Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS still showing don’t give up hope during the second week of March. To make myself aa clear as I can there is 0% chances of an event through next Thursday. After that, we have a slight chance for about a week. That is all that I think that is advertised. Luck would help. You have to understand that probability maps are a snapshot. There is no cumulative effect. For example, whether I flip a coin once or a thousand times, there is a 50% of getting heads or tails each time. The difference with the snow probability maps is that every six hours you get a little closer to the target period with updated weather data input. So it will be interesting to see if the probs increase over the next week for the second week of March and whether other models also show it. I would only note that I am not remembering a period recently where GEFS has shown some signals, albeit weak for the same time period two days in a row. Let's just take p02 or p19 and be done with it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Do you remember 3-13-93. The Storm Of The Century. The storm that gave Dulles 14 inches and Snowshoe 44 inches.My son was born in the middle of the March 3 2014 snowstorm. I will never give up until late March. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: My son was born in the middle of the March 3 2014 snowstorm. I will never give up until late March. Yeah I was going to say you don't have to go back that far for good March snows. Our biggest event in 2018 was in March. ...the first day of Spring. Even DCA had 4" That being said, I'm very torn right now. As much as I would like to see something I'm tired of these false hopes, and I just want Spring at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Let's just take p02 or p19 and be done with it! If you look at those maps, there is a 100% chance that I will see at least 1/2” of snow during the period. Anybody think a 100% probability is reasonable or descriptive of anything weather related? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 I know the thread is a dumpster fire joke at this point but it can snow even into late March here, and some of the years it did were god awful seasons like this one. Now...does that mean it’s likely? Hell no. It’s a long shot. And we’re not getting some 20” cold smoke HECS. A small slushy accumulation is more likely if anything at all. But some would be happy with that and would want to track it. So if you’re one of the people who has totally checked out (I’m mostly checked out) fine but leave those that want to track every lottery ticket chance to the bitter end alone. It’s no skin off your back. Posts whining about other people tracking low probability snow chances is more annoying than the posts tracking them. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you look at those maps, there is a 100% chance that I will see at least 1/2” of snow during the period. Anybody think a 100% probability is reasonable or descriptive of anything weather related? Only that it'll be hot and uncomfortable for months on end starting a couple months from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nobody posted the Gfs for Wed night . Snow n+w area's In fairness you might be the only one of the 7 people in this sub effected by that still paying any attention. I am at the point where I check in once a day and scan everything but not wasting any more time than that. I don't really have that much time right now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I know the thread is a dumpster fire joke at this point but it can snow even into late March here, and some of the years it did were god awful seasons like this one. March 25, 2013 comes to mind. Now, that wasn't as bad as this winter has been, but it was loaded with disappointment (especially when we got screwed earlier that month). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you look at those maps, there is a 100% chance that I will see at least 1/2” of snow during the period. Anybody think a 100% probability is reasonable or descriptive of anything weather related? Strictly speaking the maps give the percent of ensemble members showing at least a certain amount of snow/sleet. They are a tool not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Strictly speaking the maps give the percent of ensemble members showing at least a certain amount of snow/sleet. They are a tool not a forecast. Yes, I know this. But if you look at those maps, every single one of them “predict” (because that’s what an ensemble member is, a prediction of weather) that I will see at least 1/2” of snow (my location). That’s a 100 percent chance, or a probability of 1. Therefore, if there was a probability map that showed probability for snowfall of at least 1/2” I would be in a shaded portion of 100% chance. That would be completely ridiculous. And then that applies to any snowfall probability map, regardless of the accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 WB 12Z GEFS. Most of this prob. is for the week of March 8 but there is also a weak signal for far NW areas for TH. March 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 I just went to take out the trash and saw some fatties! Though they were about 5 feet apart. Just realized this should be in the obs forum. Mods, can you help a brother? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: March 25, 2013 comes to mind. Now, that wasn't as bad as this winter has been, but it was loaded with disappointment (especially when we got screwed earlier that month). Will we ever forget the infamous Cantore out in the rain photo? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: #jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 March 8 might as well be June in DC proper. Sun angle will scorch earth by then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 WB 12Z EURO for Friday next week. Surface does not quite get it done....maybe experts could chime in on what they think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO for Friday next week. Surface does not quite get it done....maybe experts could chime in on what they think. Really confused on how that escapes out to sea given the 500mb look at 144. I was expecting a 980mb low over the Del Marva. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I was surprised too ..Yea...its really close verbatim to a nice hit . Maybe 6 or 12 hours in timing The airmass isn't cold to start, but we could probably get enough cold on the back end of it bombs. And yes it purely escapes due to the timing of the southern stream. The northern stream isn't configured to shred it. Pivotal weather is showing a right entrance region over us at 300mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Wrt the op euro the SS and NS missed the phase and a major storm by 6 hours. It was as close as you can get without a major amped solution. And it would have amplified perfectly for us location wise. It was a run that suggests there is a chance. There have been enough runs with a similar look that it’s at least still a threat, if a long shot one. That’s all it’s worth. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps definitely a move in the right direction at h5. 850s look ok? I know you said surface is less than perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 See ya guys on March 11Per 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Pretty nice front end event on the Gfs day 11 . Ninjad by Jiiiiii Yea each model keeps spitting out a snow solution here or there but it continues to be a random storm with no consistency. Until we see guidance converge on the same discreet event it all remains highly unlikely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Flurries today; front end dump on 3/10-11. We're back baby!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Flurries today; front end dump on 3/10-11. We're back baby!! You’re not really thinking...never mind I’m sure it will be a nice event. Those positive thinking classes are really doing the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 5 hours ago, losetoa6 said: I was surprised too ..Yea...its really close verbatim to a nice hit . Maybe 6 or 12 hours in timing Just noticed the Ukmet. It does phase, but looks like an apps runner at 144. The NS digs a lot further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: Flurries today; front end dump on 3/10-11. We're back baby!! No.......not falling for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, Icefishingrocks said: No.......not falling for it Maybe with a locked in 1045 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 It looks like on April 10th 1894 we got a warning level event here. So there is still plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 1 hour ago, PDIII said: It looks like on April 10th 1894 we got a warning level event here. So there is still plenty of time. Start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 1 hour ago, PDIII said: It looks like on April 10th 1894 we got a warning level event here. So there is still plenty of time. It was actually a Travelers Advisory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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