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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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9 hours ago, MetHerb said:

For all those folk calling for a March 1989, 2002 or 2012 to roll through the door and are saying we are done with snow, remember that even those months had 5-7" of snow.

At this point it looks to be fairly seasonable.

Violently disagree. The EPS which folks use, is waaay AN.  It will be cooler than 2012, but not that far off of that General idea especially the middle 2-3 weeks 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Violently disagree. The EPS which folks use, is waaay AN.  It will be cooler than 2012, but not that far off of that General idea especially the middle 2-3 weeks 

Right now the first third of the month looks normal to BN so for it to "waaay AN" week 2 and three are going to have to be extreme.  Either way, the month is still almost a week out.

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9 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Right now the first third of the month looks normal to BN so for it to "waaay AN" week 2 and three are going to have to be extreme.  Either way, the month is still almost a week out.

Wait a minute. Where are you getting normal to BN? I’m going to pray, pray that you’re not using the FV3es for that 

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57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wait a minute. Where are you getting normal to BN? I’m going to pray, pray that you’re not using the FV3es for that 

Ensembles. And yes, I include the GEFS when I'm looking at guidance.  It'll probably wind up about normal  but right now it looks like half of the days are BN and half are AN between 3/1 and 3/10.  Given that it's 6 days out though, a lot can change either way.  Let's just see how it plays out.

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22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Right??  That's only 13-14 days out...what could go wrong?  

I think it only goes out 15-16 days so it's at the end of the range and we don't know exactly what lies beyond that.  If you look at a meteogram the trend has been for a few days of cool/colder weather, a few days of warmer weather and rinse and repeat.  That pattern started last week.  For someone who has been touting persistence forecasting (which I don't think is a bad thing), who's to say that warmer period isn't followed by another cooler period after that?

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50 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

That's a pretty bold call.  Even the crappiest of winters have had snow in March here.  My worst March only had a trace but then we had measurable in April.  Good luck with that call...

Agree, we’ll see. Not much to talk about otherwise. It’s been a very boring tracking season. 

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