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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

March 2001 all over again

Nah, that one was 2-3ft for metro corridor for days that shifted north to CNE to NNe. This one is wide right from get go. We just hope the phase happens quicker to back this earlier and further west. Correctable but in a progressive flow, don’t count on it.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

960 on the BM is meh. 

Yeah wtf lol. Anyways airmass ahead of it is junk. Going to need a bomb for Anything  meaningful I think. I still feel it’s a thread e needle for locally here. OTS or a lot of rain are good options vs a lot of snow. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah wtf lol. Anyways airmass ahead of it is junk. Going to need a bomb for Anything  meaningful I think. I still feel it’s a thread e needle for locally here. OTS or a lot of rain are good options vs a lot of snow. 

plenty of time still? glad we are hooking you back in!

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3 minutes ago, 512high said:

is the flow still moving fast or has it at least slowed down?

Still fairly fast but the PNA ridge (really a Rockies ridge) has trended better so that sort of temporarily slows things down just a touch. 

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40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah wtf lol. Anyways airmass ahead of it is junk. Going to need a bomb for Anything  meaningful I think. I still feel it’s a thread e needle for locally here. OTS or a lot of rain are good options vs a lot of snow. 

One thing that I have not seen in any of these runs is a lot of rain. I’d be more worried about OTS.

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The surface solution isn't that impressive for us verbatim, but H5 was a sight for sore eyes.

Inclined to agree ... (corrected below)

Not that you or anyone else hasn't considered the following comment: It's an easy fix at this time range... no worries on that specific point-aspect.  Let's get the 500 mb evolution squared away and we can work with those idiosyncrasies.  (corrected below)

Furthering thoughts/observation in general: It's D5 entry and early D5 exit, and a massive slow mover. When we start expanding spatially, and then include duration... we end up wrought with all kind of concerns - for obvious reasons. The usual 'over in 13 hours with the heaviest snow falling in 4 hours'  type event is conceptually insufficient.  You get into storm-specific eccentricities that cannot really be assessed in the deterministic effort.

In other words ... snow totals? Good luck.   A Euro solution probably froths milk shake air to about CEF, MA arcing to CON NH, with by virtue of intense CCB wind field being so systemically large, and any snow at all is thrashed into a bona fide blizzard/vis profile along the coast. 

But, we all caution, this solution is the fourth consecutive that's corrected NW and deeper ... and with the EPS showing a reasonably discerned trend toward more organization in the 00z cycle .. ( to mention, the D5-7 duh) no one is convinced this multi-cycle hint is finished constructing its self in the guidance.  Also .. this is a subsume phasing and those typically end up nasty for someone. That subsume has been remarkably consistent as a point-aspect, too. 

Marine and surf being agitated by multi- tide cycles would be significant problem in the Euro solution ...even being 100 mi east of ideal in this particular cycle's synoptic evolution I suspect that would be a concern. Are there any Equinoctial issues?   *BUT* if we get a Euro-esque system to move that slow and that deep, with that kind of deep layer total tropospheric response, it will deform/lift the sea-surface into a tizzy either way - normal tides might crush vulnerably shore points with toppling seismographic abyssal walls, regardless.  Particularly if that same sort of solution corrects a mere 100 clicks to the west, look out.  That would be bad ... The GGEM probably has moderate typical coastal concern.   

But, if the Euro solution backs so much as a 100 miles west, or slows down sooner, with that that bombogenesis scale and degree? (I'm seeing some 20+ DM total height evacuation across 12 hours .. and you enter that obscene virtual scale where descriptions fade to black...)  You simply cannot do that without hell to pay - I'm not being histrionic here; that's just theoretical. It's probably the operation going too bananas, but... just in case it's heading toward reality .. yeah. The capture and stall so typical with these summit events in this solution is in the GOM ... a little N of climo for Hull Mass, but the previous 12 hour crawl by at 960's mb from S to N like that ...I don't even know if there's a good analog for comparison there.

I'd say I'm improving my personal odds on this thing to 'cautiously optimistic' for a moderate impact event, that if graduates to actual optimistic, also carries with it a 'corrective vector' pointed toward major.  Something like that... We are at the tail end of mid range, ...extending an event from entry point there, to the extended at early D7... It's a unique deterministic scenario... it's cross time scalar because of it plausible majesty in the total circulation of the hemisphere - and I also mind us of the philosophy that large looming scenarios tend to do this sort of thing, and show up with dictation in the runs...like big boulders rolling down the steam and the current of pedestrian events stem their ways around the proxy of the boulder as a metaphor. 

EDIT: .. having seen the surface evolution of the 00z Euro operation version on Pivotal with better resolution .. we made not need much west track adjustment after all - but the QPF seems oddly underdone given the mid level morphologies across that key 12 hours of that solution - I think that would be magenta in concentric f-gen bands amid a total S/+S CCB head.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I see a 960 low east of the Cape, 6hr QPF increments of near 1" QPF and wind gusts near hurricane force on the coast. Not impressive enough? I understand it depends where you live..but how does anyone see that and not say whoa?

Full moon goon, tides high Sunday highest Mon Tuesday 

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