TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Looks similar to all the other solutions we’ve seen at 12z looks great and then gets punted East... leaving a cape scrape basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Weaker and further east We ride the EPS for a couple more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Watch but tell self AWT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: As Richard Pryor said...”well fuk it then!” Early to give up but wouldn't be shocked considering this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Overall... not great on the 12z runs today... still time, but going to need corrections soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup, kicked. I wish the northern stream can dig deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Is that rollover issue a subtle nuance in the flow that can be overcome or are we just in store for another tease? Sure it could be overcome...but it's not something that's a good development. It's the fast flow up north which is doing it. If the northern stream keeps trending deeper, then it will work....but that's just another thing we need now unless the ridge goes back to not folding over as much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I wish the northern stream can dig deeper The ridge kinda prevents that by squeezing the flow on the backside. If it eased up some then the northern vort has room to drop in faster, imo, and the whole thing curls nw some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is having that ridge "rollover" issue too...it's preventing a much better northern stream this run from bringing us a big event. it actually looks pretty similar to the GFS regarding the southern stream at 84-hr anyways (which is good) but yeah it isn't digging as much with that north stream. I was actually wondering if the euro was faster with the southern stream based on how SLP unfolded but speed doesn't look all that different. What's funny though is I thought the Euro was a tad higher with some of the heights out west (looked like it was a bit farther north with the 552 contour but with closer inspecting there are differences in the ridge between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: it actually looks pretty similar to the GFS regarding the southern stream at 84-hr anyways (which is good) but yeah it isn't digging as much with that north stream. I was actually wondering if the euro was faster with the southern stream based on how SLP unfolded but speed doesn't look all that different. What's funny though is I thought the Euro was a tad higher with some of the heights out west (looked like it was a bit farther north with the 552 contour but with closer inspecting there are differences in the ridge between the two. Northern stream digs more this run, but the ridge to the west rolls over the top and affects the ability to phase the southern stream....the downstream ridging ahead of the system is blunted because of that. We get spacing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Northern stream digs more this run, but the ridge to the west rolls over the top and affects the ability to phase the southern stream....the downstream ridging ahead of the system is blunted because of that. We get spacing issues. ahhh that's what you mean by ride rollover...pretty clear now to see that with this explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Ctease at The Foxy Lady. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Watch but tell self AWT What did you think again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Man I knew it was too good to be true, she gone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Man I knew it was too good to be true, she gone! You are in a better spot than anyone on this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Man I knew it was too good to be true, she gone! You must be new if you think its gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 It's his first attempt at reverse psychology. He must be reading too much DIT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 There's a Snowstorm Potential? All I see is High's in the 50's for a week. And I averaged 21" the last 3 March's. Do Remember guys - I HAVE NOT SEEN IT SNOW AND ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND ONCE THIS WINTER!!!! I Repeat!! Have NOT Seen it Snow and Accumulate. ONCE!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1996 and 2016 had fold over ridges. They were really bad at preventing north trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: There's a Snowstorm Potential? All I see is High's in the 50's for a week. And I averaged 21" the last 3 March's. Do Remember guys - I HAVE NOT SEEN IT SNOW AND ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND ONCE THIS WINTER!!!! I Repeat!! Have NOT Seen it Snow and Accumulate. ONCE!! 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 EPS are a bit better than 06z....but not quite as good as the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 trends have not been terrible, let’s give it 24 hours to turn around a little more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS are a bit better than 06z....but not quite as good as the 00z run. What gives? Seems like you various ensemble suites have better outcomes than the OP runs. At some point, you’d expect those to link up, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS are a bit better than 06z....but not quite as good as the 00z run. Looks like some big members 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: What gives? Seems like you various ensemble suites have better outcomes than the OP runs. At some point, you’d expect those to link up, no? It's still 4.5 days out...so it's not uncommon to see this. They should converge pretty quickly in the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 big members from the super weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Looks like some big members Yeah but are those big members skewing the mean? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, MarkO said: big members from the super weenie Gotta go with a big member these days... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, Rtd208 said: Yeah but are those big members scewing the mean? That has to be the worst spelling for skewing I’ve seen.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: That has to be the worst spelling for skewing I’ve seen.... Yeah I just realized that lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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