hlcater Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 Quite a signal coming in from the UKie. Has had something similar for 3 or 4 runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 15 hours ago, Stebo said: 7-7.5 c/km are not poor lapse rates, only the GFS is closer to 6.5 which is workable but also poorly underdone by a shitty model. At that point I had only looked at the GFS, given it was only GFS/Euro out far enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 55 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: At that point I had only looked at the GFS, given it was only GFS/Euro out far enough. Come on man, GFS is always going to have shit lapse rates this far out due to model bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 18z NAM starting to look interesting wrt parameters for west central and ne IL this coming Sat. afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 This is much farther north from where SPC currently has a svr outlook. Don't know if it's the NAM just being the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 This same 18z NAM run also ramps up tornado parameters along the warm front in eastern Ohio at the same time as well, as per this forecast sounding. The NAM does not initiate precipitation in this area though, so it seems the threat there would be much more conditional if this run verifies. Forecast parameters are lower in the area between E OH and IL. Lapse rates on the 18z NAM run are also pretty high, with Plains-like 7.5-8.5 values from Illinois over into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 With a 986mb low over Iowa, and 60-65F dew points from Louisiana up to Springfield IL/Davenport IA, I believe the SPC will have to give a slight risk outlook for the entire cold front and adjacent areas. Especially with 75 kt winds at 500mb over this region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Indystorm said: This is much farther north from where SPC currently has a svr outlook. Don't know if it's the NAM just being the NAM. Think Broyles half-assed it per usual. Based on model data last eve the threat should have been much further north in coverage. Later model data could change that, but based off the data he should have been looking at the threat area was poorly outlined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 The NAM is actually the worst model in the suite right now. I think the globals(particularly the UK) are painting a better setup. The primary difference between them and the NAM is the fact that the NAM is significantly faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 Scary NAM forecast for the Calumet region for Sat. afternoon & eve using ye olde clown maps. If NAM is slower it could be even more intense due to WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2020 Author Share Posted March 26, 2020 Becoming interested in this setup. I am always wary of the lake playing games with frontal position at this time of year but I think it will be ok here. I'd say more uncertain with northward extent in northern IL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 6 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Think Broyles half-assed it per usual. He sounds uncharacteristically bearish on the Day 3 outlook. Doesn't even use the "T" word. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: He sounds uncharacteristically bearish on the Day 3 outlook. Doesn't even use the "T" word. Yea he is being very conservative which is unlike him. Tornadoes were definitely worth mentioning. Slight risk areas should be bigger to especially up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 Looking at morning NAM and GFS parameters today I would have to agree with Hoosier's post above that things all depend upon the strength of the lake influence wrt how far north that warm front is gonna go on Sat afternoon and evening. There's gonna be a heck of a gradient and potential for svr storms between west central and ne Illinois though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 New day 2 sees big expansion east of the marginal risk through most of the OV for hail. Quote DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2020 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ..SUMMARY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS -- ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY HAIL -- ARE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY. ..SYNOPSIS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE STEADILY EASTWARD FRIDAY, GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO AREA DURING THE DAY, AND THEN SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS, A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AREA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD, WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW ADVANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..EASTERN KANSAS VICINITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM, BUT THE WARM SECTOR OF THE EVOLVING SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED. WHILE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK IS STILL EVIDENT OVER OKLAHOMA, POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO THE CAPPING. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE-BASED STORM OR TWO IS APPARENT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS, AS THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES TOWARD THIS AREA. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION -- FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS/MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AIDING IN SUSTENANCE OF MODERATE MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE. GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY, WITH POTENTIAL SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY RISK WITH THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE HAIL, WITH LOW/CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MOST APPARENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA INTO KANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 03/26/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 Continue to closely monitor Saturday for a potential local-ish chase. There several things to like, but also several things to hate about the set-up at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 yup^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 Storms moving at the speed of light would be number one regarding chasing. I do think there’s a pretty strong possibility this stays mostly discrete until the evening though. Would maybe like to see a bit more turning in the lowest 3 km and a bit more instability, but I’m inclined to think that the arcing Pacific front/pseudo-dryline, in addition to the triple point in IA early on, should be a breeding ground for supercells. Tornado potential dependent on how the low level wind fields evolve (and how fast the deep layer cyclone occludes). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 Stay home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 Very rare update to the current day 3. Quote DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2020 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF IL/IN...AS WELL AS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. ..MS/OH VALLEY AREA A DEEPENING SYNOPTIC CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHEAST KS SATURDAY MORNING TO WI BY SATURDAY NIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING/POSITIVE-TILT MIDLEVEL TROUGH. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PRIOR DAYS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE WARM SECTOR, AND ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO IL AND THE OH VALLEY, BENEATH THE REMAINING STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OH VALLEY IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME, AND ALSO ACROSS IA/WI IN THE ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT PRECEDING THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS. DURING THE DAY, SURFACE DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY NEAR THE MS RIVER. POTENTIALLY MODERATE BOUYANCY (MLCAPE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG) AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS, WITH BROKEN BANDS OF CELLS EXPECTED GIVEN FAST STORM MOTIONS THAT WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE MOTION OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODGRAPH CURVATURE WILL BE LARGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WARM SECTOR, WHERE A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE, IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. THE FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE OH VALLEY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR INCREASES IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND SOME EXPANSION OF THE NORTHERN SLIGHT RISK AREA IN LATER UPDATES. AREAS OF TN/KY WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN SLIGHT RISK AREA REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THIS UPDATE, THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR SOUTH. ..THOMPSON.. 03/26/2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2020 Author Share Posted March 26, 2020 I don't remember ever seeing an afternoon update on a day 3 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 I don't blame Thompson. That was a terrible outlook by Broyles. This is how it should have looked last night. Mentioned potential upgrade to in further outlooks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 The Day 4-8 left something to be desired, as well RE: next Tuesday in Dixie; usually even with model disagreement the man is gung ho as can be if there's any potential at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I don't remember ever seeing an afternoon update on a day 3 outlook. I think I've seen it once before; can't recall when though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I don't remember ever seeing an afternoon update on a day 3 outlook. I can remember about 3 and every single one of them ended up being significant events. This one is no different in my opinion either. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2020 Author Share Posted March 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: I can remember about 3 and every single one of them ended up being significant events. This one is no different in my opinion either. Y'all have better memories than me. Were they Plains or Dixie setups? I couldn't remember one that was focused more in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: Very rare update to the current day 3. Beat me to it, just got home and seen that. I know better than to get my hopes up, but 3 straight days in a Mrgl or Slight. Still haven't heard thunder this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 I went ahead and started a new thread for the late-week threats here in the sub, especially what may be the main event Saturday: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Interesting article on how warmer Gulf temps could impact tornado and hurricane season this year. https://www.inquirer.com/wires/wp/weather-hurricanes-tornados-20200331.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 10 hours ago, Indystorm said: Interesting article on how warmer Gulf temps could impact tornado and hurricane season this year. https://www.inquirer.com/wires/wp/weather-hurricanes-tornados-20200331.html I think tornado season will roar this year, hurricane season is a different story. At the end of the day it's all about how troughy Summer is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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