ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's both ... A bigger physical presence in the n/stream will/would tip the flow more S-N and anything in it at that time, ends up north... Part and parcel and necessary in wave interaction/fusion and eventual phasing is that the wave spacing is shared, and that above is how it first initiates. But like I said, the velocity is too fast escaping the SE as sort of a lead separate limiting factor; and that's something also that needs to be overcome. It's basically absorbing the s/stream like pretty much everything that's been shearing do to too much wind speed all season long..It's just not doing "as much" but it's still there. Be that as it may, there's enough there to initiated a cyclogen response, but... that same velocity is also trying to rip that low out to see before the n/stream has a chance to catch up to it. -- to much wind speed limits 'room for error' in phasing -- n/stream wave mechanics need to come in a little stronger to help pull the total flow structure NW out ahead of the NP dive these aren't deal breakers at this time. The first point can be over come by the second one, but I did notice that n/stream was weaker across the board by a smaller margin/panache, and th result of SE track bias fits that for the above reason. Agreed that a steeper angle of descent from the northern stream will definitely help with southern stream phasing. I don't care too much how it is achieved, whether it's that or the southern stream trending more robust and slowing down a bit....but we very likely need that phase to happen if we want something higher end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you too far north? Hmmm I'd be more worried about folks being too far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed that a steeper angle of descent from the northern stream will definitely help with southern stream phasing. I don't care too much how it is achieved, whether it's that or the southern stream trending more robust and slowing down a bit....but we very likely need that phase to happen if we want something higher end. Absolutely...yeah. At the end of the day, this isn't going to do much here without the fine-tuned, less margin for error timing of phase - unfortunately... Which means I'm annoyed and put off by it. Because we're asking this season to do that? That's like sending a Down's Syndrome to a Mensa meeting. But... in the interest of fairness... the seasoning ending relaxation and climo for doing so was discussed beginning a couple weeks back and here we are...so, if this piece of dung winter is going to save any face at all, considering all ... this and maybe later next week will be our last guns in the fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 This is still like 4 or 5 days out... but the major components coming together aren’t an eternity away. My observation has been a subtle trend across guidance over the last 18-24 hours that the interaction with these two streams just happens too late. A big storm in the Atlantic with minimal effects to NE. Obviously that can change, but at this point, I’d heavily lean late bloomer that misses the area. We are really trying to thread the needle to get these to line up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd be more worried about folks being too far west. It could be a south and east storm with the confluence press Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It could be a south and east storm with the confluence press I still want to see more commitment, period...guidance remains largely ambivalent regarding degree of impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is still like 4 or 5 days out... but the major components coming together aren’t an eternity away. My observation has been a subtle trend across guidance over the last 18-24 hours that the interaction with these two streams just happens too late. A big storm in the Atlantic with minimal effects to NE. Obviously that can change, but at this point, I’d heavily lean late bloomer that misses the area. We are really trying to thread the needle to get these to line up That in of itself is true, but caution not to think that's some boundary on plausible morphologies et al going forward. There's a world out side of the intra-regional spacing of the wave/stream interaction/smaller scales of the modeling depictions - and that outside exertion is not faux factor-able. It's real...and a correction of even subtly bigger western ridge and stronger/steeper diving NP n/stream wave ...all that has nothing to do with the present finite scaled stream dynamical interplay as modeled at this time. I'm not inclined to 'lean' toward any direction and I don't see how an objective perspective could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 It’s the 84 hour NAM.... but it looks ominous at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s the 84 hour NAM.... but it looks ominous at 84 H5 would be close to delivering. Hard to tell but the whole thing was better tilted for a closer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I don't think the NAM has ever NOT looked ominous at 84 hours regarding a butterfly fart either - We kid about the futility of the ICON ...but where there may be a slight ever so slight scintilla of hope in any one ICONic solution beyond 20 minutes from now, there is DEFINITELY no reason or purpose in adding carbon footprint to CC crisis because they're sending energy into the CRAYs to run that f'n meaningless beyond 48 hours. I do however disagree that < 48 the model is useless because if one knows how to incorporate its biases, it