CheeselandSkies Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Sun popping out here most of the morning in SC WI. Last three HRRR runs with a stormier look for us this evening, although the 12Z runs lost that juicy sup tracking along the Dane/Green-Rock County line ~22-23Z that the 10-11Z runs had. @madwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I'm setting up in east Iowa, probably use US 11 to get back across the Mississippi. Hopefully any sups track north of my house (Janesville). Today is conditional but I'm thinking it over preforms, especially if SPC leaves it at slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Warming up quickly here in IKK under full sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Sun popping out here most of the morning in SC WI. Last three HRRR runs with a stormier look for us this evening, although the 12Z runs lost that juicy sup tracking along the Dane/Green-Rock County line ~22-23Z that the 10-11Z runs had. @madwx i'll be out if anything tracks into S WI, gotta get my storm chances in considering I most likely won't be able to go to the plains to chase this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Interesting to see full sun and warming up so quickly. Used to the lousy starts with cloud cover and no time to recover. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Today is going just about as expected, with widespread clouds and convection festering across the main area of focus. Best chance of anything will probably be from that current E IA line, if it matures a bit to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Yeah, early sun went away and HRRR has backed off on convective intensity across most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 too much festering precip. oh well, our peak severe season doesn't really start for another month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 37 minutes ago, madwx said: too much festering precip. oh well, our peak severe season doesn't really start for another month I just hope we all live to see it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Warch coming for my area Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020 Areas affected...eastern Missouri...southeast Iowa...into western Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 282033Z - 282200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms with the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail with a tornado or two will be likely this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent from an approaching shortwave trough over the central High Plains is impinging on the warm sector of a surface cyclone over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Boundary layer moisture has increased through the day across Missouri and southern Illinois with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s into the low 60s F. As a result of the moistening, 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed across the area. The instability is concurrent with effective bulk-shear of 30 to 40 kt. Severe storms including a mix of line segments and a few supercells are likely to develop over the next 1 to 2 hours along the surface trough/cold-front trailing the surface low. Initially, these storms will pose a risk for a tornado or two but will transition to a damaging winds and hail threat. ..Lyons/Cook/Thompson.. 04/28/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 County level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Today was quite lame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Quality garden variety here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Going to be the same old song and dance IMBY, doesn't matter if it rains all morning or plentiful sunshine. Sangamon county is a storm killer. Always regains strength after passing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 Parameters are just kind of meh today, especially in the IA/IL portion of the risk area. Good enough for some severe wx... not terrible but not that great. Could've used more instability or shear or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 At least I was able to get a solid thundershower around midday... heard a few rumbles and picked up 0.26" of rain. I knew that would probably be it for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I might get a garden variety t storm around midnight or so down here in central IN. 72/51 here now this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Had a bit of a gust out here. Not showing up on radar yet but had a weak wanna be shelf/roll cloud with some wind come through then the rain started well ahead of radar reflections. Lightning well off to the west but no way it strengthens now. Lots of lightning but not much thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 This is from a friend in the Chatham/Loami area to my SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Well to my west near Franklin(Jacksonville area) from a coworker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Nice shelf cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said: Going to be the same old song and dance IMBY, doesn't matter if it rains all morning or plentiful sunshine. Sangamon county is a storm killer. Always regains strength after passing. To the bolded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said: Going to be the same old song and dance IMBY, doesn't matter if it rains all morning or plentiful sunshine. Sangamon county is a storm killer. Always regains strength after passing. But I remember following those long track supercells that hit on March 12, 2006 that produced two tornadoes in Springfield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Indystorm said: But I remember following those long track supercells that hit on March 12, 2006 I remember it well, it's how I found Acccuwx in 2010, found a few forums with threads following the days events. I'm not saying it can't happen, just how it usually pans out. I'll pass on another 3/12/06 though. Was about 200 yds off the northern edge of the path of the first(main) tornado. Was outside trying to get some lightening pics listening to Gus Gordon(local met at the time) talk about a confirmed tornado less than 1/4 mile from me headed towards me Finally let out an audible shriek as winds got into the probable 90mph range, back sliding glass door was a straight shot from front door. Seen the power flash as the weatherhead was ripped down. Was under a blizzard warning before power was restored Definitely got lucky on that one and one of the reasons I tend to hope for but not get overly disappointed when strong storms are forecast. Never know when "that one" is going to actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 I've only seen a confirmed EF 0 tornado that touched down in Dyer IN on May 27, 2019. A nearby theater was evacuated from that one and I saw the tornado to my west. Your story sounds too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Took the boy out for a lil chase to the Washburn, Illinois area. Severe warned cell dropped some quarter size hail. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Gotten bored to the point where I am reading through past convective outlooks when we actually got widespread severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Central IL and IN are under marginal risk this Sat. evening with storms starting to fire in west central IL west of Springfield and Lincoln. Let's see what develops. Right now they are elevated on the north side of the front....Springfield 76/49 Salem 78/64 SPC not currently expecting to issue a watch due to sparse nature of convection, but damaging wind gusts and some hail may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Severe cell in SE Illinois near Shelbyville - radar data showed that 60dBz went up to 30,000 ft. Hail was estimated to be 3", but no hail of that size was reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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