WEATHER53 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 In early November the source region of cold air was excellent and in evidence and that continued into mid December. Then abruptly that stopped and never returned. Why? No one knows. Perhaps God or the myriad of alphabet indexes crafted to explain the unexplainable. By just before Christmas the first “return to cold in 10 days” came and went. Now the disaster was underway. History shows that when the very first “return to cold” fails that 80% of the time the colder never re-emerges. Feb 2007 was a big exception but that was 13 years ago so figure the odds on your own. Observation threads are still a delight and discussing 3-5 day leads is worthy but all the multi paragraphs clamoirings over unproven indexes and models really doesn’t lend anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: In early November the source region of cold air was excellent and in evidence and that continued into mid December. Then abruptly that stopped and never returned. Why? No one knows. Perhaps God or the myriad of alphabet indexes crafted to explain the unexplainable. By just before Christmas the first “return to cold in 10 days” came and went. Now the disaster was underway. History shows that when the very first “return to cold” fails that 80% of the time the colder never re-emerges. Feb 2007 was a big exception but that was 13 years ago so figure the odds on your own. Observation threads are still a delight and discussing 3-5 day leads is worthy but all the multi paragraphs clamoirings over unproven indexes and models really doesn’t lend anything. Unfavorable pac forcing combined with a strong PV. Years where there was a significant pattern flip from warm to cold during winter 1958,1960,1966,1972,1987,1993,1999,2000,2005,2007,2014,2016,2018. There are plenty of flips from cold to warm also. But by New Years the combo of a strong phase 5/6 mjo wave in conjunction with a strong PV coupling with the tpv hinted that this year was at risk to be a total dud. That combo is the leading cause of our total wasted years. This result isn’t a big surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 I blame PSU personally. If he hadn't have made that infamous post back in late December, this never would have happened. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Feb 2007 was a big exception but that was 13 years ago so figure the odds on your own. Answer:For 1 to 13 odds for winning;Probability of:Winning = (0.0714) or 7.1429%Losing = (0.9286) or 92.8571%"Odds for" winning: 1:13 "Odds against" winning: 13:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Every November that has less than 2” of rain at BWI/DCA has a winter that turns out to be a dumpster fire. It’s a better leading indicator than any model at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 fast PAC, fast ATL, PV staying home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 The Reaper paid off the Snow Gods. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 18 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Every November that has less than 2” of rain at BWI/DCA has a winter that turns out to be a dumpster fire. It’s a better leading indicator than any model at this point. If so then bingo and exactly. Analogs. We never had said that a dry November “”Causes” a bummer winter but when 80%of the time what you referenced we end up with a bummer winter then you must pay attention to that. Now, what caused the dryness and the bummer that followed can be up to the debating team but this method Is Forecadting instead of throwing a bunch of indexes into s pot and trying to make soup. Forecasting of weather, not all potential examples of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 20 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Every November that has less than 2” of rain at BWI/DCA has a winter that turns out to be a dumpster fire. It’s a better leading indicator than any model at this point. Based on a ridiculously small sample size of data considering the history of weather on this planet it's a worthless indicator, and is far more likely a coincidence than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 5 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: If so then bingo and exactly. Analogs. We never had said that a dry November “”Causes” a bummer winter but when 80%of the time what you referenced we end up with a bummer winter then you must pay attention to that. Now, what caused the dryness and the bummer that followed can be up to the debating team but this method Is Forecadting instead of throwing a bunch of indexes into s pot and trying to make soup. Forecasting of weather, not all potential examples of it. I must look into this analog thing. Never heard of it. Sounds like voodoo black magic to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 2 hours ago, Yeoman said: Based on a ridiculously small sample size of data considering the history of weather on this planet it's a worthless indicator, and is far more likely a coincidence than anything. I can think of something else that describes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can think of something else that describes That's cool.. I can think of 100s of things that describes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 What happened was, everyone predicted it would be decent and okay. Because that’s the case, I predict next winter will be hot and rainy in hopes that it does the opposite and leaves us with 3 feet of snow and temperatures below 32 for at least 2 weeks straight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Another awful Tenman thread. Poetry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 DC has now had the worst 4 year snowless stretch in the history of record keeping. Can we make it official? This is not "normal". We are not "due for a bad year". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2020 Author Share Posted March 1, 2020 5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Another awful Tenman thread. Poetry? Truth hurts especially when a cellar dwelling chump like you is powerless to do anything themselves. As always, when you cant contribute nor refute then personally attack the poster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Truth hurts especially when a cellar dwelling chump like you is powerless to do anything themselves. As always, when you cant contribute nor refute then personally attack the poster. What's your prediction for the coming summer? I predict that a cloud is gonna form somewhere in the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 9 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Truth hurts especially when a cellar dwelling chump like you is powerless to do anything themselves. As always, when you cant contribute nor refute then personally attack the poster. You answered it all in your op. No one knows. It's in the hands of god. NWP is useless hocus-pocus. end thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Poetry section starts here. Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 There once was a man from Nantucket... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Tenman thought it would be cold We didn’t think that was bold Even DT agreed, he said we’d all see Turns out winter was way oversold 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Low solar would lead to blocking It got the weenies excited and flocking The strat vortex began, and then it went ham All winter it was up there just mocking 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Low solar would lead to blocking It got the weenies excited and flocking The strat vortex began, and then it went ham All winter it was up there just mocking You are in a groove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 The central Pac ridge set up shop Hoffman said with it a trough wouldn’t pop How much for Boise? The weenies got noisy The AO just wouldn’t drop 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 For snow, negative AO is number one In absence, an EPO ridge may mitigate Otherwise DCA is done 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 This winter has been pretty poor, Though it’s been fun seeing friends of yore, And now the snowbirds begin the migration, Wounded from no snow elation, But one thing is certainly sure, Weenies always forget the torture, And come October they’ll begin to flock, To come back for another winter crock. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 52 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong. This is true, but let me help you with the rhyming part... Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong Move north where winters are cold and long Without lots of luck, winters here are brief, and suck 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Stratospheric vortex, consolidated Tightly wound ball of doom Weather weenies migrate to the panic room Bring it to an end The limitless winter gloom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 One thing that went wrong is within ourselves. We all are here because we like snow and cold.. Whether we admit it or not we have a built in bias toward cold and snow and that does indeed make us all to some extent make the objective data fit our preconceived bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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