Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I have no idea what you mean? That’s honestly your M.O. though. You like piddly events that stick around vs a big dog that may melt. Nobody is calling for 2’. I like snow OTG in winter. If it’ s a bunch of small snowfalls , but it remains OTG great. If it’s 2015. That’s great too. Why does that make me dumb? I despise when it snows and there’s a torch looming two days later. It takes a lot of my enjoyment away knowing it’s gone shortly . That’s how I’m programmed. So that’s why I prefer Dec snow over a spring Morch snow. If that makes me a stupid dumb idiot. Then so be it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought it was impressive. Verbatim some was wasted in transition to snow. I'm not impressed by 3-6". Big storm? Sure...major snowfall..no. Again, just speaking of that 00z euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 500mb is a thing of beauty too. Nrn stream digging for oil and Jimmy sniffing ozone. Srn stream gets the low into position, and the nrn stream is like..."yo, I got this breh.." Yes. Agree. Regardless of the surface details, I was impressed by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure what you are missing. Its a very impressive system that doesn't produce impressive snowfall for our area on the 00z euro. Its like 3-6" of slop. Not to stick my face in the middle of your fledgling squabble ... heh, but, if I may make a suggestion: The QPF layout of the Euro is less paramount compared to it's other kinematics and total evolution of synoptic metrics there... It's way more likely being way too cute and compact east with that, almost treating like a tropical eye-wall - for lack of better description, and usually those CCB juggernauts are physically instructed to a vaster envelope... Just a suggestion though... I mean, these models obviously don't project physically "IM"possible solutions - usually ... it's just up to use to correct for better or worse based on likeliness, which is of course guided by knowledge vs wisdom. So, there's naturally going to be probability/risk in assessment ..haha. But simply put, I just think the Euro QPF layout is a little dubious, big IF it's right otherwise. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to stick my face in the middle of your fledgling squabble ... heh, but, if I may make a suggestion: The QPF layout of the Euro is less paramount compared to it's other kinematics and total evolution of synoptic metrics there... It's way more likely being way too cute and compact east with that, almost treating like a tropical eye-wall - for lack of better description, and usually those CCB juggernauts are physically instructed to a vaster envelope... Just a suggestion though... I mean, these models obviously don't project physically "IM"possible solutions - it's just up to use to correct for better or worse based on likeliness, which is of course guided by knowledge vs wisdom Oh, I agree...I would take that H5 evolution and grab the popcorn. I didn't say that I buy the relatively meager surface evolution should that H5 evolution play out....just reporting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Because they don’t last . It starts melting immediately. Why is that so hard for people to understand? March snows though are usually great snowstorms. It all melts at some point, I just don’t get the fact that snow after like Valentines Day is just stat padding snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I like snow OTG in winter. If it’ s a bunch of small snowfalls , but it remains OTG great. If it’s 2015. That’s great too. Why does that make me dumb? I despise when it snows and there’s a torch looming two days later. It takes a lot of my enjoyment away knowing it’s gone shortly . That’s how I’m programmed. So that’s why I prefer Dec snow over a spring Morch snow. If that makes me a stupid dumb idiot. Then so be it Fair enough. I still think December snow has just as much chance to see a torching cutter melt it in a week as it does in March, but to each their own. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: March snows though are usually great snowstorms. It all melts at some point, I just don’t get the fact that snow after like Valentines Day is just stat padding snow. Because you live in the mountains in N VT. You’re in a unique area that has snow into Mayorch . Most of us don’t have that luxury. It’s like comparing hamburgers to hot dogs. If it’s a heavy event I’ll enjoy it, but I’ll always be brought back to reality looking ahead at what’s coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Because you live in the mountains in N VT. You’re in a unique area that has snow into Mayorch . Most of us don’t have that luxury. It’s like comparing hamburgers to hot dogs. If it’s a heavy event I’ll enjoy it, but I’ll always be brought back to reality looking ahead at what’s coming Snow climo in SNE in March typically is better or equal to December. You start winter in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Seein' as I was asked ... I just like dramatic natural events. Period. In fact, I think there is value in seeing the total picture of a driving white-out go to 80 F a week later... that, in its step-back specter ...is incredible as a total event. In fact, cutting that up.. .it would be anomalous at all scales: the storm, the heat, and the storm --> heat. Amazing! Lost on folks ... wow. I think folks tend to want to categorize and preserve relative to those, some sort of emotional attachment to regimes...and thus loathe having to adjust ? Which if true - hint, I think more so than not.. .eh hm.. - this is a weird occupation for exposing that nerve! Because there is 100% chance of never seeing 0 change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Seein' as I was asked ... I just like dramatic natural events. Period. In fact, I almost think there is value in seeing the total picture of a driving white-out go to 80 F a week later... that, in its step-back specter ...is incredible as a total event. In fact, cutting that up.. .it would be anomalous at all scales: the storm, the heat, and the storm --> heat. Amazing! Lost on folks ... wow. I think folks tend to want to categorize and preserve relative to those, some sort of emotional