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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

You know everything is qualified right?  A lush green lawn is a few blades turning green, flower blooming are the shoots coming up from the ground and full leaf out is the tiniest tip of one emerging from it's bud.

Perfectly put.

 

In other words...gross exaggeration of what is actually happening currently lol.  That's how the posts have to be taken.

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14 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

I can take some pictures of the area around the office today in Stamford if it's needed. There is a tree now with little dark red buds. There's no doubt we'll be ahead of schedule by several weeks this year.

Yes, we are a few weeks ahead of where we normally are.  The earliest my forsythia's have been in bloom is 3/24 in 2012 and 3/31 in 2002.  My average date is 4/18 so when they bloom we'll know how far we are ahead.  That's the only date I track on my weather record but I also have records from my maple sugaring.  I always tap the weekend after valentines day and my season ends at the end of March.  I'm still collecting sap and this weekend looks like we'll have ideal weather (40s/20s) for several days so I'll be collecting into next week and that also points to us being about 1-2 weeks ahead of where we normally are.

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10 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Yes, we are a few weeks ahead of where we normally are.  The earliest my forsythia's have been in bloom is 3/24 in 2012 and 3/31 in 2002.  My average date is 4/18 so when they bloom we'll know how far we are ahead.  That's the only date I track on my weather record but I also have records from my maple sugaring.  I always tap the weekend after valentines day and my season ends at the end of March.  I'm still collecting sap and this weekend looks like we'll have ideal weather (40s/20s) for several days so I'll be collecting into next week and that also points to us being about 1-2 weeks ahead of where we normally are.

At least the season isn't ruined for you. I remember my only apple tree was murdered by the March to April 2012 temperature whiplash. I only grew the apple tree because it was there when we had moved in and I liked it. I can't imagine what happened to commercial growers.

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Since the comparison seems to be > than meaningless after all...  

Here's 2012 March, (  https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201203):  ... I did a spot look up on Hartford, CT for that month and they eye-popped a +9.6 above average monthly mean. 

March 2012 Temperature anomalies

Contrasting, as of 1/3 of the present 2020 March in the books, Hartford is averaging +9.9

Now... prognostics would argue we settle off this largely impressive departure as some of these over-top anticyclones move rapidly through a general vestigial progressive flow bias that is unrelentingly the entire Hemispheric character that won't apparently die without actually destroying the planet apparently .. eh hm... And that's a cold source at low levels (off-set by equinotical sun angles). After that, we probably add back, but by weight of numbers it would be slower and take more to get back to 9.9 if a return to that value could/would take place... That's extraordinarily large - that value right there, and even though CC and blah blah blah...that's really just so far over the top that's something else entirely driving that - obviously...  

Meantime, ORH is +10.3 on the NWS' climate interfacing ...and yes people want to quibble over decimal handling ...but the 10 in front of the "." negates your denial tactic so forget that noise. 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Since the comparison seems to be > than meaningless after all...  

Here's 2012 March, (  https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201203):  ... I did a spot look up on Hartford, CT for that month and they eye-popped a +9.6 above average monthly mean. 

March 2012 Temperature anomalies

Contrasting, as of 1/3 of the present 2020 March in the books, Hartford is averaging +9.9

Now... prognostics would argue we settle off this largely impressive departure as some of these over-top anticyclones move rapidly through a general vestigial progressive flow bias that is unrelentingly the entire Hemispheric character that won't apparently die without actually destroying the planet apparently .. after that, we probably add back, but by weight of numbers it would be slower and take more to get back to 9.9 if a return to that value could/would take place... That's extraordinarily large - that value right there, and even though CC and blah blah blah...that's really just so far over the top that's something else entirely driving that - obviously...  

Meantime, ORH is +10.3 on the NWS' climate interfacing ...and yes people want to quibble over decimal handling ...but the 10 in front of the "." negates your denial tactic so forget that noise. 

 

 

 

 

They laughed when we said #2. Sister of 2012. They aren’t laughing anymore. Or posting 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Since the comparison seems to be > than meaningless after all...  

Here's 2012 March, (  https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201203):  ... I did a spot look up on Hartford, CT for that month and they eye-popped a +9.6 above average monthly mean. 

March 2012 Temperature anomalies

Contrasting, as of 1/3 of the present 2020 March in the books, Hartford is averaging +9.9

Now... prognostics would argue we settle off this largely impressive departure as some of these over-top anticyclones move rapidly through a general vestigial progressive flow bias that is unrelentingly the entire Hemispheric character that won't apparently die without actually destroying the planet apparently .. eh hm... And that's a cold source at low levels (off-set by equinotical sun angles). After that, we probably add back, but by weight of numbers it would be slower and take more to get back to 9.9 if a return to that value could/would take place... That's extraordinarily large - that value right there, and even though CC and blah blah blah...that's really just so far over the top that's something else entirely driving that - obviously...  

