March 2020 disc/obs

[weatherwiz]

There are only two "s" words which should be mentioned moving forward...sun and severe 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I tend to agree. The landscape is coming alive around here. Greening up... bulbs popping up... buds on trees 

Must be the ocean climate because I have frozen ground this morning with no signs of budding. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

51 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Well hopefully we have a nice spring with not much misery mist.....if we get an awful spring that would just be a nut kick

CFS has a cool April for NewEng and that thing usually finds any excuse to torch.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Must be the ocean climate because I have frozen ground this morning with no signs of budding. 

No need to worry...we'll be budding and sprouting like a chia pet over the next few weeks. Greenery is coming 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

No need to worry...we'll be budding and sprouting like a chia pet over the next few weeks. Greenery is coming 

Manscape bro. Don’t let the bush crowd the space.

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than 2012. This will be #2

Or #3.
In our area 2010 was milder, by 0.98° at the Farmington co-op.  That co-op reached 83 in 2012 and only 66 in 2010, but also dropped to-2 in '12 and only to 11 two years earlier.  2010 had no afternoons cooler than 36 while 2012 had 5 days with max 32 or lower. I had 14.6" snow in 2012, only 0.6" in 2010.  That's my lowest for any of the snowy months (DJFM) in my 47 Maine winters.  Except for the impact on the loggers, I'd take another sunny and warm 2012 long before repeating cloudy and wet 2010.

[MJO812]

Epo goes negative on the eps next week. Top late.

[weatherwiz]

Looking at latest global SSTA data and quite a few things pop to mind:

1) Are we headed back to a -PDO regime already? If so, the latest positive phase may be one of the shortest since the late 1950's. 

1a) Still with the PDO, the configuration of the Pacific combined with the bursts of MJO activity this winter, and QBO makes you wonder if we will see a strong La Nina develop moving through the next 12-18 months. 

1b) Tying into ENSO and La Nina potential, but will have to watch the WHWP over the course of the summer and how it migrates across the Pacific relative to climo...if migration is not as far east as it should be this could vastly increase the likelihood of La Nina and also influence tropical forcing.

2) AMO still positive...I remember back like 10 years ago my guess was we would see the AMO perhaps start the descent towards negative territory around the start of this decade...but historically we may still have another 15+ years of +AMO to deal with (actually look like the positive phase dominates for as much as 40 years with negative phase closer to 30)

3) I wonder how quickly SST's recover/warm in the Gulf of Mexico but they're relatively cool now (thanks to all those strong fronts). Not really connecting this for tropical season, but severe season. There is research which shows some correlation to SSTA's in the GoM and spring severe...and it makes sense that there would be. for example, in the historic season of 2011 SSTA's in the GoM were quite positive due to the lack of FROPA's into the GoM

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Or #3.
In our area 2010 was milder, by 0.98° at the Farmington co-op.  That co-op reached 83 in 2012 and only 66 in 2010, but also dropped to-2 in '12 and only to 11 two years earlier.  2010 had no afternoons cooler than 36 while 2012 had 5 days with max 32 or lower. I had 14.6" snow in 2012, only 0.6" in 2010.  That's my lowest for any of the snowy months (DJFM) in my 47 Maine winters.  Except for the impact on the loggers, I'd take another sunny and warm 2012 long before repeating cloudy and wet 2010.

March 1946 is actually warmer for most of SNE east of the CT River than 2012 was as hard as that is to believe. ORH also had 1945 warmer.

But all of that is a moot point. We're not going +10 this month...anyone who thought we were getting close to that kind of month was wishcasting or just doesn't know climo very well.

 

I could see something like 2016 happening...that was a +5 or +6 March...that would sneak us into a top 15 ranking.

[OSUmetstud]

Random question. Are there any papers addressing NORLUN? It seems like it was just an operational discovery more than anything. 

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Random question. Are there any papers addressing NORLUN? It seems like it was just an operational discovery more than anything. 

Perhaps something like this?

http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Perhaps something like this?

http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf

Yeah that's decent, I guess there's really nothing published though? 

[CapturedNature]

39 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Or #3.
In our area 2010 was milder, by 0.98° at the Farmington co-op.  That co-op reached 83 in 2012 and only 66 in 2010, but also dropped to-2 in '12 and only to 11 two years earlier.  2010 had no afternoons cooler than 36 while 2012 had 5 days with max 32 or lower. I had 14.6" snow in 2012, only 0.6" in 2010.  That's my lowest for any of the snowy months (DJFM) in my 47 Maine winters.  Except for the impact on the loggers, I'd take another sunny and warm 2012 long before repeating cloudy and wet 2010.

Yeah, It's either #3 or 4 for me.  I know some are just going off of snow but temperatures haven't been that warm and we can't ignore that period in early December.  It was a solid few weeks.  Special mention certainly goes the fact that we had little snow between 12/21 and 2/29 but if I recalled correctly, 1989 had about the same but we can't cherry pick which periods count and which ones do not.  For those that do, I wonder if they are including snow after the said they were "out" in their seasonal records?

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah that's decent, I guess there's really nothing published though? 

There has to be other published papers. I had that one saved on my pc.

