Whineminster Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 21 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 145" or so now for the year. You don't even seem that excited about it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, Whineminster said: You don't even seem that excited about it!!! I am lol. There is a bit of a law of diminishing returns I guess. The longer it drags into the spring the more it just turns into a grind...especially for smaller or medium events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Congrats guys. It's your winter. I love being near that 9.5 dot near MSV. If we get shafted around here while the urban corridor gets slammed this month I'll never forgive those who live in those zones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Looked like the 6z eps ticked a little East from 00z. Still a decent hit on the mean first srn and ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looked like the 6z eps ticked a little East from 00z. Still a decent hit on the mean first srn and ern areas. CTease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: CTease I don’t hate the look this far out. Would rather not have a 126hr jack. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Definitely an ots vs se zones battle now. Anyone further n&w is fighting for norlun like scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t hate the look this far out. Would rather not have a 126hr jack. Yea just can see some people having a final total and complete meltdown as they interpret posts incorrectly. Gonna be COC tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looked like the 6z eps ticked a little East from 00z. Still a decent hit on the mean first srn and ern areas. It squeezed the ridge entering the longitude over the Plains southwest just a little ..and so the whole-scale structure looks synoptically 'ticked' progressively stretched...which is code for bullshit. It's a nuance of the GFS' native bias being allowed more proxy on a run that's probably not outfitted with the same gunk as the 00z and 12z - that's what it my science-fiction engine sees, anyway. That said, this could be the ultimate butt-bone in a winter prison of tormented hell if this thing verifies as a big deep nasty bomb 50 too far SE for anything other than flurries NW of a cat paw event on the Cape. The winter took it all...then, takes it all - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looked like the 6z eps ticked a little East from 00z. Still a decent hit on the mean first srn and ern areas. Yea, you want this se of you at d4/5 then start that nw trend and get jacked inside d2. You and TBlizzy looking good. He just needs the icon to fully commit then the pant zipper comes undone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, you want this se of you at d4/5 then start that nw trend and get jacked inside d2. You and TBlizzy looking good. He just needs the icon to fully commit then the pant zipper comes undone. I’m not committing to anything yet. I’d like to see things at least look a little better from the gfs and at least hold serve on the euro. Still a lot of time left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Fun aside, the polar stream wave space that serves as the 'n/stream' capturing device in this whole thing is careening across the "super dense realized data arena " over the N/Pac... This run overall was remarkably in agreement among the available guidance I've seen. Even the ensemble means don't look very philosophically challenging of one another at all... And all, miss the region by a pubes to the SE and probably like always happens on Earth, a region that's been getting lucky continues to do so until the bitter end... NS/NF. The hint is in the lead paragraph... The last time a 'well-sampled' wave space over the west seemed to really matter was way back leading the "Boxing Day" storm...That one was all but lost SE as a near miss for multiple cycles, actually ...and then came storming back in guidance with like 30 hours to spare. Partly sunny/cirrus --> blizzard at less than J.Q. Public can get head wrapped around a forecast, speed. I'm not sure assimilation is still that primitive -and it really wasn't too terribly so back in 2010 compared to now but a decade is getting old. That was 10 f'n years man! wow So, I'm now improving my outlook from cautiously optimistic to optimistic for a bigger/important cyclone occurrence - but am unfortunately forced to erode back to less than cautiously optimistic that cyclone's impact here will be very extraordinary - that by fairness and full-disclosure allows for moderate impact, but that's pedestrian to me by definition. If en masse there is a 150 miles NW bump more unilaterally in the guidance, than we can chalk it up ( most likely ...) to data sparseness and sampling idiosyncrasies out over the open expanse of the Pacific and perhaps more optimism for greater impact will be justified at that time. One thing I am noticing though... ahead of the s/stream wave as it's vestigial spacing is rippling through the deep south... the flow is still cranking along at greater than 50 kts well out ahead escaping the lower MA out over the Atlantic, at mid level geostrophic vectoring. That's not really good for s/w ridging components; those need to roll out and helps feed back on meridional slowing, and thus helps feed in the n/stream fusion etc..etc and way she goes. But with those velocities, they are ablating/taking away the lead roll-out ridging, and that may be feeding back on keeping the track SE of the initial s/stream wave; then, the n/stream being slightly ( by just that much ) weaker than prior runs, it doesn't have quite enough mechanics to do it alone. If a strong n/stream comes in a diving fashion from the NNW, it will 'tip' the flow more S-N orientation off the EC and that would also help pull the s/stream low ignition back NW too. Lot of moving parts that won't really be assessed very cleanly in this situation until probably 84 hours out in time. But, the general gist of an important cyclone: that much is say 70 or 80th percentile. Know what would be funny though, just for morbid laughter? A NAVGEM absolutely no low result - ho man the scale and degree of apoplexy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Congrats guys. It's your winter. This may be the most weenie-est map that I have ever seen. Looks like something that Ray made. