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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Monday could be a legit top 10 day. Keep flow more WSW and we could see mid-to-upper 60's.

Yup...I've been monitoring that...  It's an epic journey through bundom to do so...but I'm often interested in tracking those first warm fair days in spring; I mean, they happen so rarely they may as well be considered freak events and thus have their place in the annuls   :axe:

Of course... having it be 70+ last January...and 80+ in Febs and March's several times over the last 6 years, the novelty of that is wearing off too -

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup...I've been monitoring that...  It's an epic journey through bundom to do so...but I'm also interested in tracked warm fair days in spring; I mean, they happen so rarely they may as well be considered freak events and thus have their place in the annuls   :axe:

I actually have a quite a bit of interest in tracking them too. I know it's not very exciting but forecasting temperatures in the spring (especially around here) requires a bit of skill at times and it's not very easy. I think one of the most interesting drivers is soil moisture/leafing out and the influences they can have.

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I actually have a quite a bit of interest in tracking them too. I know it's not very exciting but forecasting temperatures in the spring (especially around here) requires a bit of skill at times and it's not very easy. I think one of the most interesting drivers is soil moisture/leafing out and the influences they can have.

Could be...  MOS guidance may or may not have that kind of discrete science built into their algorithms.   Obviously, we know they are heavily climo weighted as they get out in time ... 4, 6 and 7 days out, so it would probably be hard to know if the super-adiabatic overturning/tall BL is being modulated/hidden out by the database averages.  

Also, considering the averages ...those may or may not contain the "hockey stick" aspects of recent climate change.  Ever since the 1990s really, the MOS would routinely under-assess the high temperatures on sunny well mixed days while in the absence of CAA, anyway, and one should wonder if the last 10 years make that worse.  Those rotted polar air mass and/or westerly continental conveyors with low RH will drive a 61, D7 MOS to 72 every time because of climo weight, but even in the near term ...like the next day, there's still almost a guaranteed 1 to 3 tick bust. 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At Unity College. Came from Husson. Was on 202 west. I can guarantee Dixmont does well based on the topography and orientation . Gotta be a weenie spot 

They're a lot of weenie spots up here, Newport is another good one.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think they may have over-corrected BOS. I feel like it's been like 1-2f too cold at times. Ugh.

They need 18 months of cool bias to erase all the fake warm readings in the climo record. :lol:

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