Weather Will Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Interesting Gefs run. H5 has the trailing ns energy diving through the northern plains catching and phasing in with our initial ull. Lots of members with strong surface lows closer to the coast and some wintery for far nw areas. WB 18Z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 this is an interesting scenario. I am on my off week next week so this might be a nice diversion from the obvious. We could all use some snow tv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Look at this shit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 18z EPS...2 percent chance at Day 5....wilk keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Look at this shit This actually goes against what many private mets think this coming April will be like, but the weather will do its own thing. Looking further ahead, some analogs suggest a cooler summer and others a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 you know this was inevitable. We all joked about it. Watch April be cold. 2020..who knew...I think we will all remember this year until our last breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 So now the GFS decides it wants to trend south with a coastal in the medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 20 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Look at this shit Hard pass on that crap. Sun and 70 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Amped said: So now the GFS decides it wants to trend south with a coastal in the medium range Is that good for us? Afraid to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Is that good for us? Afraid to look Nothing is good for us this time a year except waiting another 8 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 WB 0Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 As a poster in the forum just to your north & a long time lurker here, I thought that you guys would enjoy the 0z Canadian for the Wednesday coastal storm. We are less than 100 hours out, but unfortunately the Canadian doesn’t have much support from the other models at this time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: As a poster in the forum just to your north & a long time lurker here, I thought that you guys would enjoy the 0z Canadian for the Wednesday coastal storm. We are less than 100 hours out, but unfortunately the Canadian doesn’t have much support from the other models at this time. April 10th 500's look more promising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 5 hours ago, Wonderdog said: April 10th 500's look more promising. no no no no! im going against the seasonal freeze charts and planting my garden now. the trend is your friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 The GEM capitulated to the GFS southern track and ots. A continuation of a recent weeks pattern that finds much of Virginia/Maryland now beginning to suffer a soil moisture deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, stormy said: The GEM capitulated to the GFS southern track and ots. A continuation of a recent weeks pattern that finds much of Virginia/Maryland now beginning to suffer a soil moisture deficit. I can assure you fine people there is no soil moisture deficit in Warrenton! I just tilled up my garden and the clay is saturated! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said: I can assure you fine people there is no soil moisture deficit in Warrenton! I just tilled up my garden and the clay is saturated! I can assure you that a topsoil moisture deficit is developing over much of central and northern Virginia. This has nothing to do with the subsoil clay moisture in your garden. Clay retains moisture long after topsoil is dry. During the first 29 days of March I received 38% of normal rainfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 25 minutes ago, stormy said: I can assure you that a topsoil moisture deficit is developing over much of central and northern Virginia. This has nothing to do with the subsoil clay moisture in your garden. Clay retains moisture long after topsoil is dry. During the first 29 days of March I received 38% of normal rainfall! when i get home I'll take a picture of the shoes I used while tilling my garden. I grew 3 inches from all the clay/soil stuck to the bottom of my shoes. my entire yard is wet not just my garden. I'm looking forward to things drying out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 26 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: when i get home I'll take a picture of the shoes I used while tilling my garden. I grew 3 inches from all the clay/soil stuck to the bottom of my shoes. my entire yard is wet not just my garden. I'm looking forward to things drying out I am very happy for you with all that rain, but regional stats. don't lie. Congratulations! But, you have probably ruined the soil in your garden by getting in it when it was far too wet!! I made that mistake about 20 years ago. It took years to get the 'clay brick" soil reconditioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 1 minute ago, stormy said: I am very happy for you with all that rain, but regional stats. don't lie. Congratulations! But, you have probably ruined the soil in your garden by getting in it when it was far too wet!! I made that mistake about 20 years ago. It took years to get the 'clay brick" soil reconditioned. you arent a very happy go lucky guy are you? very hyper critcal of others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 1 hour ago, stormy said: I can assure you that a topsoil moisture deficit is developing over much of central and northern Virginia. This has nothing to do with the subsoil clay moisture in your garden. Clay retains moisture long after topsoil is dry. During the first 29 days of March I received 38% of normal rainfall! Everywhere you go here it’s squish. Mowed today at 2 pm. Full sun for hours. Mower tires instantly wet when they started rolling. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Everywhere you go here it’s squish. Mowed today at 2 pm. Full sun for hours. Mower tires instantly wet when they started rolling. There is no longer a moisture deficit here, despite what any map shows. When the seasonal wetland on my property expands and drowns, the water table is charged. It took a while after the late summer/fall drought, but 4.3" this month has it exactly as it normally is. It fills when the water table has broken the surface, as it is low and there is no natural drainage there, so it sits until the trees become active and the longer, warmer days help to dry it up. I just hit it with larvicide, as I always do at the end of March. Normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There is no longer a moisture deficit here, despite what any map shows. When the seasonal wetland on my property expands and drowns, the water table is charged. It took a while after the late summer/fall drought, but 4.3" this month has it exactly as it normally is. It fills when the water table has broken the surface, as it is low and there is no natural drainage there, so it sits until the trees become active and the longer, warmer days help to dry it up. I just hit it with larvicide, as I always do at the end of March. Normal. You speak with a reasonable tone. Thank you for that. As you may notice the date on the short term map is March 21. What some seem to be unaware of or defensive about is that portions of extreme northern Virginia and Maryland received very beneficial rainfall yesterday. Cross Junction in Frederick County reported .50". Others without doubt received significantly more. If you travel south from this area rainfall was meager at best. I received .02". You received 4.30" in March. That is close to what I have received this entire year to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 Just now, stormy said: You speak with a reasonable tone. Thank you for that. As you may notice the date on the short term map is March 21. What some seem to be unaware of or defensive about is that portions of extreme northern Virginia and Maryland received very beneficial rainfall yesterday. Cross Junction in Frederick County reported .50". Others without doubt received significantly more. If you travel south from this area rainfall was meager at best. I received .02". You received 4.30" in March. That is close to what I have received this entire year to date. I don't doubt there are localized areas in our general region that are at a deficit. That map, however, needs an update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I don't doubt there are localized areas in our general region that are at a deficit. That map, however, needs an update. That map only updates about once every two weeks. That is the latest. During the past 7 - 10 days the latitude zone from the bay through D.C. to Winchester has received various amounts of very beneficial rain. Much of central and northern Va. from Richmond, Charlottesville, Lexington, Staunton, Harrisonburg and New Market is very dry. These are several month deficits. Southwest Va. between Roanoke and Bristol is wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 wow we are really going to finish this winter with no snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 30, 2020 Author Share Posted March 30, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ji said: wow we are really going to finish this winter with no snow You are at least a month late with this post. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: You are at least a month late with this post. I gave up on anything more than some crazy fluke so long ago it feels like I should be preparing for next winter by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 9 hours ago, Ji said: wow we are really going to finish this winter with no snow You need to drive down to Highland west. The latest GFS and Nam say 2 - 4 inches for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 12Z WB 3K NAM for our southern friends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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