March 2020 disc/obs

[Lava Rock]

already 45F.

[weatherwiz]

Should actually see a decent little line move through later this evening. Don't think we'll see severe gusts but perhaps 30-40 mph. If enough elevated instability can develop maybe some small hail or grauple mixed in. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Glad this is going to miss. Have been on to Spring for a month plus.

[CoastalWx]

if you think about it, nothing since early December has gone right. That is remarkable.

[Typhoon Tip]

Post Feb 15 ...certainly so post March 1 begins the time of year where the MOS will probably bust cool by a one to three ticks on days like this. 

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

if you think about it, nothing since early December has gone right. That is remarkable.

I'd say probably the 16th-17th storm that month was the jumping point for winter going wrong 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

if you think about it, nothing since early December has gone right. That is remarkable.

This in itself is pretty impressive that not one storm system bucked the trend.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

if you think about it, nothing since early December has gone right. That is remarkable.

Persistence forecasting. A real phenomenon unfortunately. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Writing was om the wall yesterday, despite some remaining enthralled by ensemble erotica.

Was surprised to see some FB posts mentioning a snowstorm. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Persistence forecasting. A real phenomenon unfortunately. 

Was surprised to see some FB posts mentioning a snowstorm. 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

if you think about it, nothing since early December has gone right. That is remarkable.

Yup... Harvey Leonard bemoaned that same point to me in an email last week ... paraphrasing to a close approximation: 

I've never seen a winter like this for combining warmth specifically with lack of even "close calls" or even "near misses" since mid December.   ( I just looked again and it's pretty much spot on..) 

So yeah, I'd call that a spot on echo to your own observations ...and one that I happen to agree with in both renditions.  Heh.  Ugh.   I mean, it's one thing to deal with a ratter, but this one was transcendence of something far worse in terms of unlikeliness actually taking place .. all the time.   

Having said that... you know I was thinking... There really is less difference between this year in 2011-2012 from a step back larger perspective. I mean, we can get into whether detailed departures and what not match or serve as analog but they won't really - I mean from a 'gestalt' look.  Both years had an early snow, and then nadda - period.  With one exception: 2011-2012 may have actually had more 'near misses'... This event, however, that is likely to foist just too far east, qualifies as a near miss - it's kind of a separate rub that it would be interesting if not morbidly fantastic, to actually witness this season exit this way; yet we cannot even get that much to succeed.  Hell really discovers its new dimensions -

A bottom line, brass-taxes sort of comparative analysis begs the similarity.  Whether we put down a big snow event on October 31st or Dec 2nd ...that's irrelevant in nature? Both are early, both never saw shit until the following year.  I mean obviously we have March to get through and even thru Easter is fair at our latitude ( as difficult as the latter may seem to even visualize in this unrelenting abuse) but, I opined/bemused in spring of 2015 that with 150 to 300% of the annual snow achieved, we could go four years in a row under-achieving and still end up above normal for the 5 year mean.

You and others have also opined, we are 'due' ( a statistical term I actually hate but that 'sides the point ) for a ratter.. The problem I have with the due -argument is that it's like comparing Ali to Tyson.. Two disparate techniques spanning entirely different cultures of the sport? It makes any comparison dubious. Only using that metaphorically here, the climate of 1955 through 1985 ... was changing, moreover, that change has been 'accelerating' since 1985... so, if 'due' is based on a background climate signal, that signal should by logic be increasingly entropic and therefore, less reliable. So there cannot be any 'due' ... I guess what I'm backing us into here is that we just simply got absolutely butt-banged period... And, seeing as the climate change shit is trying to move Philly to our doorstep faster than most admit ..anyway, that's not helping. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM has a pretty healthy inverted trough 

[NSwx]

12z Nam is so far East I’m not sure we even see high cirrus here in NS.. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Was surprised to see some FB posts mentioning a snowstorm. 

Accuweather had a big headline on msn about the northeast breaking the snow drought with a huge coastal lol. Never fails. We usually disagree on such topics but I agree with you here that this deserved zero headlines. 

[512high]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup... Harvey Leonard bemoaned that same point to me in an email last week ... paraphrasing to a close approximation: 

I've never seen a winter like this for combining warmth specifically with lack of even "close calls" or even "near misses" since mid December.   ( I just looked again and it's pretty much spot on..) 

So yeah, I'd call that a spot on echo to your own observations ...and one that I happen to agree with in both renditions.  Heh.  Ugh.   I mean, it's one thing to deal with a ratter, but this one was transcendence of something far worse in terms of unlikeliness actually taking place .. all the time.   

Having said that... you know I was thinking... There really is no difference between this year in 2011-2012 from a step back larger perspective. I mean, we can get into whether detailed departures and what not match or serve as analog but they won't really - I mean from a 'gestalt' look.  Both years had an early snow, and then nadda - period.  

