2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

[King James]

Warned cell west of here... we'll see if it makes it over eventually. 

Friend saying there are real high winds and hail in that

 

Edit

He’s near Homer Glen

[cyclone77]

Can see rock hard looking towers/thunderheads on the eastern/southeastern horizon from here.  Looks like a nice event for areas to the east.  

[fluoronium]

Some nice towers going up here as well. If anything pops up close enough I'll take a drive to enjoy some lightning at least.

[WeatherMonger]

Cell to my SSW near Girard started to go up then completely fell apart. May serve as a trigger for something if an outflow can drift towards me or could overturn the airmass and negate any other chances.

 

If I were a betting man I'd choose the latter as it seems to happen 85% of the time.

[bowtie`]

For those around Chicago, why do you need two boundaries, one north side and one south side? Doubling your bets?

[A-L-E-K]

interested in the lapse rate storm prospects weds as well

[hlcater]

look what 2020 has reduced people to

 

this "event" lol

[Chicago Storm]

interested in the lapse rate storm prospects weds as well

zzz


.

[A-L-E-K]

gotta be rough for yall with actual severe not happening anymore

[Chicago Storm]

gotta be rough for yall with actual severe not happening anymore

Still got 90’s to look forward to.


.

[WeatherMonger]

Under a warning but see no need for it. Had a good CTG just north of me, took about 10 seconds to get the thunder clap.

 

Light rain, good temp drop of 15-20 degrees and very little wind at my location, SW side of Springfield.

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

zzz


.

At least Chicago doesn't get lake shadowed.  This weak diurnal stuff always skips over my area.  Storms make it 2/3 the way over the lake then die.

[purduewx80]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

some quality garden variety going up over the city now

new cells blowing up quickly on the outflow boundary from that first round. warning for northern Cook...looks like some hail in that too.

[wisconsinwx]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

gotta be rough for yall with actual severe not happening anymore

Yeah, garden variety storms are all the rage, and if you're not with it I guess it's back to your regularly scheduled programming....

[wisconsinwx]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Still got 90’s to look forward to.


.

zzzzz

[SchaumburgStormer]

Going to be a line of significant rain totals from Peoria to N Burbs. Some serious training in that area. Meanwhile, my back yard has been dry all day. 

[Guest ovweather]

Is it just a matter of my perspective or do thunderstorms as of late lack really good, intense lightning? Back in the 1990’s and early 2000’s I use to do a lot of lightning photography down here in the lower OV. Several times a week during the summer months I would head out to watch and photograph storms that rarely disappointed in terms of great lightning. Lots of dramatic CG’s and booming thunderclaps, and post storm anvil crawlers. Over the past 10+ years, I’ve only seen a handful of nice lightning producing storms, but even those lacked what I saw 15-25 years ago. Most storms of late have only had the occasional ho-hum in-cloud flashes, and if lucky, the occasional closer strike and ripping thunderclap. I miss the drama of intense lightning in storms. What gives?

[WestMichigan]

13 hours ago, frostfern said:

At least Chicago doesn't get lake shadowed.  This weak diurnal stuff always skips over my area.  Storms make it 2/3 the way over the lake then die.

I'm closer to the lake than you so I am all too familiar with that shadow.  Got 0.03" last night and that is it.

[fluoronium]

I got missed by most of the rain yesterday and didn't even see a single flash of lightning clouds looked cool though at least.

17 hours ago, ovweather said:

Is it just a matter of my perspective or do thunderstorms as of late lack really good, intense lightning? Back in the 1990’s and early 2000’s I use to do a lot of lightning photography down here in the lower OV. Several times a week during the summer months I would head out to watch and photograph storms that rarely disappointed in terms of great lightning. Lots of dramatic CG’s and booming thunderclaps, and post storm anvil crawlers. Over the past 10+ years, I’ve only seen a handful of nice lightning producing storms, but even those lacked what I saw 15-25 years ago. Most storms of late have only had the occasional ho-hum in-cloud flashes, and if lucky, the occasional closer strike and ripping thunderclap. I miss the drama of intense lightning in storms. What gives?

