powderfreak Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nothing's gonna save the interior barring April '97 redux or some crazy string of back to back 12"+ storms....but it can become a little less embarrassing if they can snag a 10-15 incher on the way out....ORH is at like 35"....they need to almost double that to hit normal (69"). Ah yeah wasn’t thinking normal but out of full ratter territory. More into like below normal totals that have been seen before. BDL is still within striking distance with a biggie but the valley would be tougher there. You guys have the climo to pull biggies out of overall poor patterns of things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Eps on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ah yeah wasn’t thinking normal but out of full ratter territory. More into like below normal totals that have been seen before. BDL is still within striking distance with a biggie but the valley would be tougher there. You guys have the climo to pull biggies out of overall poor patterns of things break right. Yeah I'd be interested to see what a place like BTV is for 18"+ storms....probably much lower return than ORH or somewhere in E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd be interested to see what a place like BTV is for 18"+ storms....probably much lower return than ORH or somewhere in E MA. Oh it has to be MUCH less up north here. BTV can do like 100" in a season without a 12-inch event in one sitting lol. Part of me bets ORH has to have one of the better return rates of big events for an official climate station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: UKMET's decent too Will was mentioning a few days ago we'd might want to watch the 24th and indeed, it was in many ensembles then, prior and since... It's probably a rare thing to see this particular threat be inside of 120 hours in this particular year - ha! Actually, the Ukie is crap or nothing for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Actually, the Ukie is crap or nothing for most of SNE. looked okay to me - but thanks :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Actually, the Ukie is crap or nothing for most of SNE. It's really close though....synoptically....it kind of torches the lower midlevels, but it's not far from a bigger solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Glad its north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's really close though....synoptically....it kind of torches the lower midlevels, but it's not far from a bigger solution. Yeah, one should not look at a 120 hour UKMET and take thermal fields verbatim - It's an interesting track and factoring known biases, the UKMET's decent too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, one should not look at a 120 hour UKMET and take thermal fields verbatim - It's an interesting track and factoring known biases, the UKMET's decent too Lol reminds of when Kev says a model is good and everyone is like no that’s not what it shows and the retort is “but when you add in its biases it’s a big hit”... not saying that’s happening here Tip, just gave me a chuckle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd be interested to see what a place like BTV is for 18"+ storms....probably much lower return than ORH or somewhere in E MA. The data I've gathered from UCC and Climod show BTV with 14 storms of 18"+ in 96 year POR (31 years missing early 20th) and ORH with 20 such events in 71 years, close to 2X the frequency of BTV though their respective biggest (ORH 34.5, BTV 35.3) are pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Spread looks greater than the 00Z run, also note that the cluster is quite a bit NW of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 EPS 12Z Probs 1" 3" 6" Not too much change from 00Z except gradient sharpened near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, tamarack said: The data I've gathered from UCC and Climod show BTV with 14 storms of 18"+ in 96 year POR (31 years missing early 20th) and ORH with 20 such events in 71 years, close to 2X the frequency of BTV though their respective biggest (ORH 34.5, BTV 35.3) are pretty much the same. Yeah that’s what my first reaction was saying. Twice the frequency makes sense given proximity to the deeper moisture source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 37 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that’s what my first reaction was saying. Twice the frequency makes sense given proximity to the deeper moisture source. How bout for Harwich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Looks meh at H5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 1 hour ago, tamarack said: The data I've gathered from UCC and Climod show BTV with 14 storms of 18"+ in 96 year POR (31 years missing early 20th) and ORH with 20 such events in 71 years, close to 2X the frequency of BTV though their respective biggest (ORH 34.5, BTV 35.3) are pretty much the same. The ORH numbers are also probably a little low ball due to the ASOS outage during the 1995-2002 period. I believe there are 5 events of 18”+ in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 16 hours ago, powderfreak said: Lol reminds of when Kev says a model is good and everyone is like no that’s not what it shows and the retort is “but when you add in its biases it’s a big hit”... not saying that’s happening here Tip, just gave me a chuckle. Perfectly fair assessment of when it is okay to 'apply biases' and when something only thinks it is - agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The ORH numbers are also probably a little low ball due to the ASOS outage during the 1995-2002 period. I believe there are 5 events of 18”+ in that period. The 20 events I noted include 12/96, 4/97, 2/01 and 3/01. Of the 20, 9 have come this century and 4 more in the '90s. The ORH ratio, about 2 per 7 years, is essentially the same as Farmington (Maine),which has had 35 such events in 127 years. 13 of those came this century, with 9 in the "oughts." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, tamarack said: The 20 events I noted include 12/96, 4/97, 2/01 and 3/01. Of the 20, 9 have come this century and 4 more in the '90s. The ORH ratio, about 2 per 7 years, is essentially the same as Farmington (Maine),which has had 35 such events in 127 years. 13 of those came this century, with 9 in the "oughts." Ahh, ok...good to hear those were included....the only one missing then would have been 12/23/97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Where is my plus 70 today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 20, 2020 Author Share Posted March 20, 2020 18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Glad its north. South would be fine, too. Way south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Where is my plus 70 today Same place as yesterday's & the day before. Hoping the sun pokes through and we can at least Salvage a couple hours of warmth from this supposed torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 1 minute ago, kdxken said: Same place as yesterday's & the day before. Hoping the sun pokes through and we can at least Salvage a couple hours of warmth from this supposed torch. Should be a nice late afternoon/evening...I'm hoping anyway. Trying to do some shrimp on the BBQ later. It's all a dream come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 all jokes aside .. I do think we'll see widespread 65-70 by mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Holy crap...I just realized the GFS now goes into April!!! There are ZERO full months left in the model world until May 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Should be a nice late afternoon/evening...I'm hoping anyway. Trying to do some shrimp on the BBQ later. It's all a dream come tomorrow. WTTTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Of course this happens now. Ugggh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Looks like a few hours of 2012 and then it's back to March 2020. I saw some 70s south of NYC and 80s south of DC...even an 86 at one spot. Ouch! Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 39.9F 120pm. CAD winning again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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