Wednesday, February 26, 2020 (overnight into Thursday) Low Topped Convection Potential

[weatherwiz]

A vigorous piece of shortwave energy approaches late Wednesday associated with a strengthening MLJ in excess of 100 knots along with a strengthening LLJ. A plume of rather steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the sfc low combined with a plume of WAA/theta-e will help yield sufficient elevated instability to yield the development of a low topped squall line southwest of southern New England. conditions favor this line to move through New England during the overnight hours yielding the potential for small hail and damaging winds. 

[weatherwiz]

I am expecting marginal risk to be placed into SNE with a slight risk where the marginal is now.

[The 4 Seasons]

[weatherwiz]

I wish dewpoints were just a bit higher...even lower 50's could do some wonders 

[dendrite]

I'd rather view Kuchera maps.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I'd rather view Kuchera maps.

If you post them here and then pin the thread you'll be able to view them more easily 

 

you need to add the upside down smiley to the list of emojis. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yawn. Time to hijack t storm threads with... ‘Only 8 months to go until we start tracking winter again!’ type posts ala inverse Wiz. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yawn. Time to hijack t storm threads with... ‘Only 8 months to go until we start tracking winter again!’ type posts ala inverse Wiz. 

I can't wait till winter 20-21. Time to take a long weather hybernation from Apr-Nov. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I can't wait till winter 20-21. Time to take a long weather hybernation from Apr-Nov. 

So exciting. We can already see climate models go out that far. Pretty soon we’ll start seeing cold invading Canada on the gfs and Ray coming out of hibernation with his initial thoughts. Pumped!

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'd rather view Kuchera maps.

 

[Torch Tiger]

49 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I can't wait till winter 20-21. Time to take a long weather hybernation from Apr-Nov. 

maybe you will see more than 5" of snow this time...though, a Nina...hmm

[yoda]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I am expecting marginal risk to be placed into SNE with a slight risk where the marginal is now.

1730z OTLK say nein

[The 4 Seasons]

31 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

maybe you will see more than 5" of snow this time...though, a Nina...hmm

Well seeing as how i got double that this season....

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Well seeing as how i got double that this season....

 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

 

No severe wx this summer, no dews, no days above 90, no tropical storms, weeks of drizzle and clouds. And i'm gonna laugh and laugh and laugh at your trolling arse!

[weatherwiz]

33 minutes ago, yoda said:

1730z OTLK say nein

Looks like marginal expanded slightly. I think dews only in the 40's might be the main cause. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the marginal expanded...perhaps not into SNE but into PA and parts of NJ

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

No severe wx this summer, no dews, no days above 90, no tropical storms, weeks of drizzle and clouds. And i'm gonna laugh and laugh and laugh at your trolling arse!

a bad summer pattern, is still summer. want

[The 4 Seasons]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

a bad summer pattern, is still summer. want

a bad winter pattern, is still winter. def want.

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

a bad winter pattern, is still winter. def want.

yeah these 50's and 60's have been great. Wiz even gets to track a low-top line. We've had better thunder events than snow events this winter. If this is winter, sign me up every single time

[weatherwiz]

Going to be pretty sick 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Going to be pretty sick 

maybe if it was over the @40/70 Benchmark 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Dude is gonna be let down all season over and over again. How many times does he park himself at a random rest stop and busts out his tripod camera not noticing a honking car of naked chested girls because he is too occupied with an approaching line of dark clouds that ends up squeezing out one rogue clap of thunder (when it could have been female cheeks clapping on his weenie instead)...which ultimately spirals his emotions and pony pail into deep a depressive angered state. Never fails. 

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to be pretty sick

Hungover?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Hungover?

No  

[weatherwiz]

It's creeping

[Treckasec]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

It's creeping

The ceiling of this convective event isn't very high... Even in the marginal area, instability/SFC instability looks rather limited, which should cap the potential for strong storms. For NE, the low seems to track too far south for any appreciable surge of warm air to allow for more instability... I don't see any models showing any organized convection moving through the NE region (HRRR, 3KM NAM, WRFs on TropicalTidbits)... Only stratiform rain, it seems. I would keep expectations very low...

[Torch Tiger]

Incoming bangers...it's winter and it's great

[CoastalWx]

Fail as usual 

[HoarfrostHubb]

This was a waste of electrons

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Fail as usual 

 

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This was a waste of electrons

well now I am in the same boat as everyone else with calling for the fake winter threats that never transpired.