Meantime, ORH is +10.3 on the NWS' climate interfacing ...and yes people want to quibble over decimal handling ...but the 10 in front of the "." negates your denial tactic so forget that noise. 

 

 

 

 

Impressive.

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They laughed when we said #2. Sister of 2012. They aren’t laughing anymore. Or posting 

When I look at my top 10 warmest March's, 2012 is on top of course but the next 4 aren't even 2002.  2010, 2000, 2016 and 1991 all come next.  This week has had a few warm days but things look more normal by this weekend.

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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

When I look at my top 10 warmest March's, 2012 is on top of course but the next 4 aren't even 2002.  2010, 2000, 2016 and 1991 all come next.  This week has had a few warm days but things look more normal by this weekend.

Sat look like 50ish. Sunday likely cooler than normal 40-45. Then retorch next week with 60’s near 70 middle/ end of week

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sat look like 50ish. Sunday likely cooler than normal 40-45. Then retorch next week with 60’s near 70 middle/ end of week

Good luck with hitting 50° at your place on Saturday.  My point is that every day is not going to be a massive departure like the past couple of days.  As it stands I'm currently at #7 so this month if we're counting our chickens on the 11th needs to go through a lot of cousins to reach sisterhood.

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Since the comparison seems to be > than meaningless after all...  

Here's 2012 March, (  https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201203):  ... I did a spot look up on Hartford, CT for that month and they eye-popped a +9.6 above average monthly mean. 

 

Contrasting, as of 1/3 of the present 2020 March in the books, Hartford is averaging +9.9

Now... prognostics would argue we settle off this largely impressive departure as some of these over-top anticyclones move rapidly through a general vestigial progressive flow bias that is unrelentingly the entire Hemispheric character that won't apparently die without actually destroying the planet apparently .. eh hm... And that's a cold source at low levels (off-set by equinotical sun angles). After that, we probably add back, but by weight of numbers it would be slower and take more to get back to 9.9 if a return to that value could/would take place... That's extraordinarily large - that value right there, and even though CC and blah blah blah...that's really just so far over the top that's something else entirely driving that - obviously...  

Meantime, ORH is +10.3 on the NWS' climate interfacing ...and yes people want to quibble over decimal handling ...but the 10 in front of the "." negates your denial tactic so forget that noise. 

I calculate something I call the Departure from Normal Index.  It's basically accumulation of the daily departures but it allows you to see how anomalous a month is.  The highest or lowest peaks are #1 or 2 in their respective months.  You can see that March 2012 was a standout.  It should be interesting to see how this month racks up when all is said and done.

DeparturefromNormalIndex.png

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17 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

I find the Midwest vibe you speak of a little surprising, but I guess it makes sense if it's flat and suitable for farming. Although the growing season at that latitude must be really short. 

N ME is fantastic for synoptic snowstorms and a nice long winter season owing to it's high latitude, but must not that good for orographic type snows like I get here without mountains. They can get snow and mix events there while we're torching into the 60s and 70s. 

The Champlain Valley here in VT is the only other place in New England that might have that Midwest vibe, but even there you still have the backdrop of the Green Mountains in the distance to the east.  

I'd call the eastern Aroostook terrain gently rolling rather than flat - flat is what I saw when the grandkids lived in DEC.  Once one gets 20 miles N and W from Baxter Park, the hills in NW Aroostook top out at about 2,000' and the general elevations outside the river valleys are 1,000+.  However, even those hills manufacture some snow.  In 1976-77 when I recorded atleast "T" for snow on 82 of 90 days in DJF, I think Rocky Mt - 10-12 miles NW from Allagash Village - had at least some accum on every day I was there checking the loggers, which I did about 3 days/week.  Probably 250"+ there that snow season, compared to the 186.7" I measured in Fort Kent.  A few years later (Dec 1983) I had a messy SN+ to RA to SN dump 12" on Dec 5-6 and the Rocky area had 18"+ of clingy SN that led to major windthrow losses.  Then the mod/hvy ZR on 15-16, which produced a 3" crust with 1.90" LE at home, brought 10-12" of SN/IP at 1,400' near Rocky Mt.  That was the winter when we couldn't do boundary maintenance because all the blazes were under the snow.

I've seen budding trees.

Male quaking aspen buds usually begin to swell in Feb, red maples a month later.  Those species seem about in line with the averages.  The geese did return to  Belgrade Stream near the bridge on Rt 27 on 3/9 compared to 3/20 last year.  The average lies between those 2 dates.

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