A bottom line, brass-taxes sort of comparative analysis begs the similarity.  Whether we put down a big snow event on October 31st or Dec 2nd ...that's irrelevant in nature? Both are early, both never saw shit until the following year.  I mean obviously we have March to get through and even thru Easter is fair at our latitude ( as difficult as the latter may seem to even visualize in this unrelenting abuse) but, I opined/bemused in spring of 2015 that with 150 to 300% of the annual snow achieved, we could go four years in a row under-achieving and still end up above normal for the 5 year mean.

You and others have also opined, we are 'due' ( a statistical term I actually hate but that 'sides the point ) for a ratter.. The problem I have with the due -argument is that it's like comparing Ali to Tyson.. Two disparate techniques spanning entirely different cultures of the sport? It makes any comparison dubious. Only using that metaphorically here, the climate of 1955 through 1985 ... was changing, moreover, that change has been 'accelerating' since 1985... so, if 'due' is based on a background climate signal, that signal should by logic be increasingly entropic and therefore, less reliable. So there cannot be any 'due' ... I guess what I'm backing us into here is that we just simply got absolutely butt-banged period... And, seeing as the climate change shit is trying to move Philly to our doorstep faster than most admit ..anyway, that's not helping. 

Interesting, but where you say philly climate to our doorstep...temporary? For when next Winter arrives back to some what normalcy and hopefully no more fast flow shit where something can at least phase into something, i wonder what our summer will beike after this shit show.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NAM has a pretty healthy inverted trough 

It's going to be a possibility if we keep this look at H5 which seemingly hasn't changed in 48 hours...you can't track a deep trough underneath without that occurring somewhere north and northwest of it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NAM has a pretty healthy inverted trough 

If it happens overnight, we could grab a couple. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup... Harvey Leonard bemoaned that same point to me in an email last week ... paraphrasing to a close approximation: 

I've never seen a winter like this for combining warmth specifically with lack of even "close calls" or even "near misses" since mid December.   ( I just looked again and it's pretty much spot on..) 

So yeah, I'd call that a spot on echo to your own observations ...and one that I happen to agree with in both renditions.  Heh.  Ugh.   I mean, it's one thing to deal with a ratter, but this one was transcendence of something far worse in terms of unlikeliness actually taking place .. all the time.   

Having said that... you know I was thinking... There really is less difference between this year in 2011-2012 from a step back larger perspective. I mean, we can get into whether detailed departures and what not match or serve as analog but they won't really - I mean from a 'gestalt' look.  Both years had an early snow, and then nadda - period.  With one exception: 2011-2012 may have actually had more 'near misses'... This event, however, that is likely to foist just too far east, qualifies as a near miss - it's kind of a separate rub that it would be interesting if not morbidly fantastic, to actually witness this season exit this way; yet we cannot even get that much to succeed.  Hell really discovers its new dimensions -

A bottom line, brass-taxes sort of comparative analysis begs the similarity.  Whether we put down a big snow event on October 31st or Dec 2nd ...that's irrelevant in nature? Both are early, both never saw shit until the following year.  I mean obviously we have March to get through and even thru Easter is fair at our latitude ( as difficult as the latter may seem to even visualize in this unrelenting abuse) but, I opined/bemused in spring of 2015 that with 150 to 300% of the annual snow achieved, we could go four years in a row under-achieving and still end up above normal for the 5 year mean.

You and others have also opined, we are 'due' ( a statistical term I actually hate but that 'sides the point ) for a ratter.. The problem I have with the due -argument is that it's like comparing Ali to Tyson.. Two disparate techniques spanning entirely different cultures of the sport? It makes any comparison dubious. Only using that metaphorically here, the climate of 1955 through 1985 ... was changing, moreover, that change has been 'accelerating' since 1985... so, if 'due' is based on a background climate signal, that signal should by logic be increasingly entropic and therefore, less reliable. So there cannot be any 'due' ... I guess what I'm backing us into here is that we just simply got absolutely butt-banged period... And, seeing as the climate change shit is trying to move Philly to our doorstep faster than most admit ..anyway, that's not helping. 

Ratter 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Accuweather had a big headline on msn about the northeast breaking the snow drought with a huge coastal lol. Never fails. We usually disagree on such topics but I agree with you that this deserved zero headlines. 

I agree with this. In fact, this can be said about many potential weather events. I've been doing alot of thinking about this lately...and this stems from discussions had in class, listening to what people have to say about weather forecasts/information, and just surfing through social media. 

We see alot of talk (here included) where the models are always to blame...despite what statistics indicate. But is the problem within the models or how information regarding weather is being presented? I think it's the latter and I think it's actually a huge problem and it's leading to people just losing faith/confidence in weather forecasting. 

It's one thing to have discussions "internally" but there is just so much information thrown around on social media that the general public just doesn't need to know or see...and it's b/c they just don't know how to interpret it (which is not their fault). 

