MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, NJsnow89 said: Your weenism Stop trolling Get out of this thread if you dont want to track it. Many people think there is a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: this horrible winter Based off a gfs run where it barely shifted ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Based off a gfs run where it barely shifted ? we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I can't say enough ... that ridge position/axis being roughly over the western Dakotas makes an east pass unclimatologically sound ... The ridge in the blend/means/trend is actually really rather perfect for these amplifying OV things to drive a realization closer/SE of ACK ... It's a wonder, if the flow velocity issues are trying to pull/stretch this east of numerical suggestion... because that foisting thing when the ridge is still back west like that is ... It can happen... I mean anomalies relative to anomalies happen..but, seeing as 100 hours is still time to correct things, I'm not sure this is over just yet. I don't care either way though - if it misses...it misses. If the n/stream turns out utterly over assess up to this point ...than we're out either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 This winter everything has cut more and more as you get closer, so having OTS at this time frame ain't a bad thing i would say. Probably track over CQX when we're done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 You’d think with this setup we’d at least be seeing some model fodder with some massive solutions crushing the area, and we just aren’t really seeing that across any of these model suites. Just close enough to keep em interested until the rug gets pulled a few days from now. The final screw job of winter 19-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 This picture just popped up on FB from 5 years ago....to think I saw less than 0.5" this entire February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Staring out over the ocean like a schoolboy peeking through the window of a strip club. Teaser, so close yet so far 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If you compare its barely east. Small precip field. Yea. The south vort was better so a good step there. Plenty of time to fit the pieces together. Regardless, fun to track a legit threat again...wherever it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 This will probably end up being a Nick special. Likely to snub the rest of us. Back to Covid 19 tracking. More riveting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's interesting if one is a tedious morphology follower across cycles tho - the cyclonic pressure pattern is opening up and expanding farther NW around 100 hours, but the centroid low is kept way out there... Filling in QPF too; I still don't think we are "not what you want to see" mode quite yet ...Considering the source for these wave spaces, there's room to fiddle with this and it won't take much at all to get this where folks want it.. well, if they "want" something reasonable that is ..haha Yeah I wasn't writing it off at this time lead...that's for the weenies in here to do....but I'd rather see that ridge not trend flatter. "Trend" might be the wrong word here since it had been actually trending more amped for several runs before regressing a bit for one run here....one run does not a trend make....but we sometimes use the word interchangeably for dprog/dt. Southern vort conserved better and was slower, which is a good thing. I agree with you that there is certainly room for this to end up as a very high impact event....it doesn;t have to miss east. We have some classic features such as a climatologically favored ridge placement and the northern vort trying to dive in and capture that southern entity...those are features that many higher end events had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Through 90... cmc looks a bit better to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 CMC trying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, Hazey said: This will probably end up being a Nick special. Likely to snub the rest of us. Back to Covid 19 tracking. More riveting Its developing too early to be a nick special. The storms that develop near hse usually need substantial blocking to hit here properly from what I've noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Me thinks the cmc is going to be a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Looks a bit more intense but further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I wasn't writing it off at this time lead...that's for the weenies in here to do....but I'd rather see that ridge not trend flatter. "Trend" might be the wrong word here since it had been actually trending more amped for several runs before regressing a bit for one run here....one run does not a trend make....but we sometimes use the word interchangeably for dprog/dt. Southern vort conserved better and was slower, which is a good thing. I agree with you that there is certainly room for this to end up as a very high impact event....it doesn;t have to miss east. We have some classic features such as a climatologically favored ridge placement and the northern vort trying to dive in and capture that southern entity...those are features that many higher end events had. I wouldn't be surprised to continue seeing the southern vort trend slower. A lot of these southern stream systems this winter have typically ended up becoming slower in nature as opposed to more progressive. Noticed that alot with many of these rain/convective events in the south this winter. Hopefully though we'll get a better handle on the western ridge over the next 24-hours. Not sure though if it should be a bit concerning to see 12z begin to go towards a flatter ridge but tough to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Me thinks the cmc is going to be a big hit Similiar to 0z maybe slightly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Me thinks the cmc is going to be a big hit Nah. h5 kinda kicks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 12z GFS is better than the 00z and 6z for the Cape and Islands, more snow, and a much stronger storm, just need it 150 miles west, that can correct in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 CMC close but no cigar. Powerful storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nah. h5 kinda kicks east. It looked good for a while and then just shunts East last second... actually worse than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It looked good for a while and then just shunts East last second... actually worse than 00z Yea but man that is so close and at d4/5...not like anyone wants ideal solutions now, do they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Seen this movie beforw.....1000 shades of whiff 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 The common denominator with all these models is a miss to the East so I guess there is a consensus there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea but man that is so close and at d4/5...not like anyone wants ideal solutions now, do they? Well, I’d like something to show something other than a close whiff... doesn’t have to be a jackpot run... but something other than what we’re seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seen this movie beforw.....1000 shades of whiff Yep especially this winter These storms usually trend northwest but not this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Well, I’d like something to show something other than a close whiff... doesn’t have to be a jackpot run... but something other than what we’re seeing. Well it's not really a whiff for SE MA....probably several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Up to 102 on the cmc it looks like more phasing and a low closer to the coast compared to 00z... so up to that point it was a net positive. From that point on it looks like the low moves almost due East and surgically away from impact for NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep especially this winter These storms usually trend northwest but not this winter. If this was d2 then the writing is on the wall. Just give it until Wed before you run yourself over in your own patrol car. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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