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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

You guys that have issues with others having issues should break off a thread for this threat if you feel its warranted.

i have an issue with you taking issue that others are having issues. 

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People are the same everywhere on the planet - regardless of race, creed, ethnicity of shade

We're just dogs.

 - conceit too oft gets in the way of that truism, but the beauty of truisms is that they are true ...whether people want to believe them or not. 

 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I think all of that has finally drained from my blood lol. I can barely drink a single beer anymore. I'll drink one during a Bruins game and most times don't even finish it lol

Those scuba tanks get warm quick when your nursing them.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think all of that has finally drained from my blood lol. I can barely drink a single beer anymore. I'll drink one during a Bruins game and most times don't even finish it lol

Maybe you should start bulking up so you don't snap in half like a wafer when the next breeze from an outflow boundary hits

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Maybe you should start bulking up so you don't snap in half like a wafer when the next breeze from an outflow boundary hits

Trust me...wish I could lol. Before I started driving and I would walk everywhere I HATED this time of year. the wind would add like 10 minutes to my walks b/c I could barely move if I was walking into the wind 

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The GEF's -based teleconnectors do not support any operational model that suggests cold and snow, at any point, over the next two weeks. 

The operational run is some-odd, 0 for 20 average in modeling winter storms between D5 and 10 over the last eight weeks, at the same time it's ensemble mean has signaled a favorable pattern 0 % of that time.  Pretty strong argument for sidling with the ens mean and not even using the operational.  But it begs the question ...why?   It really is that starkly coherent:  ensemble mean implies 0 chance... operational has modeled 120 inches with 0 success.     

I find that fascinating in a nerdly sort of sense of it, for operational usage of the GFS.  I am not sure what the other model's ensemble derivatives have been like ...GGEM, UKMET or Euro, when comparing to their own teleconnectors, but... regardless, they are at minimum guilty of 0 realization... How do we know...? Because 0 has happened, that's how. So, unless they have carried along the last eight weeks with 0 chances - which they have not - they aren't doing much better. 

Here's the aspect that's interesting... The individual ensemble members of the GFS, which I do upon occasion glance over them ... have signaled substantial cyclones and events over eastern N/A ... yet en masse, they must be canceling one another out to end up with neutral or nominal threat ... because the pegged neggie PNA and pegged positive NAO, with whopper positive AO the whole way mind us...plus, WPO-EPO arc completely torpid of any signal at all...the whole way, doesn't actually imply any given one of the members should ever be signaling anything.  It's really like GEFs mean is "accidentally" painting a tele's spread that has verified remarkably well, while being individual piece of shit.   weird. - 

Well, anyway... my guess is that any 202 hour GFS cut off upper MA/SNE juggernaut is going to be hard to surmise without that erstwhile crushing bias in mind.  Be that as it may, if the flow remains relaxed ... it is unfortunately a stand alone/sort of non-trend determinant entity.  This one over the next 60 hours ( btw..) still deals with velocity contamination, despite rolling eyes and the fact that it's just a little less velocty - still too much... I'm talking about 'as is' in modeling trends.  We'll see if it does a Boxing Day deal ... 

 

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