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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah.... we’ll see. A bit concerning to see the gfs pretty consistently not interested at all in this threat. Then there is the cmc on the opposite end of the spectrum which is an eastern SNE blizzard.

You know how to lean. Just keep an eye on it. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie is getting ready to tee one up as well.

NO shit ..wow, that look right there is a K.U. actually ... prerequisite set up -

Also, folks... I did a total wave space comparison and ending on D5/6 that GGEM solution off 00z is ( per my own estimation ) aoa the 80th percentile a March 31 1997 analog. 

The Euro's phasing is more believable through D6 but it somehow manages to bi-pass the two streams when the day prior, they were already apparently/seemingly integrating along the MA.. Not sure that's physically plausible but it's like "dis - integration" ( literally) after the fact going from D6 to 7 ...and ends up with a middling low up near NF and the mid level N/stream mechanics with blue balls off the lower MA like ...what happened - where did she go. It was already there and the depiction looks united on the coarser renditions, but somehow the S/stream mechanics slips the N/stream despite the grid spacing - interesting...

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

NO shit ..wow, that look right there is a K.U. actually ... prerequisite set up -

Also, folks... I did a total wave space comparison and ending on D5/6 that GGEM solution off 00z is ( per my own estimation ) aoa the 80th percentile a March 31 1997 analog. 

The Euro's phasing is more believable through D6 but it somehow manages to bi-pass the two streams when the day prior, they were already apparently/seemingly integrating along the MA.. Not sure that's physically plausible but it's like "dis - integration" ( literally) after the fact going from D6 to 7 ...and ends up with a middling low up near NF and the mid level N/stream mechanics with blue balls off the lower MA like ...what happened - where did she go. It was already there and the depiction looks united on the coarser renditions, but somehow the S/stream mechanics slips the N/stream despite the grid spacing - interesting...

Tip getting on board!

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Put away snowblower and shovels into the shed. Nice to free up space in garage. Could have just done it after Dec 22

I expect this angle to be worked hard over the next few days... and If the storm is still there on Tuesday... I expect this commentary to flip too “ this is easily 12-18 East of River”

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I expect this angle to be worked hard over the next few days... and If the storm is still there on Tuesday... I expect this commentary to flip too “ this is easily 12-18 East of River”

There is zero chance of a snowstorm . How many times have we gone thru this same thing this winter to yield nothing? Persistence was and is the game this year., I’m not going to get emotionally into this because I honestly don’t think we a chance. If it does happen to work out. Great to the guys that held onto skin hopes .

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9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs still wants nothing to do with this 

It’s the only model not on board, tossed. 

It went from cutter/inland runner to fropa. Eventually it will split the difference and catch on to at least having an offshore low...but a model that doesn’t show anything when practically all others do, to an extent, is an extreme outlier.

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There is zero chance of a snowstorm . How many times have we gone thru this same thing this winter to yield nothing? Persistence was and is the game this year., I’m not going to get emotionally into this because I honestly don’t think we a chance. If it does happen to work out. Great to the guys that held onto skin hopes .

:weenie:

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