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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

Pretty much. 

I don't think it's too far fetched to conclude that there will be no more significant snow for my area this season.  Not including a stray .5" or squall.

I’ve told them the same since early Feb any gotten the sane responses. Persistence won this year, A few folks always hang on no matter how it looks and end up sad. That’s their choice 

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4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Pretty much. 

I don't think it's too far fetched to conclude that there will be no more significant snow for my area this season.  Not including a stray .5" or squall.

Normally, I wouldn't agree with that statement in most every other season, but this one is a true Ratter, so I think you are correct in that assumption this winter.  It doesn't want to snow in SNE this winter...and that's all there is to it.  It happens every so often, hoping for a normal season next winter. 

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No argument from me... 

In fact, I was digging around out in the main forum with those seasonal outlooks and found a post I made back in October hinting pretty strongly that I feared no reason to go against the climate migration model and the HC expansion/fast flow contamination issues ruining this winter, just like last year. 

Gee, what the f happened?  Sorry, it's pretty clear that we had trouble with stream mechanical phasing, and cyclgonic entropy was large because of the torn open atmosphere. 

Yeah, I've been warning for a long time now ( meaning five seven or eight years ) that most these seasonal outlooks, few appear to have taken the latest research/observations/CC factors into account and still prog with too many vestigial influences of 1965 causation manifolds between water, land, and the more ephermal atmospheric indicators.  

They are not valid in 2020 ... hint - those method/validity started eroding in usefulness ... roughly around the onset and post the super-nino of 1997, and have gotten really quite obviously less than useful in the last five years.  I was just talking to Harvey Leonard earlier today about this, he made this statement to me, which was a veritable echo of my own sentiments I made in a passing comment/missive in one of these scrolled threads in here, a couple of months ago: 

"I have never really seen one quite like this, for combo of warmth, and not even any “close calls,” or “near misses” since mid December."

 In concept this is exactly what I said to y'all, 'it is getting increasingly more difficult to sustain a snow potential atmosphere at our latitudes of North America, without some sort of either concurrent or antecedent, direct -EPO loading to support'

I dunno - when combining the total worldly perspective on matters, we may already be in a Philly climate now...  Wouldn't shock me. I mean, most empirical evidence to date in support of the CC stuff, shows that the change has exceeded modeling expectations ...in some case by decade(s) depending on the focused metric.  Why not blow our f'n winters away too - But, before anyone panics, even in a Philly climate ( if more than merely tongue-in-cheek) it snowed a foot last week south of there in the slope country of the Carolinas.  There are no absolute boundaries in climate, it's all about rarity.  

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It may never snow again.

Oh, 1888 is coming :) ... that's the thing, people read missives like that, latch on to one thing, and then almost compulsively over-react - but ... this is what happens when you give provincial rabble that virtual podium and mike of the Internet - 

Also, you get sociological histrionic crisis' that flirts with anarchistic meltdown.   Space and remoteness, and dimmer technology used to protect actually, because by the time time "word" spread, it was already marinaded to truth by the crucible of time it took to actually get that word around.  Now, it's so easily disposed, there's 0 zippo no vetting.  Just misinterpreted source and reaction.  But I digress... 

I'm kidding half way here... don't over react ahaha 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, 1888 is coming :) ... that's the thing, people read missives like that, latch on to one thing, and then almost compulsively over-react - but ... this is what happens when you give provincial rabble that virtual podium and mike of the Internet - 

Also, sociological hystrionic crisis' that flirt with anarchistic meltdown.   Space and remoteness, and dimmer technology used to protect actually, because by the time time "word" spread, it was already marinaded to truth by the crucible of time it took to actually get that word around.  Now, it's so easily disposed, there's 0 zippo no vetting.  Just mis-intrpreted source and reaction.  But I digress... 

I'm kidding half way here... don't over react ahaha 

HUH????????  

 

Holy smokes.....What are you trying to say?

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34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve told them the same since early Feb any gotten the sane responses. Persistence won this year, A few folks always hang on no matter how it looks and end up sad. That’s their choice 

What do you mean by "a few folks hang on"?  Hang on to what?  Observing the weather?

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No argument from me... 

In fact, I was digging around out in the main forum with those seasonal outlooks and found a post I made back in October hinting pretty strongly that I feared no reason to go against the climate migration model and the HC expansion/fast flow contamination issues ruining this winter, just like last year. 