attachment to regimes...and thus loathe having to adjust ? Which if true - hint, I think more so than not.. .eh hm.. - this is a weird occupation for exposing that nerve! Because there is 100% of never seeing 0 change. Last February in PA we got like 8-10 inches and the next day it was mid 70 degrees and I was snowboarding in a T-Shirt. It was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The hilarious part about it is that I’ve had snowpack for huge chunks of March on these so-called “stat padder” storms. I think it took until April to melt off the March 2017 snows...ditto 2018. Ditto 2013. Last year didnt last all month but we had deep pack for a solid 10-12 days after the 3/4 storm until a torching cutter got us around the 15t 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Because they don’t last . It starts melting immediately. Why is that so hard for people to understand? It snows, and 2 days later it looks like it’ll be 60. It’s great if it snows. I’ll love it. But it’s nothing more than adding totals to the season. A terrible season. It’s bittersweet. That’s just how I look at it STML short term memory loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 If someone has checked out and considers March snow a stat padder, do they get to include that snow in their seasonal totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not impressed by 3-6". Big storm? Sure...major snowfall..no. Again, just speaking of that 00z euro run. 3-6”? I bet that’s way higher if it were verbatim. 925s are cool with nrly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No one is getting 24” of snow. Christ you’re talking about boat loads of rain and calling me dumb? That’s dumb and you’re dumb Anger,fight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not impressed by 3-6". Big storm? Sure...major snowfall..no. Again, just speaking of that 00z euro run. What am I missing on the 00z euro? There is no way that is 3-6”. It’s like 1-2” of QPF that is basically all snow (maybe a few hours of rain right along the coast). Are you looking at some clown map that is trying to penalize the sfc output being 33F instead of 31F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, MetHerb said: If someone has checked out and considers March snow a stat padder, do they get to include that snow in their seasonal totals? Do they get to post in the thread when the huge event modeled at day 5 seems imminent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: 3-6”? I bet that’s way higher if it were verbatim. 925s are cool with nrly winds. Again, I'm talking about the output of the euro algorithm...its 3-6". Do I believe it were that to verify? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: What am I missing on the 00z euro? There is no way that is 3-6”. It’s like 1-2” of QPF that is basically all snow (maybe a few hours of rain right along the coast). Are you looking at some clown map that is trying to penalize the sfc output being 33F instead of 31F? It must be. I see way more than 6”. That’s why I was confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: It must be. I see way more than 6”. That’s why I was confused. Even BOS itself would be over a foot on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: What am I missing on the 00z euro? There is no way that is 3-6”. It’s like 1-2” of QPF that is basically all snow (maybe a few hours of rain right along the coast). Are you looking at some clown map that is trying to penalize the sfc output being 33F instead of 31F? That’s easily 12”+ for eastern ma.... probably closer to 18” for a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What am I missing on the 00z euro? There is no way that is 3-6”. It’s like 1-2” of QPF that is basically all snow (maybe a few hours of rain right along the coast). Are you looking at some clown map that is trying to penalize the sfc output being 33F instead of 31F? Yes. Its mainly a Berkshires, Greens and Monads event. Again, I understand that reality would look differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 That’s a classic eastern NE nuke on the euro...: sign for that in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Yeah yeah re the ICON AND that ... but, jus the same, ...to anyone with a modicum of Met insight, the 06z was a juggernaut correction and though that particular cycle only goes to 120 hour ( at TT), that was heading in one direction. ....DOOM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Even BOS itself would be over a foot on that. I guess I just should have said clowns weren't impressive, rather than surface because that is all I meant. Again, I would love that evolution in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 The airmass is marginal so I will say that. But given the eye wall moves onshore, my guess is that it flips to something near freezing given dynamics and N to NNW flow. Ray, I guess that’s where the confusion was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That’s easily 12”+ for eastern ma.... probably closer to 18” for a lot Agree. It would be a blizzard in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Clown maps don’t look meager lol they are 12-24” for all of eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Again, I'm talking about the output of the euro algorithm...its 3-6". Do I believe it were that to verify? No. Which algorithm though? There’s actual euro output which I believe is all your temp levels, qpf, and it may even have ptype...but the actual accumulation maps are usually produced by 3rd party vendors which interpret that raw euro data differently. In this case, if you are using a map that has an algorithm which severely punishes sfc temps above freezing then you’ll end up with an unrealistically low snowfall map. Even the pivotal wx clown map has like 18-24” over parts of E Ma. It’s just another way to interpret the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: The airmass is marginal so I will say that. But given the eye wall moves onshore, my guess is that it flips to something near freezing given dynamics and N to NNW flow. Ray, I guess that’s where the confusion was. Yea, I agree. My fault...I articulated poorly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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