does have it's uses in shorter terms given certain dynamic scenarios. It's also very good as a convective initialization tool, but that's more relevant to the warm season and/or Plains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 12 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You honestly don't want that location with that intensity. Honestly can't tell you enough that is not what you want. Unless you want to see failure. I honestly do want that. Then I want the storm to track to a position near MVY while deepening to 955mbs. I honestly want a blinding, wind driven snowstorm west of the river, a sloppy mess from the river to EWB, while the Cape surges to 60f in a foggy dry-slot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I hope we get two feet and then it melts away three days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I think there's two events on the 12 -day radar ... this one presently being followed in guidance, but then give it another week...and we may be seeing something similar repeat. There's a pretty obvious signal there for a transitory reload maybe 3 or 4 days later. Not high confidence ... but, that operational GFS thing has several ens members also hinting at new amplitude into the east around D11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think there's two events on the 12 -day radar ... this one presently being followed in guidance, but then give it another week...and we may be seeing something similar repeat. There's a pretty obvious signal there for a transitory reload maybe 3 or 4 days later. Not high confidence ... but, that operational GFS thing has several ens members also hinting at new amplitude into the east around D11 EPS has that threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I have a feeling this nearer term deal is going to come in ginormous on a run or two, then wax and wane thru Thursday depending on what cycle drops the ball out over the Pac. It may actually be a nod in favor of "trusting" ( ) the Euro more because of it's normalization and correction scheming supposedly curtailing permutations from screwing up trends and reality ...so it is assumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 That 00z GEFs spread should have sent shivers - literally ...as the envelope of uncertainty was all situated on the NW oblonged envelope of solutions, with some very deep members. The 06z was in the frame-work of noise. that 00z spread to me shows we could easily get a run here now, sooner or later that really brings the 968 wood to 20 naut mi SE of ACK ... You really can't looked at this with Operational intent and not go, hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I know everyone is anxiously awaiting an icon update.... but it’s a miss at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I know everyone is anxiously awaiting an icon update.... but it’s a miss at 12z It's got better structure with a negative tilting/cyclonic tip to the 500 mb trough axis as it approaches the EC at/around 100 hours ... so, it may be in flux. Course there's always rooting for the underdawg, huh hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 12z GFS is a bit less impressive with the northern stream....ridge is slightly flatter out west. Not what you want to see. The southern stream is stronger/slower, but it won't be enough to offset the former trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Gfs isn’t going to get it done either... looks a bit less impressive than 6z too me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs isn’t going to get it done either... looks a bit less impressive than 6z too me. Further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 and it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z GFS is a bit less impressive with the northern stream....ridge is slightly flatter out west. Not what you want to see. The southern stream is stronger/slower, but it won't be enough to offset the former trend. It's interesting if one is a tedious morphology follower across cycles tho - the cyclonic pressure pattern is opening up and expanding farther NW around 100 hours, but the centroid low is kept way out there... Filling in QPF too; I still don't think we are "not what you want to see" mode quite yet ...Considering the source for these wave spaces, there's room to fiddle with this and it won't take much at all to get this where folks want it.. well, if they "want" something reasonable that is ..haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 What a behemoth of a storm though. Gets down to 959 East of our area. Too bad that isn’t 100-150 miles NW... prob be talking some insane conditions for most of SNE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: and it continues What continues ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: What continues ? this horrible winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: What continues ? Your weenism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 What a bomb too. So close yet so far. ots continues to be the most likely scenario. Just bet on that and maybe someone gets lucky in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 That is one massive circulation on the 12z GFS. Reminiscent of Feb 2013. (Not saying we get the same effects locally) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What a bomb too. So close yet so far. ots continues to be the most likely scenario. Just bet on that and maybe someone gets lucky in 4 days. If you compare its barely east. Small precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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