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Kinda weird to see the gefs more amped than the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Very Napril 97 look. We all get feet with 60’s days before and days right after April '97, March 2012....devil is in the detes, I guess... 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: This may be the most weenie-est map that I have ever seen. Looks like something that Ray made. Only thing missing is a circled contour in NE MA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: April '97, March 2012....devil is in the detes, I guess... Are you too far north? Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Eps is getting squashed a bit as the progressive ridging from the west rolls over top. Eps also a bit more of a trough over labrador causing confluence to the northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Rev kev's fb prophecy has brought me here, hope everyone enjoyed February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not committing to anything yet. I’d like to see things at least look a little better from the gfs and at least hold serve on the euro. Still a lot of time left. gefs are actually better looking than the eps now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 We tried to tell them, Don't do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I want to see a trend of more southern stream involvement at 12z...it doesn't have to be a monster hit verbatim, but would like to see that trend of reeling in the southern vort....the phase is how we get it done for something big, otherwise we're looking at nuisance snows most likely....maybe a moderate event if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gefs are actually better looking than the eps now. Gfs and gefs have had an amplification bias this winter from what I've noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Gfs and gefs have had an amplification bias this winter from what I've noticed. And they were the furthest se package and jumped to being the furthest nw in 2 runs. Of course 6z they jumped back se lol. Don’t trust that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Setting up for the ultimate coctease on overnight runs. Would fit the season Yeah... the general theme im getting is this is just going to get going a bit too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 The models too have struggled significantly with the whole southern stream system and potential impacts across the south. Heck, there was a good part of last week where EPS were even spitting out a large swath of like 4-8'' of rain across the TN Valley with some significant convection...boy has that changed. could certainly see a situation where the southern energy ends up a bit weaker...which would increase the likelihood of more involvement with the northern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I want to see a trend of more southern stream involvement at 12z...it doesn't have to be a monster hit verbatim, but would like to see that trend of reeling in the southern vort....the phase is how we get it done for something big, otherwise we're looking at nuisance snows most likely....maybe a moderate event if lucky. Yep, agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 It's both ... A bigger physical presence in the n/stream will/would tip the flow more S-N and anything in it at that time, ends up north... Part and parcel and necessary in wave interaction/fusion and eventual phasing is that the wave spacing is shared, and that above is how it first initiates. But like I said, the velocity is too fast escaping the SE as sort of a lead separate limiting factor; and that's something also that needs to be overcome. It's basically absorbing the s/stream like pretty much everything that's been shearing do to too much wind speed all season long..It's just not doing "as much" but it's still there. Be that as it may, there's enough there to initiated a cyclogen response, but... that same velocity is also trying to rip that low out to sea before the n/stream has a chance to catch up to it. -- to much wind speed limits 'room for error' in phasing -- n/stream wave mechanics need to come in a little stronger to help pull the total flow structure NW out ahead of the NP dive; it would also help that the backside western ridge bulging would actually happen here. these aren't deal breakers at this time. The first point can be over come by the second one, but I did notice that n/stream was weaker across the board by a smaller margin/panache, and th result of SE track bias fits that for the above reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And they were the furthest se package and jumped to being the furthest nw in 2 runs. Of course 6z they jumped back se lol. Don’t trust that. Yes. They always have a "bad bias" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now