Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Everything the rest of the year is going to suck in the context of the 8/10 derecho. Those of us that got nada will disagree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 44 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Those of us that got nada will disagree. . I meant in the macro sense, not specific people's backyards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Definitely a chance of tornadoes tomorrow in Wisconsin along the warm front 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 30 minutes ago, madwx said: Definitely a chance of tornadoes tomorrow in Wisconsin along the warm front Just came on to say that SPC upped us to 5%. Worth noting we just passed the 15th anniversary of 8/18/05, which was a fairly subtle warm front setup. Will see if the hurricane remnants to the south throw a wrench in things (big Gulf Coast hurricane was about 10 days away in 2005), but the juice should already be in place up here. Will definitely be keeping a close eye on things tomorrow afternoon. 12Z 3K NAM has a bow echo about to hit us at 00Z Saturday, HRRR has nothing. Gotta love the long-range CAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 Northern extent of the solid cloud shield with Laura is already into central IL/IN, but it appears to have slowed/stalled northward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Perhaps someone more thoroughly versed in atmospheric physics can chime in: Why is Laura not getting yanked up by/merging with the midlatitude s/w trough that presumably is responsible for today and tomorrow's severe threat, the way Cristobal was in June? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 Timing is off for us. I am drawing a blank on the upper air setup for Cristobal but all I know is it didn't look like this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 23 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Perhaps someone more thoroughly versed in atmospheric physics can chime in: Why is Laura not getting yanked up by/merging with the midlatitude s/w trough that presumably is responsible for today and tomorrow's severe threat, the way Cristobal was in June? Fairly large difference... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 LOT is kind of bullish about tomorrow. Convective trends could get messy though so not sure how the details will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Warnings going out locally this afternoon. Wasn't really expecting the action until overnight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Ready for a solid hit tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 I like tomorrow for some gusty storms along the cold front. Strong mid level winds, seasonably steep lapse rates and well mixed/inverted V profiles below 700mb yield quite a bit of DCAPE and 15-20 degree spreads. Seems like a solid setup if you're looking for some strong downdrafts. Shear vectors relative to the cold front are quite good as well, and may allow for a few supercells with perhaps some hail despite meager SRH and fairly linear hodographs. Tornado threat may exist in Wisconsin where low level shear isn't god awful, but MCS overnight might take care of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Of course ARX radar is down as I want to see what this line coming in is doing. Apparently it was a planned outage of which today is the last day, so naturally there would be severe weather in the area. https://www.weather.gov/arx/SLEP_pedestal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 I think we are hosed for later today, the way this line is moving in southern MN with some training/back-building in far northern IA it's not going to clear up here by noon unless it breaks up and dissipates. *Ironically there are actually some breaks in the clouds now (which I wasn't expecting, as I was expecting the overnight line to be here right now or within the next hour) so maybe it can intensify some and be the main show. Still probably nothing worth chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Tomorrow is definitely not enhanced risk worthy as it looks. .Still doesn’t look good. SPC looking to add to their list of failure.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Yep, looks like 2020 will join 2018 as a one-and-done chase year for me (August 10th was the only time I got out, to get in the northern fringes of the derecho). In 2018 I didn't get out till a day in October, when a bunch of tornado-warned minisupercells randomly blew up (none actually produced in WI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 (Cartman voice) Weak. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1609.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2020 Author Share Posted August 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Still doesn’t look good. SPC looking to add to their list of failure. . I agree about there being drawbacks, but it would be helpful to the board if you could give a brief description of why instead of these one liners. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 One drawback is the OFB currently marching south along I80 in Iowa. That's a real excellent feature there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Down to slight, 5% moved to our NE. I'll keep on saving the gas money for next spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I agree about there being drawbacks, but it would be helpful to the board if you could give a brief description of why instead of these one liners. rollin' alek style is much easier though. since you have a gun to my back though... Whichever of the two potential scenarios for today ended up occurring, ENH wasn't gonna pan out around here. Scenario 1 was the overnight/morning MCS cleared out much earlier, allowing for development along the front, with a favored narrow corridor for decent severe in SE MN/SW WI/E IA/NW IL. Scenario 2 is what we are in now, where the morning MCS sustained long enough, with widespread debris and an altered environment across a large area ahead of the front. Either way ENH into the LOT CWA was comical and way too bullish, with it all along looking like a marginal worthy threat around here...and for much of the region as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 A broken line of cells has popped to my north and west. There is a warning out in central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: rollin' alek style is much easier though. since you have a gun to my back though... Whichever of the two potential scenarios for today ended up occurring, ENH wasn't gonna pan out around here. Scenario 1 was the overnight/morning MCS cleared out much earlier, allowing for development along the front, with a favored narrow corridor for decent severe in SE MN/SW WI/E IA/NW IL. Scenario 2 is what we are in now, where the morning MCS sustained long enough, with widespread debris and an altered environment across a large area ahead of the front. Either way ENH into the LOT CWA was comical and way too bullish, with it all along looking like a marginal worthy threat around here...and for much of the region as well. And they dropped the ENH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: A broken line of cells has popped to my north and west. There is a warning out in central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 A big ol' goose egg here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2020 Author Share Posted August 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: A big ol' goose egg here. I think you're screwed for like 10 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I think you're screwed for like 10 years now. I'd rather have a more general rain or garden variety light storm, anyway. This afternoon's cells would probably have produced more wind/hail than the small amount of rain was worth. I don't have my fence to shelter the plants anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Man, we just can't buy a decent storm around here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! In all seriousness was hoping we could get a decent rain out of this event. There is a cell heading this way, but the overall trend is naso good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Man, we just can't buy a decent storm around here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! In all seriousness was hoping we could get a decent rain out of this event. There is a cell heading this way, but the overall trend is naso good. Yep, the cells are now petering out, so very few locations will get anything from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 0.00 in Iowa City expansion of D1 is probable given the next week+ is cool and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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