cyclone77 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Yea, tomorrow definitely has potential from E IA and across N IL. SPC holding at marginal is comical, but par for the course with them. Unfortunately I’ll still be out of town for this one. Yeah I was surprised about the new day 2. I thought Jewell was one of the better forecasters, but who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah I was surprised about the new day 2. I thought Jewell was one of the better forecasters, but who knows. As someone who works in the media, I actually appreciate a conservative approach, especially when storm threats around here are so conditional. Forecasters who don't jump the gun too early, but communicate uncertainty and discuss all possibilities are the usually the better meteorologists overall. Hype/worst case scenarios for EVERY thunderstorm threat is unnecessary and exhausting. It's a lot better to ramp up as the situation becomes clearer than to go in guns a blazin', only to walk it back with a bruised reputation. I also concede being too conservative can also be bad. It's a fine line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 22, 2020 Author Share Posted May 22, 2020 37 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: As someone who works in the media, I actually appreciate a conservative approach, especially when storm threats around here are so conditional. Forecasters who don't jump the gun too early, but communicate uncertainty and discuss all possibilities are the usually the better meteorologists overall. Hype/worst case scenarios for EVERY thunderstorm threat is unnecessary and exhausting. It's a lot better to ramp up as the situation becomes clearer than to go in guns a blazin', only to walk it back with a bruised reputation. I also concede being too conservative can also be bad. It's a fine line I mean, I agree with not hyping up everything, but I think a slight risk would've been justified on a day 2 update in this case. We aren't taking about mod/high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I mean, I agree with not hyping up everything, but I think a slight risk would've been justified on a day 2 update in this case. We aren't taking about mod/high. Agree a slight risk upgrade would've been reasonable given an enhanced risk ceiling across a small corridor. I like the overlay of shear and instability across northern and possibly central IL. Chicago is likely in play too given early AM fog will clear quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 23, 2020 Author Share Posted May 23, 2020 00z runs look pretty decent. I guess if I had to nitpick, it would be the low-mid level flow. It's good enough for an organized severe threat (incl tornadoes) but perhaps on the lower side of adequate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 SLGT risk for extreme Eastern IA into N IL including Chicago on new day 1... 15% hail and 5% tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Quote DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT, WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL, WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. ..NORTHERN IL UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN IA IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO EASTERN IA BY 18Z, THEN WEAKEN SOME AS IT EJECTS INTO SOUTHERN WI BY EARLY EVENING. 50KT 500MB SPEED MAX SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS IL INTO A REGION OF FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN IA BENEATH THE UPPER LOW, WHILE DOWNSTREAM, PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IL WILL EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE DESTABILIZATION AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. AS A RESULT, MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 1500 J/KG WITHIN A SHEARED REGIME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE IA/NORTHWESTERN IL BORDER THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE CHICAGO METRO BY EARLY EVENING. HAIL, WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 23, 2020 Author Share Posted May 23, 2020 imo, this is the best tornado threat in the LOT cwa since Memorial Day 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Might have to take a drive for the first time if something promising occurs in the near vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: imo, this is the best tornado threat in the LOT cwa since Memorial Day 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Tornado watch up across central IA. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 120 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA, POSING A LOCALIZED RISK OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MASON CITY IA TO 25 MILES EAST OF LAMONI IA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 The discussion and probability breakdown seems like something you'd expect to see with a tornado watch issued for a landfalling TC, not in the Midwest in late May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 There are possible tornadoes near Wells, MN and Rowan, IA right now. The storm cells is so small, the moderate/heavy rain may be falling in a 2mi x 4mi corridor in both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 28, 2020 Share Posted May 28, 2020 Not even a marginal risk in this area and the pulse-type storms are already spawning a mini-severe outbreak in central IL. TOG southwest of Taylorville, IL. Decatur in crosshairs if it continues on its path: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 615 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Christian County in central Illinois... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 614 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Harvel, or 5 miles southwest of Morrisonville, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Morrisonville around 625 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Palmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted May 28, 2020 Share Posted May 28, 2020 Coworker got a small video of the tornado in south central IL today. Hoping this screenshot of it uploads. Looks like a small stovepipe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 720 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Moultrie County in central Illinois... * Until 745 PM CDT. * At 717 PM CDT, a confirmed landspout tornado was located south of Dalton City, or about 3 miles northwest of Bethany, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Very weak or landspout tornadoes. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed landspout tornado. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. * The tornado will be near... Bethany around 720 PM CDT. Sullivan and Lovington around 735 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Tuesday has my interest. I'm interested to see what the Day 3 outlook looks like tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 20, 2020 Share Posted June 20, 2020 looks like a decent chance of storms around here by midday or early afternoon. nice 700mb wave coming in with ample sun ahead of it. drier dews could allow for some pulse type, outflow-dominant activity. the lucky ones will probably see 2-3 rounds today according to most of the latest hi-res. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 20, 2020 Share Posted June 20, 2020 Wisconsin, the land of cheese and random tornado warnings on marginal risk days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 20, 2020 Share Posted June 20, 2020 41 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Wisconsin, the land of cheese and random tornado warnings on marginal risk days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 LOL, we were removed from yesterday's Day 3 Marginal risk (for Monday) on the first Day 2, then added back to it on the update. Guess we'll have to keep an eye out for more shenanigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: LOL, we were removed from yesterday's Day 3 Marginal risk (for Monday) on the first Day 2, then added back to it on the update. Guess we'll have to keep an eye out for more shenanigans. Classic Broyles. He seriously has no business having a job at SPC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 today looks like it will do just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Slight Risk added for IL at 1630Z update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Slight risk added to a good chunk of the northern half of IL. Quote ..ILLINOIS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF IA/MO TO WESTERN INDIANA HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A WIND-RELATED CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. DECAYING OUTFLOW AND PREVALENT CLOUD COVER COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO SOMEWHAT, BUT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2020 Author Share Posted June 22, 2020 Lots of sun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Today looks like a similar threat as was seen on Saturday. Isolated severe, but nothing widespread...and with more widespread rain and general t'storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 some quality garden variety going up over the city now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2020 Author Share Posted June 22, 2020 Warned cell west of here... we'll see if it makes it over eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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