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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

See March 2017. :lol:   Although that sort of went to crap near the coast. 

Yeah wasn’t great right on the shoreline. But even Natick had 12”...almost all of it fell in like 5 hours, lol. Hellacious front ender. Man snow too. 

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1 hour ago, 512high said:

Tip getting on board!

Ah ...no -

these are just observations I'm making.

Personally? Beneath 'cautiously optimistic' - as in not as much as that.

The seasonal music doesn't groove like this is going to happen, and there's some objective merit to recognizing that trend without it being just histrionic/angry subjective hand waving -

There are reasons this season sucked... as I've opined ad nauseam since ... oh, 2005 actually ...how the hemispheric winters are speeding up velocities because HC expansion/ing into the boreal heights and the flow has to physically speed up...and it's an interference pattern - for good or worse is a case by case scenario. This year's been heavily biased in negative interference...

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah wasn’t great right on the shoreline. But even Natick had 12”...almost all of it fell in like 5 hours, lol. Hellacious front ender. Man snow too. 

One of only 4 events in 22 winters here to reach blizzard criteria, this time for 5-6 hours, and though it was all snow with temps +/- 20°, its 2.12" LE resulted in only 15.5" - not often one sees 7:1 snow at those temps.  Our Lab-mix rescue from TX had tolerated all the Feb snow in her first 2 weeks here, but was absolutely petrified on Pi day a month later.  A repeat would make this a plus winter even if we fall short of climo snowfall.

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18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah the cmc is a big storm... but it’s way East... not really even close to a big impact here... gfs meh. Steps in the wrong direction so far.

 

Everyones favorite model the ICON makes the connection though... nice storm 

Looks like the ukmet would do something too?

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GFS is outpacing the southern stream with a helluva lot of total progressive manifold velocity - I mean it's moving/reshuffling the L/W straight on through over the top of the southern stream wave, and just leaves it behind. It's a cold front...

The Euro/prior GGEM wanted to slow the N/stream down... It's hard to know if they are just playing into their own biases.  Same holds true for the GFS.  These models tend to meridian bias vs progressive tendencies, respectively, and it seems they are running with their own tendencies to do so.  The GGEM's 12z run certainly bucks it's bias... 

Then there's the seasonal tenor of missing opportunities and least excuse imaginable ...and often, creatively seemingly to rub it in, too ( haha ).  But, there are some vestiges about the flow overall that suggest its a bit more relaxed than a month back...and this is sort of transitioning into that regime this week.  It may be growing pains/transition in the runs... The AO is trying to neutralize, albeit transiently this week ...and if that is so over our hemisphere, that actually helps because it eases off the isohypses counts between JB and the Gulf, and may allow a Euro like fantasy more truth.  If the Euro comes in ...ah hell - it'll be interesting to see that run.

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NECN already starting to hedge on next weekend.  At least mentioning the possibilities of a wound up coastal.  Bouchard is going to have egg on his face for cancelling winter last week (more so than he usually does) if this works out. Personally I'm all in on something for the first 10 days or so of March. After the 10th time to put away the snow tools please.

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