Weather Will Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 WB 0Z GFS very similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 WB 0Z GEFS not as enthusiastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 NWS 4am discussion. The high to our north will migrate eastward over the Northeast Sunday night as zonal flow aloft deteriorates and a shortwave trough digs into the Ohio Valley. Come Monday morning, surface low pressure will develop near the North Carolina coast, tracking north northeast throughout the day. The resultant weather locally will be precipitation breaking out overnight Sunday and lingering through much of the day on Monday. With the high to our northeast helping to supply chilly conditions, wintry precip concerns emerge for our Blue Ridge westward zones late Sunday night and into the day on Monday. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate the potential for accumulating snowfall across portions of northern and western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and western Virginia. Will iron out the finer details in the coming days, but model consistency does bring confidence in at least a slight winter storm threat for accumulating snowfall in the areas noted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 WB 6Z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 WB 6Z GFS nothing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 One final insult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 42 minutes ago, jaydreb said: One final insult. Looks ok to me lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Guidance overall is bleeding warmer each run. It’s been offset for now by a stronger system dynamically cooling the column (for the nw areas) but if the north trend continues the end won’t be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Guidance overall is bleeding warmer each run. It’s been offset for now by a stronger system dynamically cooling the column (for the nw areas) but if the north trend continues the end won’t be good. The problem seems to be that the sfc high to our northeast is moving out faster than was being shown, leading to the sfc winds shifting from north in the morning to southeast by the end of the day. In the NAM and GFS, that allows the sfc dew points, which start the day in the low teens, to recover to the low 30's by evening. That certainly won't get the job done. If we can somehow hold in northeast sfc winds for more of the day, we'll be able to keep the drier air in place and potentially reap some wet bulb benefits when the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: An earlier onset probably wouldn't hurt either . To a point the north shift in the thermal boundary can be offset by better dynamic cooling or faster onset but only to a point. If the north trend continues we won’t like the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: An earlier onset probably wouldn't hurt either . The 12z icon shows what I’m talking about. Stronger system. Faster onset. Better thump of precip. But all rain. The north shift of the entire thermal gradient finally overcame what the benefits from those other factors can compensate for. If I had to bet that’s where this is heading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 I would love the latest trends if I was in northern PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Why am I only wrong when I’m optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Why am I only wrong when I’m optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 This seems like one where our far northwest friends have a shot but down closer to the cities, we are likely enduring one final heartbreak to a wretched season. Hope it holds on and pans out for the rest of you though. Would make for a really fun Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Euro took away the snow chance. Shocker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Too bad....back to work. WB 12Z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 30 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Too bad....back to work. WB 12Z EURO It can always trend a couple hundred miles further north, but we'll never get it to trend 30 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Been telling you guys since early in the winter, the euro is only wrong when it shows snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Amped said: It can always trend a couple hundred miles further north, but we'll never get it to trend 30 miles south If it had snow in Fredericksburg or Staunton, your statement would be true in reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Been telling you guys since early in the winter, the euro is only wrong when it shows snow LWX in their afternoon AFD talks snow and potential for a few inches of wet snow accums out west and into the higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Been telling you guys since early in the winter, the euro is only wrong when it shows snow Being on the southern fringes of projected snowfall at day 3-5 absent blocking is never ever where you want to be. I could run off a long list of similar setups where even the euro was too far south at 72-100 hours with the southern edge of snow. We were never where I wanted to see guidance even on the best runs. The trend north happened exactly how/when I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Setups matter. North trends don’t happen if a storm is de amplifying. And that doesn’t always mean arctic cold. A storm can shear out or be suppressed by a compressed flow. A north trend doesn’t happen if there is strong blocking or a northern stream feature that’s compressing the flow over top. But in a progressive pattern with an amplifying system a north trend the final 72 hours is still a good bet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 This is a CAD setup, correct? I’m sure it’ll get a little colder. I definitely didn’t hate the 18z ICON. I’m sure we can at least get one last good NAM’ing out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Haven't been able to look to deeply into this threat but latest Eps still gives areas near the m/d line some hope of at least a coating and possibly a couple inches. Verbatim this run a bit better then 18z and similar to yesterday's 12z . The bleeding that others have mentioned has halted for now but any further north at all and it's a cold rain for all. As is it's a cold rain for i95 for sure . I'll hug the CMC for now Cmc actually holds the high position over NE the longest compared to Gfs and Euro. Doesn't give too much of a warm fuzzy feeling I admire your ability to be excited by the prospects of a relatively insignificant frozen event. I should be clear I am commenting on our chances at a meaningful snowfall. I could still see our area get a slushy inch or two before being washed away by rain...but if that happens and PA gets 6”+ to me that will be just one more knife in the back from this winter. At this point if we’re not going to get an actual legit storm I’d rather it be warm out and I saw and still see our chances of getting more than a minor accumulation washed away by rain as extremely low. Not impossible but unlikely. But please don’t let my lack of interest ruin your enjoyment of a minor frozen event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: The bleeding that others have mentioned has halted for now but any further north at all and it's a cold rain for all. As is it's a cold rain for i95 for sure . In my opinion the stellar correlation to the AO, which has held positive since December 22, 2019 was, and is a great forecast tool. The AO is still heading higher in the short term. Never a chance for any snow despite the earlier modeling. Even low temps that might have broken freezing this weekend are in the mid 30's for my region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 6Z EURO WB trended a little cooler at the surface Monday am, but still above freezing so maybe it makes no difference....not much on the ground. Snow in the air would lighten my mood. Another casual observation. EURO was the last to show the NC accumulations in the event last month if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Well the Icon turned into an awful run...No snow for anybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 GFS pretty awful too...As if this wasnt predictable...not that most of us had a chance anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2020 Author Share Posted March 20, 2020 Its been over for a long time, folks. Get out and enjoy the sun and 80 degree temps. Just keep 2 meters apart. Too bad the chances for decent convection later on looks meager on guidance. Another thing we perpetually suck at. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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