snowlover2 Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 Maybe a little severe for IN/OH tomorrow. Mention of slight risk possibly being needed. Quote ..OHIO VALLEY REGION STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. PRECEDING THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER, LOW 40S F DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHEAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEPENING (7-7.5 C/KM) MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. THESE PROCESSES ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING OF THE SURFACE LAYER WILL RESULT IN 300-600 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STRONG DPVA AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS IT ADVANCES EAST. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST THREAT. HOWEVER, A SLGT MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 FWA G78MPH with that line of weak convection moving through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 42 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: FWA G78MPH with that line of weak convection moving through. That report puzzles me. Viewer a mile north reported just some gusty wind. I live 15 MI NE of the airport and had maybe 40-50 mph gusts. No other reports even close to that. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: That report puzzles me. Viewer a mile north reported just some gusty wind. I live 15 MI NE of the airport and had maybe 40-50 mph gusts. No other reports even close to that. Weird Several damage reports down that way as well, so seems valid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 60 mph wind gust at Lima, OH (airport) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 31 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Several damage reports down that way as well, so seems valid. Some damage reports, but all rather mild or what you might expect with low end severe. Nothing that seems to suggest nearly 80 mph wind. Just seems very localized. Not saying it's impossible, since it was obviously recorded, but it seems to be a huge outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: FWA G78MPH with that line of weak convection moving through. 3 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: Some damage reports, but all rather mild. Nothing that seems to suggest nearly 80 mph wind. Not saying it's impossible, just perplexed since nothing report-wise seems to reflect that. It seemed weird to me too. I have a spotter who lives about 8 miles due east of the airport (in extreme northeastern Huntington County) who reported that winds there were no stronger than 40 mph, which was about the strongest we had here in Huntington. I saw some scattered damage reports ENE of the airport, but nothing that would suggest 75mph + gusts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, IWXwx said: It seemed weird to me too. I have a spotter who lives about 8 miles due east of the airport (in extreme northeastern Huntington County) who reported that winds there were no stronger than 40 mph, which was about the strongest we had here in Huntington. I saw some scattered damage reports ENE of the airport, but nothing that would suggest 75mph + gusts. Quite surprising but with sustained at 35kt a severe gust isn't too surprising. I would have never guessed 78mph gust though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: Some damage reports, but all rather mild or what you might expect with low end severe. Nothing that seems to suggest nearly 80 mph wind. Just seems very localized. Not saying it's impossible, since it was obviously recorded, but it seems to be a huge outlier 11 minutes ago, IWXwx said: It seemed weird to me too. I have a spotter who lives about 8 miles due east of the airport (in extreme northeastern Huntington County) who reported that winds there were no stronger than 40 mph, which was about the strongest we had here in Huntington. I saw some scattered damage reports ENE of the airport, but nothing that would suggest 75mph + gusts. These are significant... 0140 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.10W 05/10/2020 ALLEN IN PUBLIC WIRES DOWNED, TREES INTO HOUSES. PRIMARILY EAST SIDE OF FORT WAYNE INTO NEW HAVEN. 0210 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S FORT WAYNE 41.05N 85.14W 05/10/2020 ALLEN IN AMATEUR RADIO 15-20 FOOT TREE DOWNED AT ARCADIA CT. AND HOAGLAND AVE. TREE PARTIALLY BLOCKING ARCARDIA CT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: These are significant... 0140 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.10W 05/10/2020 ALLEN IN PUBLIC WIRES DOWNED, TREES INTO HOUSES. PRIMARILY EAST SIDE OF FORT WAYNE INTO NEW HAVEN. 0210 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S FORT WAYNE 41.05N 85.14W 05/10/2020 ALLEN IN AMATEUR RADIO 15-20 FOOT TREE DOWNED AT ARCADIA CT. AND HOAGLAND AVE. TREE PARTIALLY BLOCKING ARCARDIA CT. Whoa, yeah that definitely leads credibility to the 78mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Local threat possible on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 MCV coming out of the Southern Plains storms today, plus ample low level instability, could make for some fun times tomorrow. SPC has a 5% tor across C to NC IL back into KS. Morning convection could obviously kill the day, but it may also lay a boundary that further enhances low level SRH and generates better hodo shapes. Grungy/HP supercells may be the supercell mode with not ideal venting up top, but with how the low-levels are looking, definitely could be a few tors out there. I'll be chasing unless morning convection ruins the setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 12 