Gee, what the f happened?  Sorry, it's pretty clear that we had trouble with stream mechanical phasing, and cyclgonic entropy was large because of the torn open atmosphere. 

Yeah, I've been warning for a long time now ( meaning five seven or eight years ) that most these seasonal outlooks, few appear to have taken the latest research/observations/CC factors into account and still prog with too many vestigial influences of 1965 causation manifolds between water, land, and the more ephermal atmospheric indicators.  

They are not valid in 2020 ... hint - those method/validity started eroding in usefulness ... roughly around the onset and post the super-nino of 1997, and have gotten really quite obviously less than useful in the last five years.  I was just talking to Harvey Leonard earlier today about this, he made this statement to me, which was a veritable echo of my own sentiments I made in a passing comment/missive in one of these scrolled threads in here, a couple of months ago: 

"I have never really seen one quite like this, for combo of warmth, and not even any “close calls,” or “near misses” since mid December."

 In concept this is exactly what I said to y'all, 'it is getting increasingly more difficult to sustain a snow potential atmosphere at our latitudes of North America, without some sort of either concurrent or antecedent, direct -EPO loading to support'

I dunno - when combining the total worldly perspective on matters, we may already be in a Philly climate now...  Wouldn't shock me. I mean, most empirical evidence to date in support of the CC stuff, shows that the change has exceeded modeling expectations ...in some case by decade(s) depending on the focused metric.  Why not blow our f'n winters away too - But, before anyone panics, even in a Philly climate ( if more than merely tongue-in-cheek) it snowed a foot last week south of there in the slope country of the Carolinas.  There are no absolute boundaries in climate, it's all about rarity.  

Yes, I remember back you kept saying FAST FLOW, in and out before something has a chance, etc. With that said, for the near term do you see that slowing down some heading into Spring? And is there a chance that this fast flow will begin again next Fall into winter 2020/21 for another ratter if you will?

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No argument from me... 

In fact, I was digging around out in the main forum with those seasonal outlooks and found a post I made back in October hinting pretty strongly that I feared no reason to go against the climate migration model and the HC expansion/fast flow contamination issues ruining this winter, just like last year. 

Gee, what the f happened?  Sorry, it's pretty clear that we had trouble with stream mechanical phasing, and cyclgonic entropy was large because of the torn open atmosphere. 

Yeah, I've been warning for a long time now ( meaning five seven or eight years ) that most these seasonal outlooks, few appear to have taken the latest research/observations/CC factors into account and still prog with too many vestigial influences of 1965 causation manifolds between water, land, and the more ephermal atmospheric indicators.  

They are not valid in 2020 ... hint - those method/validity started eroding in usefulness ... roughly around the onset and post the super-nino of 1997, and have gotten really quite obviously less than useful in the last five years.  I was just talking to Harvey Leonard earlier today about this, he made this statement to me, which was a veritable echo of my own sentiments I made in a passing comment/missive in one of these scrolled threads in here, a couple of months ago: 

"I have never really seen one quite like this, for combo of warmth, and not even any “close calls,” or “near misses” since mid December."

 In concept this is exactly what I said to y'all, 'it is getting increasingly more difficult to sustain a snow potential atmosphere at our latitudes of North America, without some sort of either concurrent or antecedent, direct -EPO loading to support'

I dunno - when combining the total worldly perspective on matters, we may already be in a Philly climate now...  Wouldn't shock me. I mean, most empirical evidence to date in support of the CC stuff, shows that the change has exceeded modeling expectations ...in some case by decade(s) depending on the focused metric.  Why not blow our f'n winters away too - But, before anyone panics, even in a Philly climate ( if more than merely tongue-in-cheek) it snowed a foot last week south of there in the slope country of the Carolinas.  There are no absolute boundaries in climate, it's all about rarity.  

 

If we can warm another 4F in the next few years then we could be the new Philly.

 

I'm a little skeptical of that rate of warming. :sled:

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

HUH????????  

 

Holy smokes.....What are you trying to say?

Perhaps: traditional gatekeepers of knowledge (i.e. actual experts in a given field) are placed on the same plane as literally everyone else in the world when it comes to the spread and digestion of knowledge. The end result seems to have been the great devaluation of education and expertise as virtues.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

HUH????????  

