Weather Will Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 WB ICON and GFS.....good thing is no one is getting a snowstorm anywhere near us now. Let's see what EURO does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 @losetoa6 the bleeding turned into a full scale hemorrhage this run. The old gfs used to simply have a major cold thus south bias with everything so it was easy to adjust. Now it’s more nuanced. There are setups when north isn’t always a likely. But with an amplifying system in a progressive flow and retreating cold a north adjustment is a good bet the final 72 hours. When the system started to trend more amplified 2 days ago I wanted to see us on the northern fringe of snow. When at day 4 we were on the southern fringe I expected this to fail. Even the euro has a cold bias in a progressive pattern at range it’s just not as bad as the gfs. Just explaining the rationale for my pessimism. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It's all good PSU . Probably see some conversation flakes still .It was low chance butt..... Eps has the NAO and AO going negative end of March. That's when the party finally begins . Palm Sunday snowstorm redux The period right around the end of March early April has some chance at a fluke frozen event. The pattern isn’t awful. We have had plenty of minor snows into early April. But history suggests it will likely require getting hit flush and even then will be marginal and likely not significant. Not a good long lead tracking scenario. But not ruling out seeing more flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Happy Phase 2! I mean, warmest day of spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 Return flow will erode pretty quick as the day wears on tomorrow. But, pretty low dews across the area at 12z sun....a little slower in pushing this drier air back north could give a little surprise to some higher elevations in counties along the MD line... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 On 3/20/2020 at 2:23 PM, losetoa6 said: It's all good PSU . Probably see some conversation flakes still .It was low chance butt..... Eps has the NAO and AO going negative end of March. That's when the party finally begins . Palm Sunday snowstorm redux I just wanna know why, man...Been like 9 or 10 years of this mess. Is this simply climo now? Smh I hope not...I hope what seems to be a decadal cycle will break the other way for us soon...I mean this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 WB 18Z EURO...mood flakes Monday am as I start my second week of telework. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 0Z NAM trended colder with some mood flakes Monday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2020 Author Share Posted March 22, 2020 Might not verify, but given it is Spring, good chance it will. Maybe one day we will again see a HL h5 look like this when it actually matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Might not verify, but given it is Spring, good chance it will. Maybe one day we will again see a HL h5 look like this when it actually matters. I'll take that. Anything to delay the start of mowing season right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2020 Author Share Posted March 22, 2020 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I'll take that. Anything to delay the start of mowing season right now. If I can get the mower going, I will mow today for the first time. Mostly to whack the chickweed down so the emerging grass can better choke it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: If I can get the mower going, I will mow today for the first time. Mostly to whack the chickweed down so the emerging grass can better choke it out. That's my plan today. Hopefully get it started . Check the oil, put air in the tires. Take my snowblower out of my garage (never used it this winter) and put it back in my storage room under my garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Mmmm do I need to get up super early tomorrow to see some flakes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Might not verify, but given it is Spring, good chance it will. Maybe one day we will again see a HL h5 look like this when it actually matters. I think the pacific winter base state pattern has been destructive to getting NAO blocking. In general we have seen a persistent pac ridge. (Notice there the pac ridge is finally eradicated and up goes the NAO ridge). That ridge tightens the thermal gradient to its north promoting a faster northern jet that will fight attempts to transport heat poleward thus prevents ridging. At times in the last 7 years that ridge shifted north enough that it created a favorable epo pattern. But other than that the only winter NAO blocking we’ve had in the last 7 years was during the super nino and very late in 2018 following a SSW that coupled with the TPV. So long as a huge pacific ridge is the dominant pattern it doesn’t help. There is a correlation between the warm mjo phases, that pac ridge, and +NAO. Unfortunately there has been some speculation that longer term climate changes might be driving the tendency for that dominant configuration. I’m skeptical it lasts that much longer but we will see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the pacific winter base state pattern has been destructive to getting NAO blocking. In general we have seen a persistent pac ridge. (Notice there the pac ridge is finally eradicated and up goes the NAO ridge). That ridge tightens the thermal gradient to its north promoting a faster northern jet that will fight attempts to transport heat poleward thus prevents ridging. At times in the last 7 years that ridge shifted north enough that it created a favorable epo pattern. But other than that the only winter NAO blocking we’ve had in the last 7 years was during the super nino and very late in 2018 following a SSW that coupled with the TPV. So long as a huge pacific ridge is the dominant pattern it doesn’t help. There is a correlation between the warm mjo phases, that pac ridge, and +NAO. Unfortunately there has been some speculation that longer term climate changes might be driving the tendency for that dominant configuration. I’m skeptical it lasts that much longer but we will see. I hope your skepticism is right. Because otherwise...wouldn't that kinda endanger our overall snowfall