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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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It's weird ... I'm not sure if this is just acclimation phenomenon as it pertains to my person but ...it seems we keep putting up rather lofty monthly temperature anomalies and I don't feel we've had much 'warm' appeal to it.  

That goes back years too...  Like the summer a couple clicks ago, when the big eastern ridge was modeled for the first week of July - when the GFS was MOSing 115 ( :wacko2:) and we rightfully suspected its error.   Turned out to be a 96/72er heat wave which is plenty hot but... the summer as a whole didn't seem outlandishly warm - humid and dewy after that, but not appreciably "hot" ...yet, the numbers seemed to suggest Venus came to Earth.  

I think part of this is that the overnight lows are skewing perception?  I guess I don't care enough to look into it... 

 But +4 to +5 above average ...'seems' like we should have had more days warmer than full sun 44 F'ers and that's what I remember the majority of afternoons...otherwise, we've even logged a snowfall in there.  We did do a 70 day though... 

Maybe 40 years ago, this March would have been down right balmy by common experience... But not today? And sensibly, this was not 2012 - it almost seems like this 2020 March achieved those lofty numbers by successfully evading a pleasant month - culminating in a global Pandemic -forced shut-down of Humanity to put the dog shit icing on the fecal cake gestalt that is clearly out attack our species... 

 

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15 hours ago, dryslot said:

Good, Keep it south, Going to be getting the boat out to go fishing to get away from this madness.

Checking the ice on Flying Pond while driving home today.  Hope it's safe for one last day of hardwater fishing tomorrow.  Had 17" ice 2 weeks ago, but open water at the edges may make entry/exit a problem even as most ice is plenty safe. 

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I can't believe you took advantage of a non-pro like that :lol:

Hey I let him off the hook by not responding to his double or nothing snowfall bet....another advantage-heavy bet. Give me a little credit for some empathy. :lol:

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Just now, tamarack said:

Checking the ice on Flying Pond while driving home today.  Hope it's safe for one last day of hardwater fishing tomorrow.  Had 17" ice 2 weeks ago, but open water at the edges may make entry/exit a problem even as most ice is plenty safe. 

Was talking to one of my bait dealer customers in Milo and he says there is still 30" of ice on one of the lakes there

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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOS +4.2F*
ORH +5.9F

PVD +5.4F

BDL +5.7F

A bit cooler to the north - GYX closer to+3 (same at my place) and thru 3/25 CAR was about +0.7.

For the majors?  I believe so.  Most Coops though are 7a-7a.

Farmington has been both at differing times in its long POR, recent years using 12:01-11:59.  I'd look at obs time temp for minima "twins" and cross check nearby majors (or known midnight-obs sites) to see if those had one cold night or 2.

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21 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Search showed 12 May ice outs in 129 years, only one (5/2/2001) since 1972.  March 27 is 4th earliest, behind 2010,2012, 2016 - this last the earliest at 3/18.

Quite the string of March ice outs in the last decade....  

I feel like I remember May too but certainly not if the last May ice out was 2001.

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Overnight convection will probably stick a fork in this threat.

yeah that's something I've been looking at. I was initially thinking that the greatest degree of overnight convection may actually be a bit farther north and east of where the greatest potential is, however, the past few runs of the HRRR seem to be a bit more aggressive with overnight convection down into IA and into IL. 

Since this does look like a later show tomorrow anyways I guess that gives some more time for atmospheric recovery...but this is a pretty insane setup. Dews in the mid-to-upper 60's under very steep lapse rates...this isn't uncommon but put these ingredients under those shear parameters...yikes.  

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