March Medium/Long Range Disco

[MD Snow]

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I feel like if that was going to happen we’d see it.  Seems the GFS, right or wrong, is fairly steady last 3 runs.  Hard to imagine a large shift at h5 this late in the game.  

Well, our NS system is currently south of the Aleutian Islands. Still has a lot of real estate to cover. We've all seen crazier shifts happen with less lead time. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Well, our NS system is currently south of the Aleutian Islands. Still has a lot of real estate to cover. We've all seen crazier shifts happen with less lead time. 

Fair enough.  My work cancelled all travel until further notice.  I have the bandwidth to track this until we reach the cliff. 

[MD Snow]

No one's really mentioned it but CMC, GFS and EURO all have a coastal idea with cold not that far off for the March 11-12 timeframe. A long shot but something to keep an eye on. Only10 days out now. GFS has been hinting at it for a couple days now.  

 

18z gefs for the timeframe. Not a bad signal 10 days out. 

[psuhoffman]

18z Gefs went the wrong way.  

[MD Snow]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z Gefs went the wrong way.  

Am I missing something? Are you referring to the fact that it seems to have consolidated around a more OTS solution? Doesn't seem that different at H5. Not a lot of outliers. We are inside of 4 days now. Which is when the GEFS begins to play follow the OP more often. Right? It's always been a long shot and I guess the 18z GEFS drives that home. 

[Ji]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z Gefs went the wrong way.  

for march 12th? too far away to worry about that just yet

[Weather Will]

Big step back on 18Z EPS.  Should not be shocked but disappointed.  No maps from me this run.

[psuhoffman]

At least I won’t have to waste time I don’t really have on analysis tomorrow.  

[MD Snow]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The ss sw on the 18z Eps is definitely quicker ..outracing the NS this run . I didn't see anything else that was significant or worth mentioning. I'd think a stronger ss sw going fwd  would be slower and want to go poleward helping with any phasing ...so that's what I'm rooting for . A little early to cliff jump imo. 

But it's march and we haven't gotten any snow all year...haha

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The ss sw on the 18z Eps is definitely quicker ..outracing the NS this run . I didn't see anything else that was significant or worth mentioning. I'd think a stronger ss sw going fwd  would be slower and want to go poleward helping with any phasing ...so that's what I'm rooting for . A little early to cliff jump imo. 

There was a trend weaker and north with the NS also.  It was a bunch of small almost imperceptible adjustments but they all were the wrong way which isn’t going to work when it was barely a marginal setup to begin with. Frankly the rule with these NS SS capture/phase setups is they almost always end up slower and too far northeast for us. This reminds me of the early March 2018 storm that teased us the day before. I knew that rule but having EVERY guidance 12 hours out showing snow here got me to abandon my pessimism with such setups.  I remember trying to convince myself with “ the euro is showing 8” just 18 hours out. It can’t be that wrong”. Then the hrrr started shifting east every hour. Then the run that night just hours before it should have started shifted everything 100 miles east.   Never again. I will never ever ever fee at all confident or even hopeful in these late NS phase scenarios until the fatties are falling. Yea once in a blue moon they work but 99% they tease us and end up northeast of us. 

ETA:  if the SS trends more amped that could change the equation here. A west dig in the NS too but that’s trending the wrong way and usually the adjustment there is northeast not southwest.  

[BristowWx]

The NAM has sobered up from HH.  

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

GFS continuing its step back. Hardly any precipitation now. Not that this was much to track to begin with but it’s all over now 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a trend weaker and north with the NS also.  It was a bunch of small almost imperceptible adjustments but they all were the wrong way which isn’t going to work when it was barely a marginal setup to begin with. Frankly the rule with these NS SS capture/phase setups is they almost always end up slower and too far northeast for us. This reminds me of the early March 2018 storm that teased us the day before. I knew that rule but having EVERY guidance 12 hours out showing snow here got me to abandon my pessimism with such setups.  I remember trying to convince myself with “ the euro is showing 8” just 18 hours out. It can’t be that wrong”. Then the hrrr started shifting east every hour. Then the run that night just hours before it should have started shifted everything 100 miles east.   Never again. I will never ever ever fee at all confident or even hopeful in these late NS phase scenarios until the fatties are falling. Yea once in a blue moon they work but 99% they tease us and end up northeast of us. 

ETA:  if the SS trends more amped that could change the equation here. A west dig in the NS too but that’s trending the wrong way and usually the adjustment there is northeast not southwest.  

Isn't this the essence of why Ninas don't work here? If you're more likely to have a stronger NS wave...and have to rely more on that, aren't those kind of scenarios gonna be more likely overall? (Now I don't understand why it is that in Ninas, everything seems to want to shift  east or northeast, smh) 

And that particular storm you're referencing...was that that one where the GL low screwed everything up? Or are you referring to the 2017 one when we ended up with two inches of sleet? Lol

[jewell2188]

And we were tracking what?