chances in the future? (I mean I guess we'd have to rely on other factors...) But as you and others have indicated, perhaps it is too early to tell whether this trend will continue for years to come--particularly given the somewhat decadal pattern we've seen in our records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2020 Author Share Posted March 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I hope your skepticism is right. Because otherwise...wouldn't that kinda endanger our overall snowfall chances in the future? (I mean I guess we'd have to rely on other factors...) But as you and others have indicated, perhaps it is too early to tell whether this trend will continue for years to come--particularly given the somewhat decadal pattern we've seen in our records. Remember this- we want a -AO above all. If the AO is only weakly positive, then a favorably placed EPO ridge can compensate. When we have a ++AO like this winter, we are pretty well fukked no matter what. There may well be a correlation between that and the tropical forcing tendencies, and if what psu is suggesting becomes the base state for winters going forward, get used to NC winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I hope your skepticism is right. Because otherwise...wouldn't that kinda endanger our overall snowfall chances in the future? (I mean I guess we'd have to rely on other factors...) But as you and others have indicated, perhaps it is too early to tell whether this trend will continue for years to come--particularly given the somewhat decadal pattern we've seen in our records. We have no control over it so just relax and see what happens. If this basic pac base state persists in the means another 3-4 years at that point I would begin to accept maybe it’s a permanent (or semi permanent) climate shift. At that point if you want to see snow regularly in winter you know you need to move north. I’m skeptical this is truly a permanent shift. We are due for a shift in the AO base state. If we don’t see that in the next handful of years then I would worry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just looked at the Eps and around day 8/9 timeframe pretty decent neg nao coupled with a strong 50/50 look. If there's any chance of a last winter hurrah ( or only hurrah for some lol)I'd think that would be it . Time for another perfect track rain storm like yesterday and tomorrow. That was the easiest call I ever made. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 24, 2020 Author Share Posted March 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Probably. Actually yesterday ended up much drier then as close as 36 hours before when 1 inch amounts were plenty on guidance. Let's bring this last coastal rain bomb home together . Preferably a 970 mb off OC If yesterday's event had happened a month or so earlier, in another winter, I would have had 10" of snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Infuriating. Man I hope this is a decadal trend and not some permanent change because of a different climate or whatever...year after year, smh Can't give us jack diddly of this one time in winter lately...If it ever comes back when it's supposed to, we had better take it all in!! I swear it's like something pushing a button to troll us, lol I hope this get "fixed" some time in the next winter or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 3 hours ago, losetoa6 said: I would have gotten 2 inches ( fringed) Keep in mind in winter with a colder thermal gradient to create more WAA lift there would have been a more consolidated precip shield. We likely would have done better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Infuriating. Man I hope this is a decadal trend and not some permanent change because of a different climate or whatever...year after year, smh Can't give us jack diddly of this one time in winter lately...If it ever comes back when it's supposed to, we had better take it all in!! I swear it's like something pushing a button to troll us, lol I hope this get "fixed" some time in the next winter or two... Stop torturing yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This winter was atrocious but hurricane season might be hot. Guess we’ll be evacuating during a shelter in place order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Stop torturing yourself. I'm not torturing me, the stupid crap going on in the atmosphere is. That graphic is infuriating, it's like getting robbed and the thief just keeps laughing in your face. The feeling of being unfairly passed up for a little extra happiness...How do you not be upset at that graphic? I don't care if it's happened 6 or 7 years in a row...it's still frustrating even if expected (especially given how the winter went). Next year we've earned better, imo...been through enough with this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Euro day8-9 has a cutoff and rainstorm. Looks similar to April 2007.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm not torturing me, the stupid crap going on in the atmosphere is. That graphic is infuriating, it's like getting robbed and the thief just keeps laughing in your face. The feeling of being unfairly passed up for a little extra happiness...How do you not be upset at that graphic? I don't care if it's happened 6 or 7 years in a row...it's still frustrating even if expected (especially given how the winter went). Next year we've earned better, imo...been through enough with this mess. You don’t have to let it get to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 5 hours ago, losetoa6 said: I'm betting ensembles starting spitting out some strong coastals in that timeframe within the next few days . The euro scenario with a better track could yield some snow. It’s getting too late for a big snow even up here but we’ve had minor snows in April several times since I’ve been up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 We are probably going to need a massive near-equator volcanic eruption to get us some good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 WB 18Z GEFS. Too bad its for early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. Too bad its for early April. I don’t see any real issues with snow and temps in the low 40’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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