HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: Acatt already concerned with the upcoming 60's + Let me know the first two days in a row upcoming that I get to 60+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I enjoy the light in the evening, but hate how it delays models. the thought had occurred but then ... is it really gonna matter this time ? Might be a better therapy for all who regular this distraction if they didn't get to see the models at all for the next 6 months, too - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Monday afternoon / evening will be great. grillin and chillin. Warm temps and late sunlight. I would like a snowstorm but will enjoy a nice day Know what's personally musing about that ? About a week ago, I mentioned in passing words to the affect of, " ...at this point, I hope that big ridge in the Euro verifies, because I'd love to pile out of work into a 74 F afternoon on that Monday, with the extra hour of daylight" Oddly prophetic, perhaps ... and while 74 is a stretch, I would definitely remind folks that under a well mixed, tall boundary layer, amid a WSW dry-warm continental conveyor, with 700 mb RH < 50%, and 850 mb rudimentary adiabatic starting temp of +10 or +11 ...that's going to bust MOS cool... The GFS version of that MOS is only 60 at FIT, which might actually be atoned for it's progressive look with that flat wave coming out of the southern GL region... The Euro is west of Chi town withat wave-space during Monday afternoon, with the eastern end of the warm boundary not sagging with typical climo - so...has an air of anomaly in that respects and we'll see. But, the GFS is about 6 to 9 hour faster with that S/W and probably pollutes the works. I actually think this is a good test for the GFS ... ( Euro for that matter.., although the onus is on the GFS, because the Euro being inside of D4 ...it's probably closer to reality ). I've thought all along this season that the velocity/speed saturation, tending to stretch the flow ... serviced the GFS and made it's extended ranges look better than the foreign model types - which diametrically maintain the opposing tendency in the other direct ( meridian ). I just wonder if the GFS is going to start ablating warm ups all summer ( snark). Like it has difficulty seeing the longevity of heat, because it'll keep right on stretching the flow when there is less reason to actually do so ...thus, revealing that it was scoring better this last winter by faux skill (so to speak). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 7, 2020 Author Share Posted March 7, 2020 Ensembles are pretty mild through D10. we'll be in a precarious position for toughing though, beyond that timeframe too. On one hand we'll be on the east side or at times under a building ml ridge. Also it looks like the EPO will become more negative with time. On the other, teles seem to show a generally weakly to somewhat-pna, + to +++ ao and generally +nao. Still I'm thinking we end up with mostly solid positive departures for a while, despite Spring cutoff season and the typical (or maybe slightly less) bouts of misery mist/possible mountain snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 It may be 2012 by affectation, though - but that's of course subjective. Empirically it probably doesn't ...because 2012 was so obscene that by shear definition of scale and degree of that anomaly it must by convention be construed as exceptionally rare - to put it nicely... But, again... both years bear an 'affectation' of similarity: early snow, followed by unrelenting bad winter, ends in butt-bang above normal March. It doesn't matter so much - to me - what the exact empirical numbers are, in space, time and thermometer, as the 'behavior' is what is paramount. A latter aspect I think folks are evading some ... or maybe are not realizing - I dunno. The behavioral similarity does give a 'subjective appeal' of useful comparison in my mind. Because they are same in that dimension of perspective: early snow and cold, no winter after... bend over March. Not sure how that can be argued without lying - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Next storm to track Hour 210 on the euro 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Ensembles are pretty mild through D10. we'll be in a precarious position for toughing though, beyond that timeframe too. On one hand we'll be on the east side or at times under a building ml ridge. Also it looks like the EPO will become more negative with time. On the other, teles seem to show a generally weakly to somewhat-pna, + to +++ ao and generally +nao. Still I'm thinking we end up with mostly solid positive departures for a while, despite Spring cutoff season and the typical (or maybe slightly less) bouts of misery mist/possible mountain snows. Another dump into the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 There is that window towards the middle of the month with a bit of a press from Canada. After that we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Another dump into the west. It's interesting ...the models have been constructing that look in the general mean for days ... and typically, a -EPO collapses into a +PNAP and the cold is thus enabled to spread east and so forth... We are not getting the latter more typical large scale morphology from the models, though. It's like it's holding back - repetitively doing like you say... dumping west, without then modulating toward even a transient western mid latitude ridge.. But it really hasn't been exceptionally cold out there either. Active storminess ..perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 7, 2020 Author Share Posted March 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Another dump into the west. Ad infinitum it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Lots will be on Monday. Even here in hills grass is greening along road sides and certain species are budding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next storm to track Hour 210 on the euro It’s always 8-10 days away..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 7, 2020 Author Share Posted March 7, 2020 06z gfs D11-12 is sick wind profile, probably a good event in there for the MW or etc. Want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: 06z gfs D11-12 is sick wind profile, probably a good event in there for the MW or etc. Want For severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 7, 2020 Author Share Posted March 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For severe? watching and hoping others get exciting weather is all we have the next several weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 I don’t see how Morch doesn’t finish way AN. Endless beatings continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Snow retreating northward for the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: It’s always 8-10 days away..... At this point...8 to 10 months seems more appropriate wording. I'm ready for spring, and hoping next winter doesn't disappoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Snow retreating northward for the season... When are you thinking shut down this year? Early Napril? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When are you thinking shut down this year? Early Napril? You installing Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 How many dumps the trough wants to make in the west ? Its sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 I’m sure it will find a way to fail, but the EPS does kind of have an interesting look later next weekend and beyond for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m sure it will find a way to fail, but the EPS does kind of have an interesting look later next weekend and beyond for a few days. Beware the ides of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When are you thinking shut down this year? Early Napril? I think my yard will be toast in a week or less... the hill has feet of natural and many feet of snowmaking/sleet style. It certainly looks like an earlier melt out for sure but we’ll make scheduled closing day like always unless something real weird happens. Even in 2012 the snowmaking routes survived till the end. It takes a lot of warmth/energy to wipe it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 All the models are colder for the end of next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I don’t see how Morch doesn’t finish way AN. Endless beatings continue. Except you have had a decent winter...Old man Winters belt has missed you and slapped everyone south of you across the ass...and the marks are still there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Yeah so not sure it's believable...any -EPO I'd like to see some supportive hemispheric cast members. The MJO is out of sequence for that. The AO is demonstratively positive, and it overlaps the WPO and EPO's northern chunk of real-estate ... The MJO and AO have a pretty significant correlation, and the presently modeled +AO aspect is a good fit for the Phase 5 decay as it is - a scenario that is out of phase with a -WPO/-EPO ... That said, the wave spacing is in process of its seasonal change and the gradient is likely slackening ...and some of these tele start to slip correlation - it's awful early to expect that to save though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I think my yard will be toast in a week or less... the hill has feet of natural and many feet of snowmaking/sleet style. It certainly looks like an earlier melt out for sure but we’ll make scheduled closing day like always unless something real weird happens. Even in 2012 the snowmaking routes survived till the end. It takes a lot of warmth/energy to wipe it out. Even my local bump should make it until the end of March or even early April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Driving up to northern VT via 89 Thursday returning yesterday. I had been there on the same route 2 weeks earlier. Snow line advanced 50 miles north in that time...now just beyond Concord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Of course this is nothing . Only this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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