 

Holy smokes.....What are you trying to say?

You're problem is that you think I'm trying to predict something there... that's an OP ed approach and conveyance - look up what that means.  Opinion piecing isn't what you are after there - 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

If we can warm another 4F in the next few years then we could be the new Philly.

 

I'm a little skeptical of that rate of warming. :sled:

don't be so literal it's a goodly bit tongue-in-cheek. "It wouldn't shock me" is a common trope for half hearted seriousness

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26 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

In all seriousness it's nearly impossible to pull off a 2012 torch. Iirc I think there were around 7-8 days in Morch 12 that were like +20-30. Haha. But a torch is a torch

We did like 5 straight days of 80s right up into NNE mid month. You need the perfect pattern with no pack and mud season almost over to pull that off...impressive feat.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, 1888 is coming :) ... that's the thing, people read missives like that, latch on to one thing, and then almost compulsively over-react - but ... this is what happens when you give provincial rabble that virtual podium and mike of the Internet - 

Also, you get sociological histrionic crisis' that flirts with anarchistic meltdown.   Space and remoteness, and dimmer technology used to protect actually, because by the time time "word" spread, it was already marinaded to truth by the crucible of time it took to actually get that word around.  Now, it's so easily disposed, there's 0 zippo no vetting.  Just misinterpreted source and reaction.  But I digress... 

I'm kidding half way here... don't over react ahaha 

I was joking ya know. Talk to me when we warm +3/4 for a decade and average less than 20 inches of snow. It's not the warmest winter on record but certainly a ratter. It happens just like 2015 happens. Warmer overall but I kind of think hyperbolic is the way to go at all times

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Just looked at some records for march 2012, here's hfd. Unusually dry too which makes sense

Sum 1789 1130 - - 552 4 1.52 1.7
Average 57.7 36.5 47.1 9.3 - - - -
Normal 47.7 27.9 37.8 - 843 0 3.62 6.4
2012-03-02 34 26 30.0 -3.3 35 0 0.09 0.3
2012-03-03 48 32 40.0 6.4 25 0 0.32 0.0
2012-03-04 42 27 34.5 0.6 30 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-05 37 21 29.0 -5.1 36 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-06 41 15 28.0 -6.4 37 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-07 60 32 46.0 11.3 19 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-08 68 43 55.5 20.5 9 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-09 59 32 45.5 10.2 19 0 0.01 T
2012-03-10 43 27 35.0 -0.6 30 0 T T
2012-03-11 60 27 43.5 7.6 21 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-12 74 30 52.0 15.7 13 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-13 72 49 60.5 23.9 4 0 0.02 0.0
2012-03-14 67 42 54.5 17.6 10 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-15 55 39 47.0 9.8 18 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-16 49 41 45.0 7.4 20 0 0.04 0.0
2012-03-17 57 43 50.0 12.1 15 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-18 72 39 55.5 17.2 9 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-19 79 39 59.0 20.4 6 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-20 79 46 62.5 23.5 2 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-21 75 52 63.5 24.1 1 0 T 0.0
2012-03-22 83 54 68.5 28.8 0 4 0.00 0.0
2012-03-23 75 53 64.0 23.9 1 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-24 64 49 56.5 16.0 8 0 T 0.0
2012-03-25 51 42 46.5 5.6 18 0 0.01 0.0
2012-03-26 53 31 42.0 0.7 23 0 T 0.0
2012-03-27 50 25 37.5 -4.2 27 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-28 56 38 47.0 4.9 18 0 0.18 0.0
2012-03-29 53 41 47.0 4.5 18 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-30 53 35 44.0 1.1 21 0 0.00 0.0
2012-03-31 46 33 39.5 -3.8 25 0 0.34 0.3
Observations for each day cover the 24 hours ending
at the time given below (Local Standard Time).
Max Temperature : midnight
Min Temperature : midnight
Precipitation : midnight
Snowfall : unknown
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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33 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I was skiing at Sunapee in March 18 that year. 80F and rivers running off the slopes

Golf courses here in the middle of VT at 1000’+ elevation opened here that year. I remember going to  play and taking a dirt road to get there. Got stuck in the mud and had to call a tow truck to get out. 

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