the cold and flu season so a lot of these manufactures were switching production to other items they produce.  The supply chain is dry and even at full capacity now going again the supply will be a drop in the bucket against the demand out there.  Hand soaps are going to be the next thing empty.  They sat there mostly untouched at first but now are really thinning out. Toilet Paper?  This one threw everybody off.  Good news is TP is a highly consumable item so production rates can and will be able to catch back up in a few weeks is people stopped freaking out and buying a 6 month supply.  Selection will be low but it will be back on store shelves regularly again soon.  Water?  Not sure why people are stocking up on water.  People need to invest in a nice Brita type or similar pitcher or reuse water bottle.  
Retail life the past 2 weeks has felt like a never ending winter storm watch with full on panic shopping.  Every afternoon we are getting killed with people stockpiling.  Every day it’s a new hot item on the must have list.  What’s next?  Canned Meats?  Peanut Butter?  Rice and Beans?  Again if people just bought what they normally needed instead of hoarding and freaking out this would be a lot more manageable.  

[BuffaloWeather]

27 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I still don’t know what to really think about this whole virus thing.  Numbers wise it still seems to pale in comparison to seasonal flu or the numbers we saw during swine flu.  Media is certainly putting a panic tiny on the daily reporting but maybe all these closing and shut downs are what we need to curb the transmissions rates.   One thing that worries me is the possibility of area wide school shut downs for an extended time period.  Saw today most local college are either extending spring break or moving classes to online only so will grade schools be next?  Daycares?  This would have a devastating impact to the work force, there would be huge voids in the healthcare field alone that would see workers having to take leaves to care for their kids.  Honestly I think this would crush the economy for years. 
My other bigger worry is our food and drug supply chain was not and will not ever be ready to handle the out of control consumer demand for select items we have seen the past 2 weeks.  With all the panic reporting there hasn’t been a lot of talk of this, but running a store I can tell you the situation is likely going to get really bad in the next 2 weeks.  First on the drug side there are a lot of concerns for shortages on everyday prescription drugs and also generic antibiotics as a large percent of these are manufactured in China.  Between plants being shut down there and the Chinese government stockpiling these drugs now rather than exporting them, there is a possibility some well known and highly used drugs may be unavailable at times.  Ok moving onto household items... Hand Sanitizer, Lysol, Clorox products.  We were getting out of the cold and flu season so a lot of these manufactures were switching production to other items they produce.  The supply chain is dry and even at full capacity now going again the supply will be a drop in the bucket against the demand out there.  Hand soaps are going to be the next thing empty.  They sat there mostly untouched at first but now are really thinning out. Toilet Paper?  This one threw everybody off.  Good news is TP is a highly consumable item so production rates can and will be able to catch back up in a few weeks is people stopped freaking out and buying a 6 month supply.  Selection will be low but it will be back on store shelves regularly again soon.  Water?  Not sure why people are stocking up on water.  People need to invest in a nice Brita type or similar pitcher or reuse water bottle.  
Retail life the past 2 weeks has felt like a never ending winter storm watch with full on panic shopping.  Every afternoon we are getting killed with people stockpiling.  Every day it’s a new hot item on the must have list.  What’s next?  Canned Meats?  Peanut Butter?  Rice and Beans?  Again if people just bought what they normally needed instead of hoarding and freaking out this would be a lot more manageable.  

Basically boils down to this...

Flu has a mortality rate of .1% and COVID-19 will be between 1-4%.

Hospitals are already near 70% compacity. They will be overrun the next few months or until a vaccine is found. It has a really high mortality rate for those elderly and immune compromised. I think it's a pretty big deal. Countries don't just shut down entirely (Italy) because of overreacting.

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Basically boils down to this...

Flu has a mortality rate of .1% and COVID-19 will be between 1-4%.

Hospitals are already near 70% compacity. They will be overrun the next few months or until a vaccine is found. It has a really high mortality rate for those elderly and immune compromised. I think it's a pretty big deal. Countries don't just shut down entirely (Italy) because of overreacting.

 

That expert was definitely talking scary stuff.  Death rate I expect to drop as testing can hopefully increase.  Currently at 3.5% I believe, but 80% of cases show no or only mild symptoms.  South Korea which has the most rigorous testing, checking 140,000 in a week only has a rate of 0.6% as their data can capture more of those mild cases in the overall total.  Elderly look to be at the highest risk and it’s strange how children are largely spared.  Kids under 14 were still testing positive at high rates but it was something crazy like 95% showed no or extremely mild symptoms.  I think a lot of us will end up getting this but if your reasonably healthy  it should end up being more than a nasty week long cold.  

[WNash]

People panic-buy. It’s weird but it happens. My worthless suggestion, based on nothing, is that buying things is an action that people think will help them when they feel completely powerless over a risk. Look what happens in the south with an inch of snow - all the milk and bread gets bought up.

I decided to take this seriously and told my mother not to fly up here next week. She’s old, and while she probably wouldn’t get sick from travel, the consequence if she does get sick is extreme. 

That’s the important issue. The outcomes are terrible for people who get very sick, and there aren’t enough ventilators for acute respiratory distress patients in even a moderately likely scenario.

Flu is a valid comparison but *not* to minimize this virus. With widespread vaccination that both lowers the transmission rate and the often the severity of flu cases, we still have tens of thousands of deaths every year. With *no* vaccine, more people will get sick and the number of severe cases will be higher. So flu may be a baseline, but prevention of COVID-19 transmission will be far lower with no vaccine, and severe cases will almost certainly be far higher.

It has been a genuinely long time since economic activity was disrupted so extremely. I lived in NYC on 9/11 and what happened did shut everything down for a few days. Gradually economic activity came back. Wars in this country, except the civil and revolutionary wars, tend to see increased productivity. We are accustomed to thinking that economic activity is as natural as the tides, but it’s really just stuff that people do, and if they can’t do things, it stops. It’s not the end of the world, but it is a real shock and nobody likes a shock. We don’t have to be making money all the time. In Italy they suspended mortgage payments! We have to consume essential goods to live, but there’s still enough economic activity to keep food on the shelves, so it wouldn’t be a total social breakdown. We just have a belief in this country that people have to be making money all the time, and that’s just not true.