Hoosier Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Our usual thread for small/non thread worthy severe and also for longer range severe discussion. Nothing imminent but there are some signs in the long range that the large scale pattern may become more favorable toward mid March. Could end up not leading to anything but remember I am the guy who started the winter thread a couple weeks before the halloween storm. In the meantime, since nothing is going on, feel free to post thoughts on the upcoming season or talk about past events, etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 Guess the outbreak Time's up. March 28, 1920. That means it will be 100 years. The numbers on the map represent order of occurrence. This is like a toned down version of the April 1965 outbreak. Geographic area affected is remarkably similar. 7 of these tornadoes in IL/IN/MI/OH were rated F4. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 pretty impressive to see tornadoes right up against Lake Michigan that early in the season. Definitely have positive feelings about this severe season. the jet has been ripping along so far and if continues into spring that will help promote increased shear and less meridional flow which will lead to more turning with height. Have seen 1990 thrown around as an analog and seeing some similarities in the March pattern(1990 also feature a double spike of extremely high AO values in February). Have also seen 1991, 2007 and a few other years thrown around that would portend average to above average tornado risk this spring. Personally I'll be out chasing the last 10 days of may so hoping for an active stretch then. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Best time of the year just starting. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 There have been at least 19 EF-2 tornadoes to date in 2020 according to Ian Livingston of the U.S. Tornadoes Site. His Capital Weather Gang will be making their spring prediction by the end of this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Gonna be a good year fellas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 38 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: Gonna be a good year fellas A good year for us bustin once again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Guess the outbreak Time's up. March 28, 1920. That means it will be 100 years. The numbers on the map represent order of occurrence. This is like a toned down version of the April 1965 outbreak. Geographic area affected is remarkably similar. 7 of these tornadoes in IL/IN/MI/OH were rated F4. YOU DIDNT GIVE ME ENOUGH TIME!!!! Plus I did know this one. Back when Michigan got tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 early season optimism running high in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: early season optimism running high in here Means high bust potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 After the big tornado outbreak here in Dayton, last Memorial Day, I'm coming here to hopefully jinx the severe weather projections for this area. Sorry guys. We don't need any more severe weather around here for awhile. How 'bout 6 inches of snow or somethin' :-) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Let’s go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Tornado watch issued this Monday evening March 2 for the Evansville/Paducah area on sw to Harrison Arkansas. Primary concern is large hail with good lapse rates but a tornado or two also possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 630 PM CST. * AT 552 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BROOKPORT, OR NEAR PADUCAH, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...AT 5:50 PM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY, KY. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PADUCAH, METROPOLIS, BROOKPORT, SMITHLAND AND HAMLETSBURG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 MOC203-030030- /O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200303T0030Z/ SHANNON MO- 611 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY... AT 610 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF EMINENCE, OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF VAN BUREN, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 First tornado warning of this episode. Usual procedure forward is to post only radar confirmed or spotter indicated tornadoes. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 614 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 700 PM CST. * AT 614 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ELLSINORE, OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VAN BUREN, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... ELLSINORE AROUND 620 PM CST. BRUSH ARBOR AROUND 640 PM CST. WILLIAMSVILLE AROUND 700 PM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 .A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE AND NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES... AT 624 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ELLSINORE, OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF PIEDMONT, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. A POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 21 SOUTH AND HIGHWAY 60 AT 620 PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Helicity is increasing in the tor watch area...with temps in mid 60's and dews in the upper 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 711 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 MOC223-030145- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200303T0145Z/ WAYNE MO- 711 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR WAYNE COUNTY... AT 708 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PIEDMONT, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. THE PUBLIC REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO BETWEEN PIEDMONT AND MILL SPRING AT 705 PM. ANOTHER STRONG CIRCULATION WAS 9 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE. THIS STORM WAS ALSO PRODUCING PING PONG SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 822 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN TODD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 900 PM CST. * AT 820 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEIR, OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOPKINSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THIS STORM ALSO HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE IN THE CROFTON AREA. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... WEIR AROUND 825 PM CST. DUNMOR AROUND 845 PM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Still a good amount of action going on... 2 TWs currently in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 This was the radar from the reported tornado at Crofton KY earlier (8:00PM CST/ 9:00PM EST). At the current time, some tornado warnings are ongoing around Waverly, Tennessee/ Tennessee City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Not in our subforum, but the tornado death toll is up to 22 in Tennessee. I love being a weather hobbyist, spotter, and chaser, but in my profession, that's my worst nightmare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 24 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Not in our subforum, but the tornado death toll is up to 22 in Tennessee. I love being a weather hobbyist, spotter, and chaser, but in my profession, that's my worst nightmare. Late night, strong tornado, and a populated area is a recipe for maximized casualties. Especially as a storm of that severity was not expected that far east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Late night, strong tornado, and a populated area is a recipe for maximized casualties. Especially as a storm of that severity was not expected that far east. Just like Dayton on Memorial day but we obviously were much luckier on the death total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Late night, strong tornado, and a populated area is a recipe for maximized casualties. Especially as a storm of that severity was not expected that far east. My friend woke up and ran to the bathroom. He’s okay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 The Nashville tornado reminded me that you can have destructive tornadoes with temps in the low 60's and dews in the upper 50's. You don't always need dews approaching 70. This event did have very strong lapse rates, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 10:48 PM, Hoosier said: Guess the outbreak Time's up. March 28, 1920. That means it will be 100 years. The numbers on the map represent order of occurrence. This is like a toned down version of the April 1965 outbreak. Geographic area affected is remarkably similar. 7 of these tornadoes in IL/IN/MI/OH were rated F4. I checked ontario records couldn't find anything for this date. Guess it goes like the Palm Sunday 1965 where the tornadoes didnt make it over the border 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Indystorm said: The Nashville tornado reminded me that you can have destructive tornadoes with temps in the low 60's and dews in the upper 50s Its even more important for the public to understand that since the classic idea of tornado weather to many is hot and humid, not the first warm day of spring in the 60s to 70 type weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 10:12 PM, outflow said: Its even more important for the public to understand that since the classic idea of tornado weather to many is hot and humid, not the first warm day of spring in the 60s to 70 type weather. Yea. Tornado outbreaks in March and April are usually going to coincide with abnormal warmth and humidity for the time of year. That doesn't mean you need summer-like temperatures though. Shear is far more important, and low cloud bases / high relative humidity is very beneficial because evaporative cooling from nearby precip won't completely stabilize surface-based storm-inflow. I think Dr. Leigh Orf's work provided some pretty strong evidence that violent tornadoes ingest a lot of surface-based parcels that are more stable than average, yet still realize some positive buoyancy once lifted into the middle levels of the storm by the upward vacuum-suction force of the rotating meso. Hot weather brings you the highest surface based CAPE, but that CAPE can be completely neutralized by just a little bit of precip if the boundary layer is characterized by low relative humidity. The result is many hot-day summer supercells have elevated inflow, and thus never produce tornadoes. Early spring supercells are very good at producing tornadoes because they often form in an environment where instability is more than adequate for strong convection despite high boundary layer relative humidity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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