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Local threat possible on Thursday. gonna suck when this ends up training along I80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 HRRRv4 says wagons north, I'm gonna ride my new God tier model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 Looks like there could be some junk lingering through late morning if not into the afternoon around here. But there is a nice reservoir of relatively steep mid level lapse rates advecting in during the afternoon/evening so I am less concerned about the lingering junk than I otherwise would be. Overall setup appears to have potential to evolve into a respectable damaging wind event with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 sunset mammatus watch 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 50 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looks like there could be some junk lingering through late morning if not into the afternoon around here. But there is a nice reservoir of relatively steep mid level lapse rates advecting in during the afternoon/evening so I am less concerned about the lingering junk than I otherwise would be. Overall setup appears to have potential to evolve into a respectable damaging wind event with time. The LLJ should be strong enough too tomorrow to help aid in recovery from morning convection. I've seen worse setups, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Tomorrow definitely holds potential, but all hinges on tonight/tomorrow mornings activity. SGT risk looks good for now, but could need upgrade to ENH in the morning once everything becomes clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 I would ideally like to see more surface backing tomorrow(to SSW or even due S) than is currently modeled if I were forecasting for tornadoes. Storm motion is also boundary parallel, but that doesn't seem like a variable that is likely to change. Lapse rates through 500mb per 18z runs are actually quite steep (all exceeding 7.0*C/km) and would support a damaging wind and potentially even a hail threat should any supercells evolve. I'll be out if it looks like any enhanced corridors of low level shear are likely to evolve. Looking pretty sloppy regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 6 hours ago, madwx said: HRRRv4 says wagons north, I'm gonna ride my new God tier model. Has that been doing better than the HRRR and NAM3? I haven't really used that one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Has that been doing better than the HRRR and NAM3? I haven't really used that one yet. Overall I’d say better. It doesn’t overmix like the HRRR does and has a more realistic convective representation than the 3KNAM. It’s not perfect but definitely an upgrade. It’s nailed a couple events in the past month that the others have whiffed on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 I've already started a thread encompassing tomorrow's severe weather (plus in case tonight's marginal in W IL/E IA ramps up) through this weekend's heavy rain threat as the front stalls: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Has that been doing better than the HRRR and NAM3? I haven't really used that one yet. 54 minutes ago, madwx said: Overall I’d say better. It doesn’t overmix like the HRRR does and has a more realistic convective representation than the 3KNAM. It’s not perfect but definitely an upgrade. It’s nailed a couple events in the past month that the others have whiffed on It is definitely much better, as madwx pointed out. Not just for our region either...It has done well in the Plains as well. A recent example was when it nailed the 5/7 event from 1+ day out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 hours ago, madwx said: Overall I’d say better. It doesn’t overmix like the HRRR does and has a more realistic convective representation than the 3KNAM. It’s not perfect but definitely an upgrade. It’s nailed a couple events in the past month that the others have whiffed on 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: It is definitely much better, as madwx pointed out. Not just for our region either...It has done well in the Plains as well. A recent example was when it nailed the 5/7 event from 1+ day out. Good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 The NAMs show the type of environment I’m looking for with regards to tornadoes. Both have an area of localized backing in W IL with good thermos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Let’s try to get excited about a marginal threat tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 liking a local threat tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Yeah if the HRRR/HRRRV4 are anywhere close to accurate there could be some nice tors tomorrow afternoon. Very low LCLs and very nice low-level shear, combined with more than adequate instability. Looking like a great local setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 On 5/22/2020 at 10:40 AM, cyclone77 said: Yeah if the HRRR/HRRRV4 are anywhere close to accurate there could be some nice tors tomorrow afternoon. Very low LCLs and very nice low-level shear, combined with more than adequate instability. Looking like a great local setup. Yea, tomorrow definitely has potential across E IA and N IL. SPC holding at marginal is comical, but par for the course with them. Unfortunately, I’ll still be out of town for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Definitely not needing another deluge but definitely liking the upcoming week with pop up storms and mid 80s. Such a stark contrast compared to earlier this month and finally feeling like summer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now