[dendrite]

There’s something else out there, but I’m on mobile and can’t find it. I don’t believe it’s an officially published paper though...just research done from the old NH office. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

March 1946 is actually warmer for most of SNE east of the CT River than 2012 was as hard as that is to believe. ORH also had 1945 warmer.

But all of that is a moot point. We're not going +10 this month...anyone who thought we were getting close to that kind of month was wishcasting or just doesn't know climo very well.

I could see something like 2016 happening...that was a +5 or +6 March...that would sneak us into a top 15 ranking.

45 and 46 fit between 2010 and 12 at Farmington co-op.  Top 6 (and only ones 36°+) at the co-op:

1903   37.61  (Includes 79° on the 20th, only top 5 warm day not in 2012.)
1902   37.44
2010   37.24
1945   37.16
1946   36.71
2012   36.26

Worth noting that the co-op site was in the most developed parts of town 1893 thru mid-1966, then was moved about 1.5 miles north to a more rural location.  Farmington's UHI impact must be tiny, but the numbers indicate it's there.  One example:  Of the co-op's 14 triple digit highs, only Hot Saturday in 1975 came at the current site.

March 2010 at my place maxed out at 80 with a low of -10.  That 90° span is tops for any month I've recorded anywhere, going back to NNJ. Closest is Jan. 1979 in Fort Kent with 40/-47.

[ORH_wxman]

On 2/28/2020 at 8:02 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Here may be a couple windows for accumulating snow...first is like 3/6-3/8 and then if that high from central Canada presses down could be another from like 3/10-3/12. 

They aren’t great setups as it looks now but better than anything else recently. 

Well looks like the 3/6-3/8 window is going to fail, but the threat definitely was there.

3/11-3/12 is still there...that's next up on the docket to fail. The potential of 3/11-12 isn't as high as 3/6-7 was though.

[Typhoon Tip]

As a stand-alone source... the American -based teleconnectors are exceptionally warm for mid/late month. I'm now wondering if a 2012 competition is in the works - goodness..  

Two schools, ...well, three really:

one ... we are already past the first week, so to get a competition, I'm not sure where we stand and if that's even doable over the next three weeks

two ... by shear definition of rareness, ...2012 should not be redux/reproducible for many years.  8 may not be long enough... 

three ... CC ...yup. Bingo.. it's plausible that we can overcome that 2nd point; as in, maybe it's not as rare as we may think. Like it has simply not taken place yet, and we are in a new regime that allows for that kind of absurdity more frequently than we may be aware, simply from lack of verified exposure.  

The reality is probably somewhere between all three of those philosphies. 

I realize someone's posted about the EPO that looks neggie but I don't think it's "really" negative. What I'm seeing is such a demonstratively and massively negative PNA that physical R-wave balancing forces the EPO faux negative. It won't be the same beast as that which loads the Canadian shield ... if that's the case.  

I also advertized yesterday that I thought we still had chances for cut-off blue bomb in an overall above normal pattern.  I'm not even sure I still want to back that assertion this day looking at this stuff.  

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well looks like the 3/6-3/8 window is going to fail, but the threat definitely was there.

3/11-3/12 is still there...that's next up on the docket to fail. The potential of 3/11-12 isn't as high as 3/6-7 was though.

All these failed events are maddening. Thankfully convective season is approaching and we won't have to do with fail as much 

[Torch Tiger]

Maybe a minor snow/mix event and a few cool shots, in an ocean of warmth. that's what we are looking at. Take

[NorEastermass128]

With nothing really on the horizon, looks kind we finish with <20” here. Currently sitting at 17.8” on the season. 
 

I’d easily rank this one with the ratters of 01-02 and 11-12. May even be worse with zero events breaking our way.

Nothing beats the DC winter I experienced in 16-17 though.  Finished with 1” of sleet and a trace of snow for the entire season that came in March. Terrible. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

With nothing really on the horizon, looks kind we finish with <20” here. Currently sitting at 17.8” on the season. 
 

I’d easily rank this one with the ratters of 01-02 and 11-12. May even be worse with zero events breaking our way.

Nothing beats the DC winter I experienced in 16-17 though.  Finished with 1” of sleet and a trace of snow for the entire season that came in March. Terrible. 

There’s been no legit windows or opp since mid Jan.There hasnt been anything over the last days with a chance unless one was hanging onto a hope . And there’s certainly zero chance rest of month. Glad to see everyone finally moving on 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s been no legit windows or opp since mid Jan.There hasnt been anything over the last days with a chance unless one was hanging onto a hope . And there’s certainly zero chance rest of month. Glad to see everyone finally moving on 

Agreed. We move on.  Better luck next year. 

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

All these failed events are maddening. Thankfully convective season is approaching and we won't have to do with fail as much 

Models have been atrocious this winter

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Agreed. We move on.  Better luck next year. 

Even though it was largely tossed.. the 1981analog worked out almost perfectly.

[CoastalWx]

11-12 was worse for snow by the numbers. However we knew early on it would suck. This winter kicked us directly in the balls after the early December snows. I mean flat out Chun-Li Street fighter2 style. That’s what hurts. We all had enthusiasm for the winter, from the December snow. Fail. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Even though it was largely tossed.. the 1981analog worked out almost perfectly.

? 

[MJO812]

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Where is the link to the thread?  There is more to talk about so than this thread...

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

? 

Ginx mentioned it way back in Jan and was tossed on here. It was close.