I can at least agree that 2020 has lacked lightning for my local area. That being said the last week of September 2019 brought me a couple of the most violent lightning storms I have ever witnessed, so not all hope is lost for me yet

[frostfern]

7 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

I'm closer to the lake than you so I am all too familiar with that shadow.  Got 0.03" last night and that is it.

West Michigan seems to miss out on most general afternoon thunder.  Hopefully Friday will feature a more organized MCS.  Will really need the rain by then.  Who knows if it will be evenly distributed though.  So often it's a 40 mile wide E-W ribbon of 2-3" with almost nothing north or south.

[frostfern]

19 hours ago, ovweather said:

Is it just a matter of my perspective or do thunderstorms as of late lack really good, intense lightning? Back in the 1990’s and early 2000’s I use to do a lot of lightning photography down here in the lower OV. Several times a week during the summer months I would head out to watch and photograph storms that rarely disappointed in terms of great lightning. Lots of dramatic CG’s and booming thunderclaps, and post storm anvil crawlers. Over the past 10+ years, I’ve only seen a handful of nice lightning producing storms, but even those lacked what I saw 15-25 years ago. Most storms of late have only had the occasional ho-hum in-cloud flashes, and if lucky, the occasional closer strike and ripping thunderclap. I miss the drama of intense lightning in storms. What gives?

I've seen a lot more IC activity compared to CGs.  I think the big MCS with a large anvil and stratiform region produce more frequent CGs.  Afternoon pop-up stuff doesn't always perform in terms of photogenic CGs, and that's what it's been this year.  I think low cloud bases and heavy warm-process precip can be a problem for lightning photography.  You often can't see the lighting until the storm is practically over you, then it's hard to photograph.  If you don't get a strong MCS that produces lots of bolts-from-the-blue ahead of the rain shafts, the window for getting lighting is really brief.  It's so much easier to film big bolts out west where you have high bases and much less precip.  The Arizona monsoon can be amazing.

[Guest ovweather]

1 hour ago, fluoronium said:

I got missed by most of the rain yesterday and didn't even see a single flash of lightning clouds looked cool though at least.

I can at least agree that 2020 has lacked lightning for my local area. That being said the last week of September 2019 brought me a couple of the most violent lightning storms I have ever witnessed, so not all hope is lost for me yet

I'm sure it's just a matter of my weather weenie perspective that every storm should be a great lightning producer, but at least in my location in the lower OV, I sure haven't witnessed an intense lightning producing storm in a very long time. For that matter, 2020 appears to be yet another year of a general lack of severe storms down here. Lots of heavy rain producing showers / weaker thunderstorms, but nothing to remember. I miss the good old days.

[Guest ovweather]

2 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I've seen a lot more IC activity compared to CGs.  I think the big MCS with a large anvil and stratiform region produce more frequent CGs.  Afternoon pop-up stuff doesn't always perform in terms of photogenic CGs, and that's what it's been this year.  I think low cloud bases and heavy warm-process precip can be a problem for lightning photography.  You often can't see the lighting until the storm is practically over you, then it's hard to photograph.  If you don't get a strong MCS that produces lots of bolts-from-the-blue ahead of the rain shafts, the window for getting lighting is really brief.  It's so much easier to film big bolts out west where you have high bases and much less precip.  The Arazona monsoon can be amazing.

Most of my best lightning photographs came from smaller clusters of storms, although the MCS's do sometimes provide nice post-storm anvil crawler lightning, if the post stratiform rain shield moves out fast enough.

I guess the lack of CG's in storms the past several years intrigues me. I can fondly remember storms from 20 years ago that frequently produced intense cloud to ground lightning, with the subsequent ear-crushing thunderclaps that sent shivers down your spine.

