HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I only see 4 at first glance. Most are clustered around the mean, outside the BM. You have them handy? Gefs have been jumpy this year with storms though so I’m not putting too much stock in them anyway. Until Tuesday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I only see 4 at first glance. Most are clustered around the mean, outside the BM. You have them handy? Gefs have been jumpy this year with storms though so I’m not putting too much stock in them anyway. I see two... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 2, 2020 Author Share Posted March 2, 2020 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Alot of nice members on the gefs after how many ipa's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see two... So much for ‘a lot’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see two... Blek..... need to see more of a trend on the ensembles. My gut feeling at this time is basically too little too late probably... nice storm for some fishermen out in the northern Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So much for ‘a lot’. Its further west than 12z. That's all we can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Its further west than 12z. That's all we can hope for. Well true but 12z was pretty SE from 6z so back to square one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 18z EPS pretty nice...looked better than 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Actually eps might be slightly east of 12z on the 132 map toggling it again but it was slightly better I thought on the 126 frame. Either way pretty close and at this lead time you want to see the general setup holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually eps might be slightly east of 12z on the 132 map toggling it again but it was slightly better I thought on the 126 frame. Either way pretty close and at this lead time you want to see the general setup holding. Mean QPF was certainly juicier on the 18z run, so must be some good members. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So much for ‘a lot’. Well, two that I like...there were also two that you would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Mean QPF was certainly juicier on the 18z run, so must be some good members. Yeah I liked that stronger “north” look at 120 hours before it sort of hooked east. That’s usually a good sign. At any rate, this still has the crucial synoptic features we’re looking for in a higher end threat with the classic Rockies ridge, transient 50/50 low, and a southern stream ready to be caught by northern stream diving in. Really the only thing missing is an arctic antecedent airmass being fed from a classic Quebec high . But that FROPA on thursday should be enough. We just gotta hope those features don’t crap out on us between now and Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 18Z EPS Mean SLP spread and total qpf for a 24hr period. Looks pretty good given this lead time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: 18Z EPS Mean SLP spread and total qpf for a 24hr period. Looks pretty good given this lead time. It’s interesting how all the deepest members are on the western edge it shows where the phase versus no phase members must beIt’s interesting how all the deepest members are on the western edge it shows were the phase versus no phase members must be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Must be some really far se members in there to skew the mean like that as the majority are west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Must be some really far se members in there to skew the mean like that as the majority are west. Yea, I said that earlier to Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Must be some really far se members in there to skew the mean like that as the majority are west. I would assume that cluster just east of Long Island would work pretty well for us around here, maybe even those just to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That does illustrate my fear here though. A phase with a powerful storm, but way too far offshore. That seems to be reflected in some members here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Maybe a deck destroyer w CJ action for S shore if this threads the needle that is this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm in on this one when @dryslot is in! Not yet, Haven't really looked at anything on this threat, To early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Some good hits there on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I'll take #25 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 There have been a few articles popping up in the last week or two on how NJ has used very little of the snow removal budget due to the lack of snow this winter compared to previous years. Now watch them blow through the entire budget and then some on one storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 30% of those members are big hits of a foot or more here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Snow develops over the mountains of WV, western NC and VA by the 4th of March, the next two days, will help a lot in determining the final solution. Our southern stream should not have more surprises in the modeling after 12z tomorrow, and then it is all dependent upon the northern stream evolution and phasing interaction. I just don't know if I turn out to be all rain and be sacrificed for the I-95 corridor cities and region, I would hate for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Phasing also begins around hour 84 on the 00z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Snow develops over the mountains of WV, western NC and VA by the 4th of March, the next two days, will help a lot in determining the final solution. Our southern stream should not have more surprises in the modeling after 12z tomorrow, and then it is all dependent upon the northern stream evolution and phasing interaction. I just don't know if I turn out to be all rain and be sacrificed for the I-95 corridor cities and region, I would hate for that. If you could sacrifice some rain, we would owe you one. To give is to receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Nam looks pretty north but Nam is Nam at this early stage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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