There is so much information posted which is geared towards the "only if" "or what if" category and this provides absolutely zero value to the public and creates more harm than good. The general public doesn't care that 8 out of 51 EPS members show a massive storm 7-days out. What's even the point is posting this information (for the public to see)? I understand there is the idea of providing lead time and there is that whole idea of "I want to be the first one to mention it" but it's not done correctly IMO and that is evident by the public's reaction to this material. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, 512high said:

Interesting, but where you say philly climate to our doorstep...temporary? For when next Winter arrives back to some what normalcy and hopefully no more fast flow shit where something can at least phase into something, i wonder what our summer will beike after this shit show.

Why would that be temporary - 

think about what is going on with the world, get a grip with what that means and where logic leads ...check back in with the answer to that S.A.T. question. 

I mean, it's a matter of time ...but it's coming.  Look, it won't be a smooth curved transition - no.  We'll probably have several cold snowy years...and/or at min, intra period spells, but over the long term mean we'll see gradual reduction in the occurrences of said cold and snow; that is concomitant with a warming climate moving winters ever north.

Having said that, this does not account for ... comet impacts, or some super terrestrial thing by sun, orbit, comet or asteroid ...etc...etc... if the present influences remains unchecked, 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Oh no...down the rabbit hole again.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh no...down the rabbit hole again.

No rabbit hole

Only nimrods and toe-lining malcontents

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why would that be temporary - 

think about what is going on with the world, get a grip with what that means and where logic leads ...check back in with the answer to that S.A.T. question. 

I mean, it's a matter of time ...but it's coming.  Look, it won't be a smooth curved transition - no.  We'll probably have several cold snowy juggernaut years...and/or intra period spells, but over the long term mean we'll see gradually reduction in the occurrences of said cold and snow; that is concomitant with a warming climate moving winter north.

Having said that, this does not account for ... comet impacts, or some super terrestrial thing by sun, orbit, comet or asteroid ...etc...etc... if the present influences remains unchecked, 

Your bud ..Harvey world violently disagree with you like most Mets on this forum.... if I got your stance right (Philadelphia  climo is new normal for Boston )

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Your bud ..Harvey world violently disagree with you like most Mets on this forum.... if I got your stance right (Philadelphia  climo is new normal for Boston )

You're angry ..so you didn't read objectively - 

that is not what I said...  "climate change shit is trying to move Philly to our doorstep faster than most admit ."  is an opine and not a statement of claim to a 'new norm'.. 

If other Mets violently disagree with climate change, they should be stripped of their credentials.  And that man told me he agrees the winter seems like a climate move north and got the tongue-in-cheek reference to Philly for it's conferred value without having that be some means to abase the implication - admitting climate change is really what that's about when people do that. That's not him.  Knee jerk reacting in a way that protects the what folks don't want to lose - and it makes me want to jam an inferno down people's f'n throats. 

 

[WinterWolf]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

if you think about it, nothing since early December has gone right. That is remarkable.

Totally correct....the Definition of a True Ratter right there.    

[ORH_wxman]

Climate change is definitely happening, but I'd never attribute a winter like this to it....ok, maybe a small percentage (I dunno, 10%?).....the rest is year to year variance. It dwarfs the CC signal....that is empirically not arguable.

I'm not talking butterfly effect either...using that, you can attribute climate change to any event you want, because technically everything is "connected"....you can do the same for someone passing gas in their basement.

 

I'm speaking solely "net effect".....CC may have caused a torch, but it also may have caused the 27" blizzard in March 2018.....the net effect is what matters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Was surprised to see some FB posts mentioning a snowstorm. 

I mentioned the possibility of some snow....which still looks possible, but nothing major.

[TheBudMan]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Staying in Bangor tonight and downtown Portland tomorrow night. I figured it was mainly bare Or will be after today , all up along 95 to Bangor , so that confirms that . I hope to see some near Skow

 

Kevin I know I am late to this but get some Swish or Substance if you've never had Bissell Brothers before.   Awesome beer ! 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're angry ..so you didn't read objectively - 

that is not what I said...  "climate change shit is trying to move Philly to our doorstep faster than most admit ."  is an opine and not a statement of claim to a 'new norm'.. 

If other Mets violently disagree with climate change, they should be stripped of their credentials.  And that man told me he agrees the winter seems like a climate move north and got the tongue-in-cheek reference to Philly for it's conferred value without having that be some means to abase the implication - admitting climate change is really what that's about when people do that. That's not him.  Knee jerk reacting in a way that protects the what folks don't want to lose - and it makes me want to jam an inferno down people's f'n throats. 

 

lol not angry just thought the statement was asinine and way too general and broad to have the D.Bag  aura of “study that and get back to me on that S.A.T “ question 

Perhaps I’m wrong ...moving on

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned the possibility of some snow....which still looks possible, but nothing major.

Yeah I would keep snow in the forecast....but not be hyping a major storm. The IVT scenario is becoming more realistic. But you would obviously want to hold off on accumulations until we're much closer on a scenario like that.