Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 lock it inEasy toss...Unless 2020 works some magic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 yeah overnight MCS merger took place in a traditionally bad spot for a us and has spewed a ton of a debris on the plus side, IR shows tops warming rapidly already and MCV track for later still looks workable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: lock it in Stranger things have happened. The MCV that developed over Lake Erie a few days ago also had a surface circulation and winds near these levels. The MCV already has a surface low co-located with it, and there are 30-35KT gusts N and E of it down in KS this morning. If it is able to maintain some convection near its center, then something along those lines is possible this evening. Similar to the Brown Ocean Effect sometimes allowing tropical systems to intensify over land when you have sufficient heat and moisture flux from the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: yeah overnight MCS merger took place in a traditionally bad spot for a us and has spewed a ton of a debris on the plus side, IR shows tops warming rapidly already and MCV track for later still looks workable for now I'm more enthused about the potential for excessive rain in the metro. nice signal for a prolonged low level jet focus in the area this evening...including the 12Z NAM (below) and 09/12Z RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 excessive rain is what we do best so you're probably on the right track, just like that NAM comes in 2-3 across metro the GOES16 IR loop of the IA diving SE and merging is pretty slick, especially as the remnant is not being lifted back north into the main MCV https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-midwest-15-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0491 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1142 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Areas affected......Central Missouri to central Illinois... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 151545Z - 152145Z Summary...Flash flooding is possible as showers and thunderstorms expand across central Illinois into north central Missouri. Rainfall totals between now and 22z are expected to be 1-3 inches with isolated maxima to 5 inches. Discussion...Widespread showers and thunderstorms moving northeast from northern Missouri are expected to continue moving across central Illinois through early afternoon. The northern half of the threat area over central to northern IL is where a low level warm front centered near 850 mb drifts north, with focused warm and moisture advection combining with frontal convergence and 850-700 mb moisture fluxes to produce ascent. Since the axis of instability is forecast to remain over northern to central Missouri, redevelopment of cells is expected as temperatures rise in the warm sector and instability increases with time. The 14z RAP indicates potential for mixed layer CAPE values to increase to 2000-3000 j/kg early this afternoon over east central Missouri. The precipitable water values are estimated to increase to 2-2.25 inches in the 14z run of the RAP this morning from northeast Missouri across central Illinois. A closed 850-700 mb low moving across northern Missouri provides focus for lift in the area of greatest moisture, along with pre-frontal convergence east of a quasi stationary surface front near the Iowa/Illinois border and forming cold front in northeast Missouri. With moist, convergent flow centered near 850 mb, convection should develop in the higher precipitable water axis. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be likely given the high available moisture in east central Missouri. The high res models from the 12z NAM Conus Nest, 00z NSSL WRF, 13-14z HRRR, experimental HRRR, and 12z WRF ARW/ARW member 2 forecast clusters of 1-3 inches of rain by 21z, with isolated maxima to 5 inches. Flash flood guidance in 2-3 inches of rain in 3 hours, so flash flooding will be focused on the more persistent clusters of storms. The activity has been developing and moving a little more quickly to the east northeast than most of the guidance. The 06-12z Canadian regional GEM has captured the faster east progression better than the WRF ARW/NMMB/Experimental HRRR. Also, these models may be depicting heavier rain too far north into the area of less instability in southeast Iowa. Petersen ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...SGF... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 Cells w/sw of Peoria could head this way later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arishtat Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 That just went tornado warned too. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 141 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT. * AT 141 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH PEKIN, OR NEAR PEKIN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... PEKIN AROUND 155 PM CDT. TREMONT AROUND 205 PM CDT. MORTON AND MACKINAW AROUND 215 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GROVELAND. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... INTERSTATE 155 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 31. INTERSTATE 474 NEAR MILE MARKER 14. INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 99 AND 103. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 That tor warning for Tazewell county is in the Peoria area sweet spot historically for svr wx and tornadoes as many of us online have been reminded by Janet/Janet. I would watch the warm front as well as the usual warm sector to the south of it later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Confirmed tornado near South Pekin and Tremont IL on that tor warned storm per LSR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Radar from first tornado (south of South Pekin IL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Tornado watch issued at 2:10 Meso update on that watch at 2:13 3 mins..got to be the fastest ever TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...AN REMNANT MCV AND ITS RELATED STRONG DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS ORGANIZING LINEAR BOWING STORMS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ASIDE FROM MORE PREVALENT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 373... VALID 151913Z - 152015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 373 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO, ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TORNADO WATCH 373 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW NORTH OF COU IN CENTRAL MO, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IL NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A STRENGTHENING TREND WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS, PARTICULARLY THE STORM IN TAZEWELL COUNTY. AS EVIDENCED BY THE 17Z ILX SOUNDING, INSTABILITY IS MODEST IN THIS REGION, BUT VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG. AS A RESULT, MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE/ROTATE, CONTRIBUTING TO A SLIGHTLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE SUPPORTED BY THE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS (LIKE THOSE WEST OF TAZEWELL COUNTY) MAY BE ABLE TO TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE-BASED IF MID-LEVEL ROTATION PERSISTS AND/OR AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. CONSEQUENTLY, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Severe threat will easily miss south of the area the rest of today, but rain/t’storms congealing across DVN and ILX CWA’s will spread across the area this evening. Without widespread/heavier/training t’storms, amounts should be kept in check though, unless south of I-80.