powderfreak Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Let’s see if we can hold this. If so, a huge salvage of a ratter. It what we always talk about. You never can write winter off in a place where you can get rogue bombs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Hopefully you guys pull this off . Fingers crossed for you 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The surface solution isn't that impressive for us verbatim, but H5 was a sight for sore eyes. Looks like a good surface for ENE to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hopefully you guys pull this off . Fingers crossed for you We know you’ve secretly slapped your blower with your weenie this morning. 11 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Looks like a good surface for ENE to me... 2 feet or bust for Ray. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: It what we always talk about. You never can write winter off in a place where you can get rogue bombs. I mean it was the end of freakin February. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Looks like a good surface for ENE to me... March 2001 all over again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We know you’ve secretly slapped your blower with your weenie this morning. 2 feet or bust for Ray. I’ve got no dog in this fight, so it’s not fair to get involved. I gave up on winter. I do hope it snows though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve got no dog in this fight, so it’s not fair to get involved. I gave up on winter. I do hope it snows though Reasonable. I think ots is still more likely then a direct hit. A 70/30 euro/gfs split is usually a decent blend so we are not there yet. We’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 This is for 150 hrs out geez when I read it’s “still there” I figured it was in the 4 day out period ya good luck Skiing Attitash today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Was ray looking at the gfs when he commented on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: March 2001 all over again Nah, that one was 2-3ft for metro corridor for days that shifted north to CNE to NNe. This one is wide right from get go. We just hope the phase happens quicker to back this earlier and further west. Correctable but in a progressive flow, don’t count on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Was ray looking at the gfs when he commented on the euro? 960 on the BM is meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 960 on the BM is meh. Yeah wtf lol. Anyways airmass ahead of it is junk. Going to need a bomb for Anything meaningful I think. I still feel it’s a thread e needle for locally here. OTS or a lot of rain are good options vs a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah wtf lol. Anyways airmass ahead of it is junk. Going to need a bomb for Anything meaningful I think. I still feel it’s a thread e needle for locally here. OTS or a lot of rain are good options vs a lot of snow. plenty of time still? glad we are hooking you back in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Eps is better than 0z eps More defined low and also slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah wtf lol. Anyways airmass ahead of it is junk. Going to need a bomb for Anything meaningful I think. I still feel it’s a thread e needle for locally here. OTS or a lot of rain are good options vs a lot of snow. Just OTS vs a lot of snow for E SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 06z eps still looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 06z eps still looks good is the flow still moving fast or has it at least slowed down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, 512high said: is the flow still moving fast or has it at least slowed down? Still fairly fast but the PNA ridge (really a Rockies ridge) has trended better so that sort of temporarily slows things down just a touch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, 512high said: plenty of time still? glad we are hooking you back in! It’s still a lot of time and a tricky setup. If we are looking better tomorrow towards dinner time then I’d feel better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah wtf lol. Anyways airmass ahead of it is junk. Going to need a bomb for Anything meaningful I think. I still feel it’s a thread e needle for locally here. OTS or a lot of rain are good options vs a lot of snow. One thing that I have not seen in any of these runs is a lot of rain. I’d be more worried about OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Where’s my 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: One thing that I have not seen in any of these runs is a lot of rain. I’d be more worried about OTS. That’s if it comes too close. Airmass it quite marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The surface solution isn't that impressive for us verbatim, but H5 was a sight for sore eyes. Inclined to agree ... (corrected below) Not that you or anyone else hasn't considered the following comment: It's an easy fix at this time range... no worries on that specific point-aspect. Let's get the 500 mb evolution squared away and we can work with those idiosyncrasies. (corrected below) Furthering thoughts/observation in general: It's D5 entry and early D5 exit, and a massive slow mover. When we start expanding spatially, and then include duration... we end up wrought with all kind of concerns - for obvious reasons. The usual 'over in 13 hours with the heaviest snow falling in 4 hours' type event is conceptually insufficient. You get into storm-specific eccentricities that cannot really be assessed in the deterministic effort. In other words ... snow totals? Good luck. A Euro solution probably froths milk shake air to about CEF, MA arcing to CON NH, with by virtue of intense CCB wind field being so systemically large, and any snow at all is thrashed into a bona fide blizzard/vis profile along the coast. But, we all caution, this solution is the fourth consecutive that's corrected NW and deeper ... and with the EPS showing a reasonably discerned trend toward more organization in the 00z cycle .. ( to mention, the D5-7 duh) no one is convinced this multi-cycle hint is finished constructing its self in the guidance. Also .. this is a subsume phasing and those typically end up nasty for someone. That subsume has been remarkably consistent as a point-aspect, too. Marine and surf being agitated by multi- tide cycles would be significant problem in the Euro solution ...even being 100 mi east of ideal in this particular cycle's synoptic evolution I suspect that would be a concern. Are there any Equinoctial issues? *BUT* if we get a Euro-esque system to move that slow and that deep, with that kind of deep layer total tropospheric response, it will deform/lift the sea-surface into a tizzy either way - normal tides might crush vulnerably shore points with toppling seismographic abyssal walls, regardless. Particularly if that same sort of solution corrects a mere 100 clicks to the west, look out. That would be bad ... The GGEM probably has moderate typical coastal concern. But, if the Euro solution backs so much as a 100 miles west, or slows down sooner, with that that bombogenesis scale and degree? (I'm seeing some 20+ DM total height evacuation across 12 hours .. and you enter that obscene virtual scale where descriptions fade to black...) You simply cannot do that without hell to pay - I'm not being histrionic here; that's just theoretical. It's probably the operation going too bananas, but... just in case it's heading toward reality .. yeah. The capture and stall so typical with these summit events in this solution is in the GOM ... a little N of climo for Hull Mass, but the previous 12 hour crawl by at 960's mb from S to N like that ...I don't even know if there's a good analog for comparison there. I'd say I'm improving my personal odds on this thing to 'cautiously optimistic' for a moderate impact event, that if graduates to actual optimistic, also carries with it a 'corrective vector' pointed toward major. Something like that... We are at the tail end of mid range, ...extending an event from entry point there, to the extended at early D7... It's a unique deterministic scenario... it's cross time scalar because of it plausible majesty in the total circulation of the hemisphere - and I also mind us of the philosophy that large looming scenarios tend to do this sort of thing, and show up with dictation in the runs...like big boulders rolling down the steam and the current of pedestrian events stem their ways around the proxy of the boulder as a metaphor. EDIT: .. having seen the surface evolution of the 00z Euro operation version on Pivotal with better resolution .. we made not need much west track adjustment after all - but the QPF seems oddly underdone given the mid level morphologies across that key 12 hours of that solution - I think that would be magenta in concentric f-gen bands amid a total S/+S CCB head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 I see a 960 low east of the Cape, 6hr QPF increments of near 1" QPF and wind gusts near hurricane force on the coast. Not impressive enough? I understand it depends where you live..but how does anyone see that and not say whoa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Where’s my 2012? There’s been talk, in those inner circles, that they were looking at the maps upside down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Yeah I don't see 2012. Might still be AN though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I see a 960 low east of the Cape, 6hr QPF increments of near 1" QPF and wind gusts near hurricane force on the coast. Not impressive enough? I understand it depends where you live..but how does anyone see that and not say whoa? Full moon goon, tides high Sunday highest Mon Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Very remote chance of repeating +12 monthly departures - that was on par with a freak event - Ha, I wanna do that in July ahhaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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