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March Medium/Long Range Disco


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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If I had to guess right now based on historical probabilities and recent trends in long term global patterns, next year is likely to suck also but not as bad as this. A 5-10” winter around DC would be my best guess right now. 

There is a lot of time for that to change. Maybe the warmer waters in the IO and western PAC driving the unfavorable mjo shifts.  Maybe enso changes trajectory. Maybe the long term AO state flips. But that’s a lot of maybe. Better to just expect it to suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

If we're talking about historical trends...there does not appear to be one that offers hope for a better season than that: the solar minimum.

I looked through BWI records and compared them with the estimated years that the minimum "bottomed out". There hasn't been a time where one of the two years surrounding the minimum didn't give us a decent (at least average) winter. And from what I can see...all but one time actually had above average snow (and the exception--the minimum of the 40s, still had a winter that logged 18 inches). So it doesn't appear that we've ever gone without the minimum giving us some kind of benefit...so we shall see.

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro says no

Has there really even been a model that says "yes" with this threat? It's all about the timing/dig of the northern stream and that won't be figured out for another 2-3 days. We all know how this will work out but for the time being I'm glad to have something interesting to keep an eye on. It's about as good as it's been all winter. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The late week setup screams painfully close miss to me which would be the perfect way to end this season. 

Yeah this one has the look of a potentially big event for most of NE, including, and maybe especially, SNE for a change. Maybe even NYC. Perfect way to end this debacle.

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah this one has the look of a potentially big event for most of NE, including, and maybe especially, SNE for a change. Maybe even NYC. Perfect way to end this debacle.

Why are you torturing yourself following this shit?

Are you the kind of guy who still watches the confetti fall and the postgame show after your sports team loses the championship game in miserable fashion?

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Why are you torturing yourself following this shit?

Are you the kind of guy who still watches the confetti fall and the postgame show after your sports team loses the championship game in miserable fashion?

LOL.

I realize it's difficult to keep up when you only do the occasional drive-by shit post.

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17 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

Oh it's completely rational, in just funnin'ya

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I got to get back to my  dfh 120 minute beer:D but here's one comparison. 

18z

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3409600.png

NS continues to dig pretty decent after this hour compared to 12z . Hopefully 0z continues 

 

12z

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3409600 (1).png

 

That’s like 18% ABV....impressive 

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