March Medium/Long Range Disco

[cbmclean]

LONG LONG LONG term but I'll just leave this here.  Somebody make sure that Maestrobjwa doesn't see this.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

LONG LONG LONG term but I'll just leave this here.  Somebody make sure that Maestrobjwa doesn't see this.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

 

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

The last decent winter in my yard (slightly above avg snowfall) was 2017-18. Given worse options- like the complete disaster that is this winter- I might actually welcome a Nina.

[CAPE]

Well at least the GFS is getting back to its old routine with perpetual day 10 digital snowstorms every few runs.

Ji likes that.

[Ji]

Eps has me in a solid 2 lol

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

Eps has me in a solid 2 lol

Percent?

[psuhoffman]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

If I had to guess right now based on historical probabilities and recent trends in long term global patterns, next year is likely to suck also but not as bad as this. A 5-10” winter around DC would be my best guess right now. 

There is a lot of time for that to change. Maybe the warmer waters in the IO and western PAC driving the unfavorable mjo shifts.  Maybe enso changes trajectory. Maybe the long term AO state flips. But that’s a lot of maybe. Better to just expect it to suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

[psuhoffman]

It has always been common for DC to go through multiple year runs of sucky winters. But the trend for 50 years has been for those suck years to be even worse.  Unfortunately it’s bevoming quite normal for DC to go long stretches with very little snowfall. The good years are becoming better too and big storms bigger...but I think most snow lovers would prefer a more even distribution and not as long a wait between good times. But that is our current climo. 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It has always been common for DC to go through multiple year runs of sucky winters. But the trend for 50 years has been for those suck years to be even worse.  Unfortunately it’s bevoming quite normal for DC to go long stretches with very little snowfall. The good years are becoming better too and big storms bigger...but I think most snow lovers would prefer a more even distribution and not as long a wait between good times. But that is our current climo. 

I agree. Someone asked me on my weather page what role climate change might be playing in the lack of snow this winter and past winters....this was my response. 
 

Good questions and it’s a complex answer in my opinion it isn’t simple. When we talk about climate change/global warming in relation to local weather and climate records, we have to remember that really legit weather record have only been kept for less than 200 years. But also have to keep in mind the rapid industrialization of urban areas in the same last 200 years. One would be a fool to think that rapid industrialization has played no role in weather and climate, particularly in urban areas over the last couple centuries. But I still believe our weather is dominated by cycles and weather patterns. The reason for the lack of snow this year is mainly simply because the pattern doesn’t support it. Storms have tracked to our west and that will always put us on the warmer side of the track with southerly flow. So climate change/global warming not only argues for a overall rise in global temperatures (which is happening) but also more extreme weather which is also happening. So over the last 30-40 years around Baltimore I think there’s been a higher frequency in Lower snow winters but I also believe there’s been a higher frequency in big snow storms over the last 30-40 years if that makes sense. So in my opinion, the years of many small to moderate snows that get us to near average are going to be more difficult to come by, but we’ll still see the occasional winters with 1 or multiple large snowstorms

[snowmagnet]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It has always been common for DC to go through multiple year runs of sucky winters. But the trend for 50 years has been for those suck years to be even worse.  Unfortunately it’s bevoming quite normal for DC to go long stretches with very little snowfall. The good years are becoming better too and big storms bigger...but I think most snow lovers would prefer a more even distribution and not as long a wait between good times. But that is our current climo. 

True, but we also had about 5 -6 consecutive years of really good winters (minus ‘12-‘13’) from 2010-2016.  So the past few years have felt out of the norm after that stretch.  I don’t remember a worse winter than this one. I’m in Fairfax where we have seen about 2” total this year. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

95-96 was nina at tail end of solar min so never say it's a lock to be a bust.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Yeah cuz we’ll get good wrap around with a low off Cape Cod!

[Weather Will]

I am still hoping for a late week phase.  Trying to find a four leaf clover in my grass which is already turning green.

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Agreed. Monthly forecasting is a crap shoot. Seasonal even more. Lol at anyone guessing on next winter’s outcome on February 29th of 2020. 

Yea that would be almost as bad as using the CFS to predict an mjo phase 8. 

[psuhoffman]

The late week setup screams painfully close miss to me which would be the perfect way to end this season. 

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Your winter forecast for this winter was awful. Now you are on record for next winter already. Sometimes it’s best to stop digging 

Yes the WAG I made in November was awful. By New Years I knew we were screwed for the season. I seem to remember you calling me stupid for cancelling winter around New Years but now you’re going to criticize me for not canceling it sooner?  SMH. 

[psuhoffman]

@Mersky I much prefer and am more comfortable analyzing synoptic setups within day 10 but we haven’t had much opportunity for that lately. 

[Kmlwx]

47 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Your winter forecast for this winter was awful. Now you are on record for next winter already. Sometimes it’s best to stop digging 

Someone is a little cranky today eh?

psu is one of the most respected posters in our subforum and even the entire forum at-large. Nobody scores a 100% in the world of weather. You seem awfully inflammatory...

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

All I said is stop digging. No one knows what next winter will be like. You are the very first person to make a call on it. Good luck!!!! 

My educated guess was purely probabilities based.  

Since 2000 we’ve had 7 nino years. 5/7 ninos were above avg (71%) with a mean of 25.1” and median of 18.3”. 

But currently the odds do not favor a nino next year. In the 13 non ninos since 2000 1/13 (8%) were above avg with a mean of 9” and a median of 7.5”. 

So currently if we get anything other than a nino odds say there is a 92% chance of below avg snowfall and 7.5” is the most likely statistical outcome. 

So I said 5-10”. It’s a WAG purely based on statistical probability. 

Sorry if I didn’t incorporate enough CFS MJO for you. 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

I am still hoping for a late week phase.  Trying to find a four leaf clover in my grass which is already turning green.

Four leaf clovers are hard to come by but with the terrible weather pattern we've had, next week  is close enough to score a coup, me thinks.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Someone is a little cranky today eh?

psu is one of the most respected posters in our subforum and even the entire forum at-large. Nobody scores a 100% in the world of weather. You seem awfully inflammatory...

He has been a useless troll since the day he showed up. He spreads it around too. We aren't the only subforum that gets to "enjoy" his lame shtick.

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Real nice moisture transport on the Ukmet  hr 144.

Is that a rain storm?

[dallen7908]

Low 40s and rain unless you head to Canaan Valley or Garrett County where accumulations of up to 6" are possible for the system according to the UMKMET through Saturday morning

[Amped]

GFS still hasn't figured out that out there's going to be a storm along the east coast Thurs-Fri. Every other piece of medium range guidance has.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The late week setup screams painfully close miss to me which would be the perfect way to end this season. 

This would be a better miss to end the season.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The UKMET looks like wet snow as depicted here.

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, Mersky said:

Your winter forecast for this winter was awful. Now you are on record for next winter already. Sometimes it’s best to stop digging 

LOL go away.

[WinterWxLuvr]

My winter forecast for next year is some cold, some warm, some snow, some rain, some ice, some sun.

Now just stand back and marvel at my forecasting skill.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

My winter forecast for next year is some cold, some warm, some snow, some rain, some ice, some sun.

Now just stand back and marvel at my forecasting skill.

Don’t forget wind. And I received no ice this year so 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

95-96 was nina at tail end of solar min so never say it's a lock to be a bust.

I knew somebody was gonna bring that up, lol (I meant to add that I was excluding that year) Yeah but look how anomalous that is. I have trouble factoring that into what I'd expect from a nina because that happened just one time in 130+ years--so probably not a good idea to count on that. Safer to bet on what they've normally done aside from that one data point!