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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well...there are discussions of a dominant central US ridge this summer with troughiness in the NE. 

Wouldn't be a bad setup for us...been a while since we had a really food ring-of-fire setup. Or perhaps we can get some cold pool aloft setups like 2008. But speaking of 2008 I feel like a pattern like that is exceptionally difficult to obtain, especially for a long-duration. We legit had severe wx like every day in June and July lol. We do get cold pool setups every summer but that summer was insane. 

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Those of us close enough to getting a couple inches care, a shift here or there could put some folks in SE Mass in the game 

Dude it’s over. You’d probably not even be snow. If it is snow probably not accumulating. 

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The 12z NAM improved tremendously at H5 compared to previous runs.  I would not pay attention to the surface until the pattern at H5 is resolved, that could be until 12 hours away.  I was told by someone wise one day that the surface is the hardest area for the models to see, go with the H5 level until that is resolved, the surface will be what it is, it just doesn't make sense to be that far southeast with at least a partial phase ongoing as the northern stream continues to dive to the south and southeast more and more each run.  The 18z 3 KM NAM had the clipper and northern stream energy as far northeast as Upstate NY, now it is diving across southwest MI.

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