CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully the long range gefs is right and we get snow. Please god. I don't even look at the GEFS anymore. They are irrelevant. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here may be a couple windows for accumulating snow...first is like 3/6-3/8 and then if that high from central Canada presses down could be another from like 3/10-3/12. They aren’t great setups as it looks now but better than anything else recently. Looks like a split flow wants to try and develop around that time-range...actually even looks tad omega block-ish like too. At least with this there wouldn't be a SE ridge to deal with. Shift the ridge axis a bit west and that could favor something to really amplify should something dig into the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 This winter has been most remarkable in its lack of cold air. Numerous significant “cold” fronts immediately followed by AN temps. This morning I was shocked to see the car therm read 28F at 6a.m. in late February after ~12 hrs of gusty northwesterly winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Just now, jbenedet said: This winter has been most remarkable in its lack of cold air. Numerous significant “cold” fronts immediately followed by AN temps. This morning I was shocked to see the car therm read 28F at 6a.m. in late February after ~12 hrs of gusty northwesterly winds. Hadley cell will getcha every time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: This winter has been most remarkable in its lack of cold air. Numerous significant “cold” fronts immediately followed by AN temps. This morning I was shocked to see the car therm read 28F at 6a.m. in late February after ~12 hrs of gusty northwesterly winds. I had this same exact thought when looking at the end of next week. That's a pretty decent system/front looking to move through late week but our temperatures go from quite a bit above-average to right around average or even a few ticks above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Hadley cell will getcha every time. I got Hadley celled in the 2018 and 2019 winters. This year it's been to my benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hadley cell will getcha every time. Interesting. Can you elaborate on that with the context of this winter ? Or @OSUmetstud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here may be a couple windows for accumulating snow...first is like 3/6-3/8 and then if that high from central Canada presses down could be another from like 3/10-3/12. They aren’t great setups as it looks now but better than anything else recently. I know we are getting the hyperbole “sell” “not happening” etc etc... but I think there is a small window to sneak something in... the Canadian kind of illustrates this with the system that brushes the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 It's a joke predicated on Typhoon Tip's posts about Hadley Cell expansion that will gobble us all up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I know we are getting the hyperbole “sell” “not happening” etc etc... but I think there is a small window to sneak something in... the Canadian kind of illustrates this with the system that brushes the cape. Any model at any given time will have a "window." The pattern overall doesn't look promising. It's going to take a thread the needle event I think. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 The ao did fall below 2 @weatherwiz. The models predicted that correctly. Doesn't mean it will snow though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Any model at any given time will have a "window." The pattern overall doesn't look promising. It's going to take a thread the needle event I think. Good luck. Yeah... it’s low probability... but not impossible. I don’t think anyone is getting all gassed up or anything about it. Just a period maybe to keep an eye on as we move into next week. Expect nothing, be pleasantly surprised if something changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: The ao did fall below 2 @weatherwiz. The models predicted that correctly. Doesn't mean it will snow though. nice. Do you know what the daily values where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... it’s low probability... but not impossible. I don’t think anyone is getting all gassed up or anything about it. Just a period maybe to keep an eye on as we move into next week. Expect nothing, be pleasantly surprised if something changes. You can never shut the door on March, agree. It's just the same ole crap on the EPS. I was hoping we'd get some classic March buckling of the flow..but no sign of that quite yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a joke predicated on Typhoon Tip's posts about Hadley Cell expansion that will gobble us all up. Ah never was on the inside of that joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 That threat on the 13th on the 6z gfs is the ultimate winter 19-20 slap in the face. It snows half way to effing Bermuda but we can barely managed to get scraped by the NW edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Any model at any given time will have a "window." The pattern overall doesn't look promising. It's going to take a thread the needle event I think. Good luck. We get a decent rockies ridge spike around 3/6-3/7....so that would be when we can sneak a coastal in....if that mini-EPO dump around 3/10 gets far enough south, then there would be another window for an overrunning or SWFE around 3/11ish. It's all occurring in a fairly ugly hemispheric pattern, so gotta keep it relative....but if we're trying to identify any windows where snow could happen, I'd pick those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 All windows are locked and shut. None have a chance at opening. Do not hold onto false hope 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Warm Kevin is my favorite. I used to like waking up in the morning and running to my computer to reads Kevin warm posts during the warm season...was the best part of the day. I would do that before anything else and then I would feel all warm and fuzzy inside and walk around the rest of the day with a big smile on my face. You need help if that made your day lol...holy smokes. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: nice. Do you know what the daily values where? Well it looks like down to 1.8 or 1.9 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Well it looks like down to 1.8 or 1.9 currently. I wonder if it will go below the dip from a few weeks ago. But it does look like the entire structure of the AO is beginning to break down (perhaps more related to the transition towards spring?). I know the AO loses correlation as we move through the spring, but should we continue seeing such high anomalies it will continue holding at least some weight on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 it's a winter forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I wonder if it will go below the dip from a few weeks ago. But it does look like the entire structure of the AO is beginning to break down (perhaps more related to the transition towards spring?). I know the AO loses correlation as we move through the spring, but should we continue seeing such high anomalies it will continue holding at least some weight on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: it's a winter forum 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 I'm just amazed at the AO this winter. 1) How quickly the AO just jumped into positive territory and never looked back 2) How many times it peaked at +4SD 3) For this entire month each drop in the AO was less impressive then the previous drop. This stretch will end that. But that forecast drop in a few weeks looks close to the period Will is talking about too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We get a decent rockies ridge spike around 3/6-3/7....so that would be when we can sneak a coastal in....if that mini-EPO dump around 3/10 gets far enough south, then there would be another window for an overrunning or SWFE around 3/11ish. It's all occurring in a fairly ugly hemispheric pattern, so gotta keep it relative....but if we're trying to identify any windows where snow could happen, I'd pick those two. That’s pretty much the only possibilities at this time. But even that spike is sort of transient at 3/6. I wish we could shake this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: That’s pretty much the only possibilities at this time. But even that spike is sort of transient at 3/6. I wish we could shake this up. Flow is fast too during that little spike in ridging....so it would be hard to amplify something. The 3/10 window actually might be a bit easier....Euro is slightly too far north with the setup but the GEFS are way south....so a 70/30 compromise toward EPS might work actually. But at that point we're talking over 10 days out too...so who knows what it will look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Models are starting to show a coastal even though they are ots with it. From the sounds of it, there are several possible wintry/cold/snow events upcoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... it’s low probability... but not impossible. I don’t think anyone is getting all gassed up or anything about it. Just a period maybe to keep an eye on as we move into next week. Expect nothing, be pleasantly surprised if something changes. Yup. It’s what some of the level minded folks have been saying all along. Point is, it’s not nude car washing fert applying full spring mode yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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