Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Writing was om the wall yesterday, despite some enthralled by ensemble erotica.

It didn't look great yesterday....but ensemble guidance is typically still going to be more accurate at d4-5 than OP runs. That said, there was a clear split in the ensemble guidance...and the trend has been toward the more eastern members.

It's usually a red flag when we can't get one single OP run from at least one decent model to give a big hit....I've seen it not happen and then it trends big toward a western ensemble guidance...but it's pretty rare.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It didn't look great yesterday....but ensemble guidance is typically still going to be more accurate at d4-5 than OP runs. That said, there was a clear split in the ensemble guidance...and the trend has been toward the more eastern members.

It's usually a red flag when we can't get one single OP run from at least one decent model to give a big hit....I've seen it not happen and then it trends big toward a western ensemble guidance...but it's pretty rare.

Exactly. OPs aren't useless at day 4 and not one had a big solution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MJO812 said:

Usually SNE does way better than the NYC area in bad winters down here but it's been awful for everyone except for Maine.

Enjoy your gusty line segment tonight. Maybe if you're lucky you can get some small hail to bounce off the noggin or the grand prize of them all...a brief quick TOR

  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Usually SNE does way better than the NYC area in bad winters down here but it's been awful for everyone except for Maine.

If you run a line about 30 miles south of Binghamton and Albany to near the MAss/NH border to the south shore of Maine, to about 30 miles north of NYC and 20 miles north of the LI sound you've had a bad winter, but at least a storm or two or three. I had 12 inches from the December 2-3 storm and a grand total of 8.5 inches since. Anywhere south of that line you just haven't had anything worth even mentioning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Still a handful of notable ensemble members near the benchmark

*quickly signs off and closes window tab*

Yeah... low probability for sure, but it isn’t over here. Lots of spiking and high fiving over an event that’s still 4 days away.

Weve never seen forecasts change at that lead time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Less done than you, to be sure. Canadian is a nice little event here. I wouldn’t predict that at this point, but still 84 hours out... wouldn’t take much to have a glancing blow for BOS-PVD SE

Don't do it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah... low probability for sure, but it isn’t over here. Lots of spiking and high fiving over an event that’s still 4 days away.

Weve never seen forecasts change at that lead time.

It could tick back a bit. Big event is gone but advisory scraps are still on the table...they’re just at the edges and about to fall off. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It could tick back a bit. Big event is gone but advisory scraps are still on the table...they’re just at the edges and about to fall off. 

There is likely to be a broader area of light snow from the IVT if this doesn't come back....that trough is still going south of LI, so it wouldn't be that surprising to see a lot of C-2" totals.

Not very exciting, but it's on the table....just so that people aren't expecting sunny skies and then say "I thought the snow was gonna miss us!!11!!!"....

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

If you run a line about 30 miles south of Binghamton and Albany to near the MAss/NH border to the south shore of Maine, to about 30 miles north of NYC and 20 miles north of the LI sound you've had a bad winter, but at least a storm or two or three. I had 12 inches from the December 2-3 storm and a grand total of 8.5 inches since. Anywhere south of that line you just haven't had anything worth even mentioning.

Yeah. I think since Dec 1st Bridgeport has had like 12 inches of rain and only 4 inches of snow.

There is like a mass emergence of insects here this morning. Swarms everywhere. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There is likely to be a broader area of light snow from the IVT if this doesn't come back....that trough is still going south of LI, so it wouldn't be that surprising to see a lot of C-2" totals.

Not very exciting, but it's on the table....just so that people aren't expecting sunny skies and then say "I thought the snow was gonna miss us!!11!!!"....

This is something to really watch. Could catch people off guard but this is a pretty decent signal showing up. Could really be enhanced should any narrow zone of fronto either develop over eastern sections or traverse over eastern sections. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

If you run a line about 30 miles south of Binghamton and Albany to near the MAss/NH border to the south shore of Maine, to about 30 miles north of NYC and 20 miles north of the LI sound you've had a bad winter, but at least a storm or two or three. I had 12 inches from the December 2-3 storm and a grand total of 8.5 inches since. Anywhere south of that line you just haven't had anything worth even mentioning.

Yeah it was bad in Orh but they have experienced much worst. Closer to Boston-providence-nyc it was a disaster.

946ACC2E-6B10-4EC3-863C-12036D0A07BC.jpeg

2F0108D9-648A-4547-874F-89712168FE3F.jpeg

CDB0D4A6-A703-4620-8977-5687D407650E.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...