Wednesday, February 26, 2020 (overnight into Thursday) Low Topped Convection Potential

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

well now I am in the same boat as everyone else with calling for the fake winter threats that never transpired. 

Except we know 24 hrs out that it's a fail. First tstm fail down, many more to come. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So obvious of a fail. Good luck this season though Wizzy. I hope you get a memorable rumble at some point. 

[weatherwiz]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Except we know 24 hrs out that it's a fail. First tstm fail down, many more to come. 

you are such a weenie deflater 

[Torch Tiger]

darn, failed a February threat

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

darn, failed a February threat

When we really get into summer and start forecasting convection 5-6 days out at least we know that will happen and pan out. 

[Torch Tiger]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When we really get into summer and start forecasting convection 5-6 days out at least we know that will happen and pan out. 

yeah most of the time, anyway. Heh. I'm just happy we are making baby steps to comfortable, outdoorsy weather. Convective fun is still a ways off..besides your chase

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

A bit of a gusty downpour at the moment

[Cyclone-68]

I’m willing to dabble  in the dark arts for a decent severe season 

[weatherwiz]

There was actually some small hail in PA last night 

[CoastalWx]

Fail

[dryslot]

12 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

darn, failed a February threat

I give it.......

[The 4 Seasons]

This is the most depressing winter thread ever.

[WinterWolf]

56 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is the most depressing winter thread ever.

What total joke this thread was...I mean really???  This is the first I’ve been here...glad I only wasted 30 seconds on this.  Wiz looking for a rumble of thunder in February, lol. 

[weatherwiz]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What total joke this thread was...I mean really???  This is the first I’ve been here...glad I only wasted 30 seconds on this.  Wiz looking for a rumble of thunder in February, lol. 

Certainly was a joke...just like the hundreds of posts throughout the winter stating "winter is coming", "changes are coming", "there's our pattern change at day 10". Same too about posts about a big cold shot first week of March. . 

[mreaves]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly was a joke...just like the hundreds of posts throughout the winter stating "winter is coming", "changes are coming", "there's our pattern change at day 10". Same too about posts about a big cold shot first week of March. . 

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly was a joke...just like the hundreds of posts throughout the winter stating "winter is coming", "changes are coming", "there's our pattern change at day 10". Same too about posts about a big cold shot first week of March. . 

Only posts like that made a month out naturally won’t always verify. Apples to oranges when a thread fails two days out.

[dendrite]

This thread has coronavirus.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Only posts like that made a month out naturally won’t always verify. Apples to oranges when a thread fails two days out.

ehhh it's all in good fun and jabbing. 

I kinda jumped the gun on this...overlooked (or well didn't look) a few things which if I had I probably wouldn't have made this thread. I focused too much on dynamics/lapse rates and didn't even bother to look at theta-e/llvl moisture. 

but it's also the tone of things...I like sticking my head out and trying to make actual forecasts/calls and get away from the notion of "if this happens then this will result". I notice that quite a bit on twitter and I think those posts put the wrong ideas in peoples head. It's not the person's fault who is putting forth the information though...it's how the information is being perceived.  

Even the past month with all these "signals" on the EPS about changes...were those changes really of any merit? When you take into account the structure hemispheric pattern that has been place I don't think any of them ever did. The biggest thing (in my mind was) a lack of a mechanism to disrupt this pattern/circulation to make such changes go through.

[The 4 Seasons]

[The 4 Seasons]

#freeleo

[weatherwiz]

If anything this was good practice for the season. Gotta shake off the forecasting rust. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

If anything this was good practice for the season. Gotta shake off the forecasting rust. 

You should of had all the ‘nothing happening’ forecasting practice over the fall and winter. 

[Torch Tiger]

wow, the trolling and sardonic bitterness is real from some. Chin up, positive vibes, friends.