RCNYILWX Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 SPC removed most of north IL from the day 2 threat. Euro and RGEM both continue to develop some precip over the area, so I guess we'll have to see how things evolve. I'm completely baffled by that outlook. The ECMWF has had CI over northwest/north central IL every run since at least Friday. And SPC took general thunder out from that area. It makes no sense. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, geddyweather said: That D2 outlook is one of the goofier updates I've seen lately. Went from localized in the OH Valley to almost 5 whole states completely covered in SLGT including basically all of the lower/mid Appalachians... yeah not sure why Northern Illinois was basically completely removed. HREF probs look pretty good for storms in the area and there will be a front moving through at peak heating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 minute ago, madwx said: yeah not sure why Northern Illinois was basically completely removed. HREF probs look pretty good for storms in the area and there will be a front moving through at peak heating. I forgot to even touch on that lol. But definitely need *something* out that way. I was prepared to see some expansion of the risk area, but what they did was not what I (or really anyone apparently) had in mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 The SPC is banking hard on a derecho tomorrow I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 I took the plunge and started a thread for tonight thru Wednesday's possible severe action in parts of the sub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: I'm completely baffled by that outlook. The ECMWF has had CI over northwest/north central IL every run since at least Friday. And SPC took general thunder out from that area. It makes no sense. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Good to know you guys are just as confused. I would love to know what Goss looked at because nearly none of the models look that way both in lack of storms for your area or a massive area deemed for a SLGT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Good to know you guys are just as confused. I would love to know what Goss looked at because nearly none of the models look that way both in lack of storms for your area or a massive area deemed for a SLGT.The thinking for our area is that the biggest concern is the strong capping that could potentially hold. However, the conditional threat is rather high given how steep the lapse rates are along with more than sufficient bulk shear. We routinely get marginal or even slight risks in this sort of scenario where strong EML capping is a concern. And then to go farther and remove the general thunder when that's always broad brushed while several models not just the Euro show CI in the area it was removed from is an even bigger head scratcher. The Euro has had essentially the same scenario for 4 days in a row, which doesn't necessarily mean it's right, but it hasn't diverged as it's gotten closer to the event. Considering that the Euro typically does quite well with temperatures, dew points and thus instability in this area, I'm not sure why it was completely discounted by Goss. What makes it tough is that the outlook text doesn't even explain why the change was made, plus the fact that within marginal or slight risk categories the SPC never collaborates proactively with the WFOs. We have to chat them to get feedback about how the outlook may look. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2020 Author Share Posted April 25, 2020 Severe threat on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Severe threat on Tuesday? Skilling mentioned this possible threat several days ago. Was concerned about the system's amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2020 Author Share Posted April 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Skilling mentioned this possible threat several days ago. Was concerned about the system's amplitude. I do wish we had better mid level lapse rates in the warm sector. They sort of lag behind more in the post frontal regime. That being said, could have enough favorable factors come together for at least some threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: OK, you asked for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 Surprise for April 25 here in sw IN Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments 1825 5 NNW MOUNT VERNON POSEY IN 3800 8792 LATE REPORT. BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NORTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON NEAR COPPERLINE ROAD AND BASE ROAD INTERSECTION. (PAH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 Right now SPC has a marginal risk on Tuesday April 28 for IL but says in the discussion that severe probs may need to be increased for the Midwest if instability increases in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 Tue looks like a marginal-slight worthy risk for areas near/south of I-80 in IA/IL/IN. Beyond that, I had been mentioning elsewhere for a while now that severe chances would likely increase for the Plains/Midwest for first weekend of May into the first week of May...and we have now been consistently seeing signs on longer range guidance that will likely be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Tue looks like a marginal-slight worthy risk for areas near/south of I-80 in IA/IL/IN. Beyond that, I had been mentioning elsewhere for a while now that severe chances would likely increase for the Plains/Midwest for first weekend of May into the first week of May...and we have now been consistently seeing signs on longer range guidance that will likely be the case. ring of fire pattern....please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baum said: ring of fire pattern....please? Check back at the end of June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 53 minutes ago, madwx said: Check back at the end of June yup. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Hmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Indystorm said: Hmm..... Sleeper setup that could be alright if moisture/thermos are there. Nothing high end and there's a ton of uncertainty regarding convective evolution, but these tight surface lows kind of have a hot hand in 2020. I'll be keeping a half eye on it for potentially a local chase Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 5% tor in IL/SE IA/NE MO in new day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, yoda said: 5% tor in IL/SE IA/NE MO in new day 2 Quote ...CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH. AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR PROBABLE FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO AND IL. AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR, ALONG WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS IF STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT GIVEN A FAVORABLE STORM MODE AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND WESTERN KY/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Only real change on new day 2 is an expansion south of the 5% tornado area through SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Based on current Monday afternoon 3k NAM and HRRR if I were chasing Tuesday I would focus on late afternoon from west central IL to the Peoria region for possible tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Argh, probably too far south for me on a work day same as a month prior (especially since I have to pick up an online grocery order and bring it home after work). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Eastern Iowa could get several severe storms, with a chance for tornadoes. The SBCAPE may only reach 1000-1800 J/kg, which is generally kind of low, considering the SHARPpy-based soundings seem to have high CAPE numbers a lot of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Tomorrow still looks like a low-end risk day. Cloud cover/shower debris issues will be too widespread and significant. Only the HRRR's are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 ...Midwest... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread into the mid-MS Valley region Tuesday afternoon as exit region of upper jet shifts across IA. Diffluent high-level flow should overspread this region which should aid scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front from MO, north to near the surface low. Latest short-range model guidance/CAMs are fairly aggressive in developing scattered deep convection, possibly supercellular, within an increasingly sheared regime. While low-level moisture is initially a bit dry, rapid boundary-layer moistening is expected across MO into IL ahead of the wind shift. This should allow substantial buoyancy to evolve that would support potentially organized supercells. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible with pre-frontal supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 today kinda has an over performer stank locally 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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