LakeEffectKing Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 48 minutes ago, swva said: With regards to the LE band off Ontario, it is my experience that if we do in fact have upper lakes connection, many models tend to place the band a bit too far north. Though trivial to some, I'd slide the heaviest amounts south by 10-15 miles to include central/N. Oswego Co. (and the northern half of Oneida Co.) The Tug hill area of S. Lewis Co. will, of course, be hit hard as well, as the band broadens inland/upslope. Areas like Parish, Mexico, Camden, IMO, will/should be included in the 2-3' contour. Could see some thundersnow as we progress into Thurs. night/Friday morning. Wolfie/swva will get clobbered. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 hour ago, swva said: Wow they went even bigger haha I was expecting the opposite.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 It's impressive when even the gfs throws out 2 feet lol Was one of it's better runs yet.. Good hit once again for WNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Euro was also a nice hit for WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Kbgm map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Going to be fun trying to get the old lady to work Friday am lol Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9am. Temperature falling to around 25 by 11am. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 1am, then areas of blowing snow after 3am. Low around 15. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before noon. High near 26. West wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Going to be fun trying to get the old lady to work Friday am lol Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9am. Temperature falling to around 25 by 11am. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 1am, then areas of blowing snow after 3am. Low around 15. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before noon. High near 26. West wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Ok thursday night is a whole refrigerator truck of packaged weenies... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Kbgm map Struggling with this map here in Skaneateles. I just don’t see 8”+ happening. Hope I’m wrong! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 A little to North for my liking D2.. Granted it still looks good lol That would be a sharp cutoff just a few miles to my south in the town of Altmar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Kbgm map I'd sell that. Divide by 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Could pick up some bonus NW Flow high ratio stuff day 4 as well (lol), as it may be more mult-bands/enhancement rather than a single band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I'd sell that. Divide by 3. Binghamton seems a bit unsure lol There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to how broad or narrow the Lake Ontario band develops...and also the exact position of the primary axis. If the flow backs even slightly to the south, this will lift the band further north and out of northern Oneida County. At this time it appears the southern fringe of the band will pose a persistent threat for heavy snow over far northern Oneida County Thursday through most of Saturday. Given the amount of uncertainty, have decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for a long duration heavy lake effect snow event for northern Oneida during this time frame. We have also decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Onondaga, Madison and southern Oneida County starting a bit later...Friday morning...and going through Saturday. There also still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing of the southward movement of this band, but confidence continues to increase that when it does occur, this area will see a period of heavy lake effect snow which could impact travel conditions going into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Let the social media frenzy over a foot of snow begin! Already talk of the B word... Oh my! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 50 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Let the social media frenzy over a foot of snow begin! Already talk of the B word... Oh my! What's Aaron saying? He still on TV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Binghamton seems a bit unsure lol There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to how broad or narrow the Lake Ontario band develops...and also the exact position of the primary axis. If the flow backs even slightly to the south, this will lift the band further north and out of northern Oneida County. At this time it appears the southern fringe of the band will pose a persistent threat for heavy snow over far northern Oneida County Thursday through most of Saturday. Given the amount of uncertainty, have decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for a long duration heavy lake effect snow event for northern Oneida during this time frame. We have also decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Onondaga, Madison and southern Oneida County starting a bit later...Friday morning...and going through Saturday. There also still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing of the southward movement of this band, but confidence continues to increase that when it does occur, this area will see a period of heavy lake effect snow which could impact travel conditions going into the weekend. If they are basing that map and the WSW solely on LES...no way I'd buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, vortmax said: What's Aaron saying? He still on TV? Yup... He’s hyping up area wide school closings Thursday and Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yup... He’s hyping up area wide school closings Thursday and Friday... He was a snow hound at school too...we were in the same Met grad class... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: If they are basing that map and the WSW solely on LES...no way I'd buy that. Yeah looking at the P&C it's all rain for the synoptic system, they have 70%-90% pops from Friday through Saturday night which is what they are banking on lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Boy that's close for kbuf, during the heaviest Precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 25 minutes ago, vortmax said: What's Aaron saying? He still on TV? Mentkowski? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Mentkowski? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2020 Author Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Boy that's close for kbuf, during the heaviest Precipitation.. Going to ride that line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2020 Author Share Posted February 26, 2020 Heaviest snow looks to hit overnight which will help with accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: Yup Lol I've known Aaron since grade school. Like most of us here on this forum he is definitely a snowhound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 There will be a certain about of dynamic lift helping convert to snow. Do the models account for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Lol I've known Aaron since grade school. Like most of us here on this forum he is definitely a snowhound Definitely, we graduated from OSU together in the Met class. Good times in the met labs... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2020 Author Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: Definitely, we graduated from OSU together in the Met class. Good times in the met labs... He's actually a really good local met, him and Andy Parker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2020 Author Share Posted February 26, 2020 Looks like 6-12" for just the synoptic portion of the storm for WNY on the NAM, really sharp cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like 6-12" for just the synoptic portion of the storm for WNY on the NAM, really sharp cut off Strange to see just basically the 3 western counties with warning criteria snows.. It ALMOST has the characteristics of shifting lake effect with its eastward extent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Another yawner for Syracuse. Enjoy, Western New Yorkers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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