[wisconsinwx]

12 minutes ago, ovweather said:

I'm sure it's just a matter of my weather weenie perspective that every storm should be a great lightning producer, but at least in my location in the lower OV, I sure haven't witnessed an intense lightning producing storm in a very long time. For that matter, 2020 appears to be yet another year of a general lack of severe storms down here. Lots of heavy rain producing showers / weaker thunderstorms, but nothing to remember. I miss the good old days.

I agree it feels that way for me too.  Besides 2010 and 2014, not any recent years stand out for garden variety storms, let alone severe, and what we do get tend to be very progressive.  2000-2010 was a lot more exciting for storms imo than 2011-2020 have been.

[frostfern]

27 minutes ago, ovweather said:

Most of my best lightning photographs came from smaller clusters of storms, although the MCS's do sometimes provide nice post-storm anvil crawler lightning, if the post stratiform rain shield moves out fast enough.

I guess the lack of CG's in storms the past several years intrigues me. I can fondly remember storms from 20 years ago that frequently produced intense cloud to ground lightning, with the subsequent ear-crushing thunderclaps that sent shivers down your spine.

Usually mature multicell clusters and concave-type structures produce good CG barrages.  Bow echo's are often tilted back towards the stratiform region so a lot of the CGs land on the back side under the rain.  It's often hard to find a lot of CGs out in front of a bow.  QLCS type storm will produce lots of CGs in rain-free zone where there is a concave kink or curve to the line.  The convex/bowing segments don't tend to have a lot of CGs out front.  They tend to be on the back side instead.

Having a big anvil also seems to play a role too.  Very new/isolated storms that haven't produced much of an anvil yet can be kind of lightning-sparce even when they have intense updrafts (even hail and such).  I mean, they often do have a lot of lighting but it's usually predominately IC and not noticeable during the day.

[frostfern]

22 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

I agree it feels that way for me too.  Besides 2010 and 2014, not any recent years stand out for garden variety storms, let alone severe, and what we do get tend to be very progressive.  2000-2010 was a lot more exciting for storms imo than 2011-2020 have been.

June 21-22 2010 was wild.  I don't think I'll ever experience that again. 

[Guest ovweather]

6 hours ago, frostfern said:

Usually mature multicell clusters and concave-type structures produce good CG barrages.  Bow echo's are often tilted back towards the stratiform region so a lot of the CGs land on the back side under the rain.  It's often hard to find a lot of CGs out in front of a bow.  QLCS type storm will produce lots of CGs in rain-free zone where there is a concave kink or curve to the line.  The convex/bowing segments don't tend to have a lot of CGs out front.  They tend to be on the back side instead.

Having a big anvil also seems to play a role too.  Very new/isolated storms that haven't produced much of an anvil yet can be kind of lightning-sparce even when they have intense updrafts (even hail and such).  I mean, they often do have a lot of lighting but it's usually predominately IC and not noticeable during the day.

Good info. Some of my better CG lightning photos did occur when storms were still in the growing stage / just starting to spit out lightning bolts. But yes, the multi-cell clusters that are maintaining their intensities seem to produce some of the best lightning, both CG’s and visible IG bolts. Lately though, the multi-cell clusters here have simply lacked that “wow factor” lightning, even during slight, moderate, etc, severe outlook days.

[wisconsinwx]

6 hours ago, frostfern said:

June 21-22 2010 was wild.  I don't think I'll ever experience that again. 

Yep, the week of storm action starting June 18, 2010 (it was a Friday) through June 24 gave excitement for everyone in this forum I believe.

[frostfern]

Just now, wisconsinwx said:

Yep, the week of storm action starting June 18, 2010 (it was a Friday) through June 24 gave excitement for everyone in this forum I believe.

I remember the MCV coming through around 2 AM on the 22nd being incredible in terms of constant lightning bolts.

[wisconsinwx]

1 minute ago, frostfern said:

I remember the MCV coming through around 2 AM on the 22nd being incredible in terms of constant lightning bolts.

The origins of those storms were in SC Wisconsin I believe and gave us the Eagle tornado the evening of the 21st.  On the 18th there were two consecutive derechos that came through many of the same areas (we were only impacted by one here but it was still noteworthy).