Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If this was d2 then the writing is on the wall. Just give it until Wed before you run yourself over in your own patrol car.

I'm not giving up or anything...just frustrating because we've been seeing the same crap all season...1,000,001 ways to fail, despite 1,000, 002 opinions on why it shouldn't.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ukie is a whiff for most...well maybe some nuisance snows of 1-4 inches in southern areas of CT/RI and SE MA...blizzard for Jimmy though on the Cape....top of the ridge actually folds over the top in Ontario and sort of squishes this east at the last second. I was pretty sure it was going to be a huge hit at 102-108 hours...lol.

 

That said, I was actually more encouraged with that run than the 00z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is a whiff for most...well maybe some nuisance snows of 1-4 inches in southern areas of CT/RI and SE MA...blizzard for Jimmy though on the Cape....top of the ridge actually folds over the top in Ontario and sort of squishes this east at the last second. I was pretty sure it was going to be a huge hit at 102-108 hours...lol.

 

That said, I was actually more encouraged with that run than the 00z.

Very similar to the CMC... looks really good only to get punted East last second 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is a whiff for most...well maybe some nuisance snows of 1-4 inches in southern areas of CT/RI and SE MA...blizzard for Jimmy though on the Cape....top of the ridge actually folds over the top in Ontario and sort of squishes this east at the last second. I was pretty sure it was going to be a huge hit at 102-108 hours...lol.

 

That said, I was actually more encouraged with that run than the 00z.

Seems to be a trend that it looks great through 100+, then finds a way to minmize impact.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is a whiff for most...well maybe some nuisance snows of 1-4 inches in southern areas of CT/RI and SE MA...blizzard for Jimmy though on the Cape....top of the ridge actually folds over the top in Ontario and sort of squishes this east at the last second. I was pretty sure it was going to be a huge hit at 102-108 hours...lol.

 

That said, I was actually more encouraged with that run than the 00z.

We see that pinching of the ridge on most guidance that just doesn’t allow this thing to curl nw. Always something...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems to be a trend that it looks great through 100+, then finds a way to minmize impact.

Yes...I'll give it another 24 hours or so to see if those earlier trend manifest themselves more positively in the sensible wx department or if this is just going to be a case of another decent synoptic setup being ruined by some nuance in the flow.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is a whiff for most...well maybe some nuisance snows of 1-4 inches in southern areas of CT/RI and SE MA...blizzard for Jimmy though on the Cape....top of the ridge actually folds over the top in Ontario and sort of squishes this east at the last second. I was pretty sure it was going to be a huge hit at 102-108 hours...lol.

 

That said, I was actually more encouraged with that run than the 00z.

I don't know about nuisance snows here but it's close enough to warrant a look

qpf_024h.us_ne.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said:

How west are they from the 6z cause they were pretty west already.

I'm actually not sure where to get the plot which shows the individual low tracks but from judgement of eye (which is never a good way to go) 12z does look solidly west. 

but I always get a little weary of focusing too much on individual runs (and EPS for that matter) and how far west/east storm track is when phasing is involved b/c there are so many moving factors involved with phasing that agreement (or disagreement) 2...3...4 days out means little. At the end of the day a 6-hour difference in the timing of any of the important features will dictate whether phasing happens or not.

We could go into 12z Thursday and still be 12-hours off within timing and all of a sudden 0z runs come out and bam...there's a phase and we get nailed.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm actually not sure where to get the plot which shows the individual low tracks but from judgement of eye (which is never a good way to go) 12z does look solidly west. 

but I always get a little weary of focusing too much on individual runs (and EPS for that matter) and how far west/east storm track is when phasing is involved b/c there are so many moving factors involved with phasing that agreement (or disagreement) 2...3...4 days out means little. At the end of the day a 6-hour difference in the timing of any of the important features will dictate whether phasing happens or not.

We could go into 12z Thursday and still be 12-hours off within timing and all of a sudden 0z runs come out and bam...there's a phase and we get nailed.

 

C66FEE39-FF30-4E24-BB51-6C3C5C050AFE.png
 

 

A2B175EB-B298-40E0-8D7C-091CE3C828B5.png

  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...