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2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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Just now, Indystorm said:

Chicago area point forecasts show 50% chance of t storms after 10 p.m. tonight.  Would this be from storms moving in from the nw or from the boundary to our south moving back ne as a quasi WF?

upper low moving in will support destabilization. projecting out cells in NE IA now...they would be here closer to 11-12, but there could be some development out ahead of it. Cu growth has occurred so you can see the signs of instability building behind the AM activity.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
634 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  EASTERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 634 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR OXFORD JUNCTION TO NEAR LOWDEN TO NEAR  
  ROCHESTER, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  
  
  THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS!  
  
  HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT   
           CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES.   
           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  DAVENPORT, ROCK ISLAND, BETTENDORF, CLINTON, DURANT, ELDRIDGE,  
  DEWITT, CAMANCHE, LE CLAIRE, WILTON, WALCOTT, BLUE GRASS, BUFFALO,  
  ALBANY, PRINCETON, LONG GROVE, LOWDEN, WHEATLAND, GRAND MOUND AND  
  WYOMING.  
  

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6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:
That's some serious wind at MLI lol.  Hearing of lots of power outages from peeps in the QC, which isn't too surprising.  Looks like we'll just get grazed with a moderate thundershower here which is fine with me.  Don't want no part of that 80mph crap lol.


If this is the new “grazed by a thundershower”, I want in.

fa6e6bab3c0c522aad96ac50eb63aad5.jpg


.

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I didn't lose power from this although I had a brownout that lasted for about one second (happened about a minute after the winds started).  The complex of storms didn't look too impressive on radar and I figured that we would only get some sub severe wind.  Boy was I wrong.  Several gusts of up to 60-70 mph here.  The worst of the winds happened before the rains started (3-4 minutes), which mean that the gust front was ahead of the complex.  Winds lasted a good 7-8 minutes here.  Hawkeye surely cashed in on this although as you said, he likely lost power.  Over 15k people without power in Linn County right down (down from over 18k a bit earlier).  Not as bad as June 30, 2014 (which was the last major straight line wind event here before today).

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This RAP fcst sounding from the southern tip of Lake Michigan at 12Z tomorrow morning is nothing short of impressive. That's lake-induced CAPE...suspect there will be some waterspouts out there in the morning. Can't rule out a thunderstorm making it into parts of Chicago and NW Indiana as the surge of cooler air moves in.

image.thumb.png.3bbb9a9bae05d0c9c69dc1f9c1c8b425.png

00Z HRRR valid at 12Z:

image.thumb.png.9048567b972dad52493fb7b9846f9e5f.png

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My power just came back on.  I actually got off easy.  There are severe wind reports from the north and east sides of CR, but at my house on the west side it was probably 50 mph.  I also got a bit of pea size hail.  The line pushed through quickly, so I only received 0.42" of rain.  I finally got a solid storm with thunder and lightning, although the thunder was pretty muted with no cracks at all.

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10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

All guidance is onboard for Wed being a solid severe wx day somewhere in the area/region.

The main question is, where does the boundary set up after Tue nights activity, in which Wed activity will run along.

MCV + 2" PWATs....gonna be some flood threat too. 

Also...this is unreal for July. Phenomenal jet dynamics in play.

image.thumb.png.3e7a72b2467149508ff55ef6c4159e56.png

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