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 yup, zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 An lol worthy tiny tor watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Ever since the April 2004 Utica Illinois tornado I am always suspicious of warm fronts in situations like this where higher temps and dews are just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 Winds backed all out ahead of that earlier tor cell so will have to keep an eye on iso tor threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 407 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 415 PM CDT. * AT 406 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF GRIDLEY, OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PONTIAC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Tor warning now issued by LOT for Livingston County for the above warned storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Confirmed tornado near Chenoa IL moving east south of Pontiac along U.S. 24 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 348 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 348 PM CDT Watching an impressively wound-up convectively-enhanced Mesoscale Convective Vortex lifting northeastward out of Central Illinois this afternoon. This feature seems to have been born out of convection last night across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Typically the more well-developed MCV`s carry with them a flow enhancement, and that certainly seems to be the case here. Lincoln`s special 17z sounding sampled 50-60 kts of flow in the 550-400 mb layer, and this is supporting effectively deep layer shear values of about 50 kts into our southern counties. While overall instability values aren`t high (likely due to somewhat pronounced mid-level warming noted on the aforementioned sounding), recent objective SPC mesoanalysis depicts a corridor of 150 to nearly 200 J/kg of 0-3 km MLCAPE, more than sufficient in concert with the elevated shear values to locally augment low and mid- level updraft accelerations. It is thus not a surprise to see an established supercell northwest of Bloomington. The concern locally here is that even in the face of limited instability from a typical sense (read: MLCAPE), a hodograph run using KILX`s radar and the rather deviant storm motion on the right-motion vector and breezy southeast winds yields 0-3 km SRH values nearing 400-450 m2/s2. As a result, we did recently coordinate a small/targeted tornado watch for our far southwestern counties to highlight this localized threat developing over the next few hours. Corridor of localized damaging wind gusts and some hail threat will also exist in this region, although the limit on the hail potential should be capped a bit by the muted mid-level lapse rates. The severe threat will likely have a harder time building too much farther northwest than I-55 given the expansive and persistent cloud cover today holding temperatures down, but peeks of sunshine south and east of there may help locally boost the severe potential through this afternoon and into the evening. Finally, we are still monitoring at least a localized flash flood threat into the evening as rather slow storm motions and at least some potential for a bit of training will be possible within a richly-moist atmosphere. Already seeing some 2-3" rainfall amounts out of the storms upstream. Greatest signal for this potential is across roughly the southeastern half of the CWA. Carlaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 Tornado warned storm has made a noticeable right turn compared to before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Confirmed tornado heading for Springfield Illinois and points just east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 ILX doing a horrific job with warnings this afternoon. They have now had two tornadoes go un-warned, and both storms had good couplets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Tornado warned storm has made a noticeable right turn compared to before. Yes, it has. Concerned about my old environs of Kentland Indiana if the storm keeps rotating and heading in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Took this pic of tornado warned cell west of Gilman, Illinois about 30 minutes ago. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 worst flooding in quite a while here 2.85 inches on 1 hour at the airport last ob if it is correct 5 total City and SE metro hit hard Peoria, Pekin, East Peoria. Morton and smaller towns hit hard edit: several on facebook reporting 6 inch rain gauge overflowing NW side of Morton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 The tornado warnef cell NE of Towanda has a pretty tight couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 0640 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N PEORIA INTERNATIONA 40.70N 89.68W 07/15/2020 M6.48 INCH PEORIA IL TRAINED SPOTTER RAIN SINCE 1PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 47 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 0640 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N PEORIA INTERNATIONA 40.70N 89.68W 07/15/2020 M6.48 INCH PEORIA IL TRAINED SPOTTER RAIN SINCE 1PM Airport measured 5.19" including 2.85" in one hour and 1.41" in another hour KPIA 151954Z 06008KT 3/4SM R04/2200V5500FT +TSRA BR FEW007 BKN021 OVC027 21/19 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS SLP125 P0141 T02110194 KPIA 152254Z 35006KT 3/4SM R04/2800VP6000FT +RA BR SCT002 OVC015 23/21 A2981 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE22 SLP092 P0285 T02280211 KPIA 152354Z 07006KT 10SM OVC004 23/21 A2982 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E AND SE RAE40 CIG 003V007 SLP094 P0016 60515 T02280211 10239 20211 55024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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