SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 That Ontario band is INTENSE. And it looks nearly stationary. Just south of Watertown is getting destroyed. Copenhagen has been in it for the last 4 hours plus of probably 3-4”/hr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: That Ontario band is INTENSE. And it looks nearly stationary. Just south of Watertown is getting destroyed. Copenhagen has been in it for the last 4 hours plus of probably 3-4”/hr. I'm surprised how far north the band placement is...almost has a curved look like you'd see in the late fall when the lake water is warm...or its just due to the incredible amount of negative forces with tug hill and the reaper in the vicinity of the band... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Disappointed I didn’t listen to my friend. It’s time to go wagons north. I’m thinking I take 81 to Adams, then 11 north to Watertown. Won’t be an easy drive.. That main band is finally looking potent, and seems to be drifting north. Thoughts on that driving route from some of you locals? Definitely stay on 11. Do not get on 81. Do not get on 81. I wouldn't go any further north than Adams Center. Honestly not sure you can even make it safely North of Pierpoint Manor but give it a shot. Good luck. Be safe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 not holding my breath for this to happen... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight, lake effect off both lakes will continue through the night as the area of low pressure that is producing the cyclonic flow over the area slowly tracks east across Quebec. The trough associated with the vertically stacked low will provide synoptic moisture to the region through the night. With the approaching trough axis synoptic instability will also increase some as well. As the trough axis approaches, equilibrium heights will increase close to 7.5k ft off of Lake Erie and briefly approaching 10k ft off of Lake Ontario. Behind the trough will be a slight increase in cold air advection with 850H temps cooling a few more degrees for WNY to around -18C and to around -20C for the North Country. Off of Lake Erie, the northern edge of the snowband coming off the lake earlier in the day may make it as far north as the Buffalo Metro area and the Northtowns ahead of the approaching trough and with a 250-260 degree wind. Winds will be much lighter tonight than experienced in the earlier stages of this storm, but areas of blowing snow will still be possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The guy has Constableville and Inlet flipped. Oops. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 Now thats a band 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 52 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: not holding my breath for this to happen... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight, lake effect off both lakes will continue through the night as the area of low pressure that is producing the cyclonic flow over the area slowly tracks east across Quebec. The trough associated with the vertically stacked low will provide synoptic moisture to the region through the night. With the approaching trough axis synoptic instability will also increase some as well. As the trough axis approaches, equilibrium heights will increase close to 7.5k ft off of Lake Erie and briefly approaching 10k ft off of Lake Ontario. Behind the trough will be a slight increase in cold air advection with 850H temps cooling a few more degrees for WNY to around -18C and to around -20C for the North Country. Off of Lake Erie, the northern edge of the snowband coming off the lake earlier in the day may make it as far north as the Buffalo Metro area and the Northtowns ahead of the approaching trough and with a 250-260 degree wind. Winds will be much lighter tonight than experienced in the earlier stages of this storm, but areas of blowing snow will still be possible. Off Erie band is getting stronger and moving a bit north. Getting some flakes here at work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, winter_rules said: As a former area resident, I suggest taking Route 11 the whole way, or at least get off I81 before you get into the heavy snow. I think there’s a decent chance of I81 turning into a dangerous parking lot. On Route 11 you can turn around or pull into a parking lot at any time. On I81 you are stuck until you get to the next exit which could be hours away in this type of weather. Keep your fuel tank full along with water, snacks, and blankets inside the car. Agree with that 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Well one more day here in Redfield. We had 10” yesterday. May ride north a bit today and see what’s happening. Hoping things drop south to give us another 6” at least. Heading out early tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It was one hell of a drive but I made it to Watertown. Absolute obliteration here. SN++ That should be a good spot most of the day as winds even go further SW this afternoon ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 I so want to go to my camp this weekend in Old Forge. They will have 20 before this ends. Winter has suddenly appeared there with over 50 inches this month. My wife will change the locks if I go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Nice video! Thanks Looks like that band will peter out before it can cause any damage south. What a bust this whole thing was (unless you lived on the Tug). Roc and BUF will likely end with little to nothing after BUF had both in 12-18” ranges just prior to the ‘storm’. BUF should NEVER paint more than what the consensus model total is. I mean, where were they getting those totals? You do a blizzard warning for a LOCK. For a storm that will meet the public’s expectations of what a blizzard is over a broad population area. Not for the toothless wonders up in their cabins in no mans land (I’m jealous of them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My dad did Army Reserve summer camp in the Watertown area. Usually a late August early September Two week period. I can’t remember exactly middle to late 50’s he told us that local weather folk back then told the post to get its shovels ready. I don’t believe the need materialized but it must have been a potent late summer cold air mass. He was stationed up there for weekend periods during the cold season. I remember him telling us some intense snowfall stories. Wonderful video and memories, thank you. As always ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Hoover Beach in Hamburg 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 What was the snow depth between Turin and Lowville prior to the storm? Like 1-2ft depending on elevation? Was thinking of doing some snowshoe/snowboarding on Sunday. I wish that band was sitting about 10-20 miles south. I think they've picked up about 20" so far including the synoptic event as snow ridge reported 18" total at 7am and the place I'm eyeing is 5 miles north. Even more would be great. If I do end up going I will setup my camera and tripod and get some good solo powder shots on video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Hoover Beach in Hamburg lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 On Tug Hill between Turin and Constableville. Taken By my brother about 11:00am today while the band is north of the area. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said: What was the snow depth between Turin and Lowville prior to the storm? Like 1-2ft depending on elevation? Was thinking of doing some snowshoe/snowboarding on Sunday. I wish that band was sitting about 10-20 miles south. I think they've picked up about 20" so far including the synoptic event as snow ridge reported 18" total at 7am and the place I'm eyeing is 5 miles north. Even more would be great. If I do end up going I will setup my camera and tripod and get some good solo powder shots on video. You pretty much nailed everything. Much less down along Rte 12. Much more up on the hill. It looks like a solid 18”+ of new snow on the hill through Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 A lot of negatives to the bands off Erie today. Diurnal influences, shear, wind speeds, and dry air. Look for most of those issues too lessen throughout the afternoon. Should get a stronger band especially tonight, going to be a close call around here. Have had light snow the majority of the day here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 Still a really strong band off Ontario north of watertown. That band will strengthen and sink south later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 The models seem to be keying in on a WNW lake effect event Saturday into early Sunday. I sure hope they're right. The fact that the RGEM is showing it makes me more optimistic, as I feel it is one of the best with LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 I think I saw a few flakes float by the past couple days, Wow, talk about busts, lol, and they still say 8" for the area, just nuts!Oswego county needs to be split in half and let KBGM have the Southern half, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 There's a nice disturbance coming through thats should shake things up a bit for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: The models seem to be keying in on a WNW lake effect event Saturday into early Sunday. I sure hope they're right. The fact that the RGEM is showing it makes me more optimistic, as I feel it is one of the best with LES. Interesting to see how far North the main band off L.O. has moved. I thought it was supposed to be working it's way south...Congrats Thousand Islands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 School closings are always tough. In the city, and in Amherst here, we got roughly 2" and blowing snow is not an issue. I drove up to Lockport/Newfane area, and it quickly looks like 6+" and the open roads there are not a fun experience when gusts kick up. I'm always on the side of safety and giving kids off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Yeah the SW that's heading our way is much stronger than 1st anticipated I guess cause I never saw it getting to the islands but lo and behold, that's where it is, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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