MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Congrats James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs still showing a coastal at 240 Just 1 snowstorm Is that hard to ask for ???? In this winter yes but it doesn't mean we couldn't pull off a rogue snow event or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Too early Disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The key right now is still the ensembles IMO. If they don't at least hold serve or improve in the next few runs this threat is cooked. Honestly, the NAM has my attention. We are entering the time frame to focus more on OPs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are entering the time frame to focus more on OPs. No way Still too early for the op runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 18z gefs moved east compared to 12z. It's also a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No way Still too early for the op runs In his defense I don't necessarily think it's to early to start taking the OP runs seriously but the ensembles are still very useful at this range and I would personally still lean heavier on them then the OP runs especially in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 GEFS not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 18z gefs moved east compared to 12z. It's also a bit faster. And there it is. Like I said in an earlier post if we see the ensembles move away from this threat in the next few runs then we are cooked. But one run isn't a red flag, at least not yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: And there it is. Like I said in an earlier post if we see the ensmbles move away from this threat in the next few runs then we are cooked. Not cooked but pretty close, especially for nj. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Sorry are you not in New Jersey? That's why your profile says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Not cooked but pretty close, especially for nj. Honestly its the indies that have really caught my eye. Do I think there is a high chance of this storm affecting portions of the northeast, no, not considering the seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I don’t hate the 18z gefs... but I feel like we are probably very slowly but surely losing this threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t hate the 18z gefs... but I feel like we are probably very slowly but surely losing this threat Remember when the northwest trends use to happen ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Remember when the northwest trends use to happen ? Yes but not at d4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Remember when the northwest trends use to happen ? That’s with a -AO. Even though it came down, that’s the main culprit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Remember when the northwest trends use to happen ? Yea, when we were modeled to get hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yes but not at d4/5. Trended like 100mi nw at day 4 in that event like a month ago....was supposed to slam us, and nailed Burlington, VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Trended like 100mi nw at day 4 in that event like a month ago....was supposed to slam us, and nailed Burlington, VT. And then the cutoff at the end of January trended about 600 miles at day 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Trended like 100mi nw at day 4 in that event like a month ago....was supposed to slam us, and nailed Burlington, VT. I find the offshore systems, that do trend nw, to do so inside d3. Could be selective memory but let’s also not forget the Mar 17 system that crushed NNE, which nyc was suppose to get 12-24” at d2, trend nw. Nam score. Debating semantics I guess but this has a few days before the writing is on the wall imo. N stream phase jobs aren’t necessarily handled easily by models, generally speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Wpc more aggressive than I expected with Friday snow probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: And then the cutoff at the end of January trended about 600 miles at day 4-5 It’s not always exact as you know. Phasers are complicated so I just wouldn’t go lay down in front of an 18 wheeler at d4, esp for se zones, is all I’m saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Make confused faces all you want. A - AO would help this carve a deeper trough and not allow the ridge rollover 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Wpc more aggressive than I expected with Friday snow probs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 58 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: And there it is. Like I said in an earlier post if we see the ensembles move away from this threat in the next few runs then we are cooked. But one run isn't a red flag, at least not yet. Lol it is four millibars stronger as well, and it looks minimal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 It really wasn’t a shift. In fact a good cluster of w/nw members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It really wasn’t a shift: The majority are leaning west of the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The majority are leaning west of the mean We need 100-150 mile west shift! James you’re looking okay you need 50 miles to get blasted. NYC and Boston needs 100 or more miles west. Hope for this to happen because we are running out of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowFeen1 said: We need 100-150 mile west shift! James you’re looking okay you need 50 miles to get blasted. NYC and Boston needs 100 or more miles west. Hope for this to happen because we are running out of time! Honestly we ran out of time in late January, when nothing but rain occurred. I would like a 75 mile shift west and we get 2 feet of snow with blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Euro is further east than 12z. Not what I wanted to see but not shocked since the pattern is progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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