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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's intriguing but I think the TOR potential is a bit overdone...I'm not sold on dews getting into the 60's and we'll need that to get sufficient 3km CAPE. I think the best potential is west :( 

It might be interesting to see the 24 hour DP curve.  

IT appears there may be a 'hockey stick' abrupt rise ... this meso-beta scaled low that brought the steady cold rain this morning is helping to delay the warm front - what's new. But looking upstream beneath the warm front that extends from N. Missouri to the Del Marva the whole region is unilaterally soaked in 65 F DPs and that's modeled to bodily foist up here. When/if the warm front does finally mix down, that might be trip!

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It might be interesting to see the 24 hour DP curve.  

IT appears there may be a 'hockey stick' abrupt rise ... this meso-beta scaled low that brought the steady cold rain this morning is helping to delay the warm front - what's new. But looking upstream beneath the warm front that extends from N. Missouri to the Del Marva the whole region is unilaterally soaked in 65 F and that's modeled to bodily foist up here. When/if the warm front does finally mix down, that might be trip!

I agree...certainly can't discount it. But that's also a great point about the warm front and we also know how difficult it is to get warm fronts to blow through this region...hell, even if we can get the warm front to position overhead...that would prevent the llvl flow from veering. 

I also think storm motion tends to favor more in the way of wind potential than tornado potential...despite the helicity levels. Of course you can always get the embedded meso within the band but I think we see several small clusters develop and one or two may take on a bow structure and produce some wind damage 

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

image.thumb.png.6f1b88293fd23ffaf52574db9a94c687.png

UKMET's decent too 

Will was mentioning a few days ago we'd might want to watch the 24th and indeed, it was in many ensembles then, prior and since... It's probably a rare thing to see this particular threat be inside of 120 hours in this particular year - ha!

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We always tell them, in SNE climate you can always get a biggie that changes the season relative to normal.

Nothing's gonna save the interior barring April '97 redux or some crazy string of back to back 12"+ storms....but it can become a little less embarrassing if they can snag a 10-15 incher on the way out....ORH is at like 35"....they need to almost double that to hit normal (69").

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Nothing's gonna save the interior barring April '97 redux or some crazy string of back to back 12"+ storms....but it can become a little less embarrassing if they can snag a 10-15 incher on the way out....ORH is at like 35"....they need to almost double that to hit normal (69").

I love that you think about it this way.

  • Haha 1
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