[Ji]

We always have the crossroads night

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

We always have the crossroads night

 

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Isn't this the essence of why Ninas don't work here? If you're more likely to have a stronger NS wave...and have to rely more on that, aren't those kind of scenarios gonna be more likely overall? (Now I don't understand why it is that in Ninas, everything seems to want to shift  east or northeast, smh) 

And that particular storm you're referencing...was that that one where the GL low screwed everything up? Or are you referring to the 2017 one when we ended up with two inches of sleet? Lol

Yes. Not all Nina’s are the same.  Some can be reasonably cold and active but even in those we still tend to end up about median or slightly below mean snowfall. The reason is the lack of SS and fast NS. There is also usually a lack of NAO blocking in a Nina that’s because the central pac pattern is often similar to this year and that pattern is destructive to high latitude blocking.   We have all of that now.  The only factor we have is chaos from March.  

The storm I’m referencing was in March 2018 around March 8 or so.  It was a similar late phase between a NS and weak SS wave.   Teased my area and especially NE MD then pulled the rug out just a few hours before it would have started.

This was the NAM and euro from just 18 hours before the storm.  

But this was the actual results  

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, jewell2188 said:

And we were tracking what?

You knew this was how this was ending. 

[psuhoffman]

Friend just told me JB stole my March 2018 storm comparison this morning. 

[Baltimorewx]

NAM follows suit and completely misses the phase...pretty much no precip in the area from either the coastal or ULL

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

NAM follows suit and completely misses the phase...pretty much no precip in the area from either the coastal or ULL

I defended you post last night but now it’s kind of pouring on. We’ve established this is likely dead now. Last nights 18z/0z/6z trends pretty much killed it. The status quo is now “it’s not happening” so pointing out every run that will show “it’s not happening” from here on out is just piling on. At this point we should probably only bring it up if something unexpected comes up and things trend back towards a possible event. As of now it’s dead. 

[Ji]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I defended you post last night but now it’s kind of pouring on. We’ve established this is likely dead now. Last nights 18z/0z/6z trends pretty much killed it. The status quo is now “it’s not happening” so pointing out every run that will show “it’s not happening” from here on out is just piling on. At this point we should probably only bring it up if something unexpected comes up and things trend back towards a possible event. As of now it’s dead. 

i forgot but when did the boxing day storm make its comeback? Wasnt it dead for a while but then in the last 72 hours..it made a huge move back?

[Baltimorewx]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I defended you post last night but now it’s kind of pouring on. We’ve established this is likely dead now. Last nights 18z/0z/6z trends pretty much killed it. The status quo is now “it’s not happening” so pointing out every run that will show “it’s not happening” from here on out is just piling on. At this point we should probably only bring it up if something unexpected comes up and things trend back towards a possible event. As of now it’s dead. 

Darn, I was about to post about the GFS....but fair enough.  It was still model discussion though

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

i forgot but when did the boxing day storm make its comeback? Wasnt it dead for a while but then in the last 72 hours..it made a huge move back?

Yes and so did the March 18 storm I Referenced. So did Dec 2000. The MO for “these” is often to look good long range, trend bad, then tease us at some point in the final 48 hours only to fall apart right at nowcast time. I wouldn’t be shocked if this makes one more tease just to inflict more pain. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Darn, I was about to post about the GFS....but fair enough.  It was still model discussion though

Yea Im personally not bothered and don’t mean to be antagonistic, but at this point I think it’s clearly established that this is probably not happening so more posts saying “bad run” is just redundant. If something unexpected happens then it’s worth bringing up. But that’s just my opinion. 

[psuhoffman]

The inverted trough feature is worth keeping an eye on. Even that is likely a fail but there is a chance it could impact the northeast parts of this forum. 

[Baltimorewx]

I suppose ~March 12 is still worth watching...verbatim GFS tracks the low right over us but any adjustment in heights/better blocking and maybe we get thrown a bone

[Prestige Worldwide]

Strong blocking setting up for April?  U just can’t make this stuff up 

[Baltimorewx]

1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Strong blocking setting up for April?  U just can’t make this stuff up 

I feel like Ive read somone say the CFS has been awful. So perhaps its wrong. One can hope

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I feel like Ive read somone say the CFS has been awful. So perhaps its wrong. One can hope

Won’t matter much.  Even with blocking most days in April will be warm. Maybe we get a few days of 40s but most days will be 50+ early April and 60+ after April 15th even in a -NAO. 

Even when we get snow in April it’s often 50+ the day before and after. Sustained cold is very unlikely.