CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 Kevin effed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin effed us You didn't believe. Just like those Christmas movies where if you don't believe in santa claus he is not real and fades away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: You didn't believe. Just like those Christmas movies where if you don't believe in santa claus he is not real and fades away. I was starting to hope when a few runs got interesting, but deep down I didn’t have a good feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 Hopefully it is a meager precipitation week and we can get into some “we need rain” posts by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, White Rain said: Hey at least we are on the cold side of a storm for a change. Still 40f tells us how F’d the winter has been. Yay for being cold and miserable. Give me 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Didn't you make a FB post about expecting snow a few days ago? Read it and then get back to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was starting to hope when a few runs got interesting, but deep down I didn’t have a good feeling. That’s what Will, Ray others have had. Hope. That’s dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Hazey said: This winter was better the farther northeast you were. Cape Breton and eastern Newfoundland are having a banner winter(well above). I will be lucky to crawl my way to average or slightly below. NNE will be sub par except extreme northern areas. Obviously you guys in SNE have had it really bad. The most annoying thing for me this winter is how many teases we had. Like having the ball ripped away time after time. Just a barrage of close but no cigar misses. Just makes a crappy winter worse in my opinion. Sounds about right. CAR is 115% YTD snow and I'm closer to 80%. They've had several events 12"+ including one 18" and tops here is 7. Not awful, just meh-minus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 That’s where I stand. Several nickel and dime events but just missed several biggies by a few miles that nailed eastern NS and then went on to visit Nick. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 6, 2020 Author Share Posted March 6, 2020 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s what Will, Ray others have had. Hope. That’s dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This wasn’t a tease. Other than a few who don’t think persistence was the was way to go after Jan, most didn’t think this had a chance other than maybe a graze . persistence would have brought this storm up the HV, or at least a screaming sou’wester as you like to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 Back in Stowe from Utah... some big ol’ flakes flying up here in the mountains. Still have 8-10” of frozen granular pack. Weird to have the echoes moving from NE to SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: persistence would have brought this storm up the HV, or at least a screaming sou’wester as you like to say Persistence meaning not snowing . Basically the pattern this winter after mid Dec was storms cutting west dragging in warmth ORH south or coastals missing and hitting the Maritimes. This one was not a window and did not have a chance if you went with patterns repeating. Just like in 2015 when they all hit. You just forecasted that. This year you just forecast a miss . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Persistence meaning not snowing . Basically the pattern this winter after mid Dec was storms cutting west dragging in warmth ORH south or coastals missing and hitting the Maritimes. This one was not a window and did not have a chance if you went with patterns repeating. Just like in 2015 when they all hit. You just forecasted that. This year you just forecast a miss . This the route you would take if you are anti-science. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This the route you would take if you are anti-science. Like if you thought luck was involved in weather forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Like if you thought luck was involved in weather forecasting? You don’t even believe what you preach, lol. Otherwise you wouldn’t have even mentioned a snow possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Persistence meaning not snowing . That seems not rooted in science. Like what would cause it to "not snow"? Luck? You have storms going both north and south of you, it's not something in the atmosphere causing a black hole over you for snow flakes. Like in 2014 up here... everything either cut north of us, or Philly got a Winter Storm Warning with the "Leon year". But a moose fart in Alberta could've brought one of those north or south enough to snow here... it just didn't, bad luck? I rightfully got owned by Will back then too for thinking it just wouldn't snow because it didn't want to snow. That's a psychological thing, not a meteorology thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That seems not rooted in science. Like what would cause it to "not snow"? Luck? You have storms going both north and south of you, it's not something in the atmosphere causing a black hole over you for snow flakes. Like in 2014 up here... everything either cut north of us, or Philly got a Winter Storm Warning with the "Leon year". But a moose fart in Alberta could've brought one of those north or south enough to snow here... it just didn't, bad luck? I rightfully got owned by Will back then too for thinking it just wouldn't snow because it didn't want to snow. That's a psychological thing, not a meteorology thing. I do think a certain element to wx forecasting has nothing to do with science. There is a piece that is based on experience . If it’s full science , it’s likely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 36° and light/moderate snow, streets wet, ground dusted in the last half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I do think a certain element to wx forecasting has nothing to do with science. There is a piece that is based on experience . If it’s full science , it’s likely wrong The parts we can’t forecast are due to atmospheric chaos in a complex system. There is only so much that can be accurately measured and thus predicted. Predicting zero snow for like 6 weeks is nothing more than guessing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwick WX Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Quick snow squall in Warwick between bar down the street and home, no good dusting yet. Looks like a possible band forming to our northeast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Light snow mixed with sleet and rain, 36. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Snowing and 34.0 here .How will it accumulate out East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The parts we can’t forecast are due to atmospheric chaos in a complex system. There is only so much that can be accurately measured and thus predicted. Predicting zero snow for like 6 weeks is nothing more than guessing. It’s recognizing what the pattern is, what the atmosphere globally is going to yield locally , looking at past similar setups e.g analogs, indicies such as record +AO(which is SNE most important indicator) and a little bit of interpreting modeling and then tweaking their output based on the current atmospheric and local weather results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 5 hours ago, Hazey said: This winter was better the farther northeast you were. Cape Breton and eastern Newfoundland are having a banner winter(well above). I will be lucky to crawl my way to average or slightly below. NNE will be sub par except extreme northern areas. Obviously you guys in SNE have had it really bad. The most annoying thing for me this winter is how many teases we had. Like having the ball ripped away time after time. Just a barrage of close but no cigar misses. Just makes a crappy winter worse in my opinion. 3 hours ago, tamarack said: Sounds about right. CAR is 115% YTD snow and I'm closer to 80%. They've had several events 12"+ including one 18" and tops here is 7. Not awful, just meh-minus. If we end up notably subpar on snowfall for the season here, it will really have to be due to March and April coming in lean. We’re currently at 96.2% of average, and that’s after a lull in snowfall the past several days. As the seasonal snowfall plot shows below, we’ve been skirting either side of that mean cumulative snowfall line pretty well, probably too well to call it far off from average at this point. I think the local mountains might be a bit more behind their averages than we are down here, but maybe PF can speak to that. We’ve still got several weeks of potential snowfall to go up here in NNE – on average we’d expected almost 40 inches of additional snow at our site here in the valley, and of course much more at elevation. We’ll have to see how these upcoming weeks play out, but we’re already within 1 S.D. of the mean on total season snowfall, so we can’t end up farther below average than that. We should be adding a bit with this next storm because we’ve got some decent snow falling right now with that novel northeast flow that PF mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 53 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: Yeah, numerous resorts closed trails today based on conditions described as “ not edge-able” ..or frozen granular pack... Crusty spring snow. The time of year when if it won’t snow, the best surface conditions are above freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Albert A Clipper said: Yeah, numerous resorts closed trails today based on conditions described as “ not edge-able” ..or frozen granular pack... Wachusett was like that on Saturday evening. Hate that stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 33 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Wachusett was like that on Saturday evening. Hate that stuff We need any covering we can get. But milder afternoon temperatures soften things up it seems. It's snowing pretty well here this evening. Everything has whitened. Surprisingly good snow growth. BTV with 1/2sm moderate snow in this wave of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Moderate snow now. 34. About a 1/2" on the grassy areas. Not much on pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 4 hours ago, Hazey said: That’s where I stand. Several nickel and dime events but just missed several biggies by a few miles that nailed eastern NS and then went on to visit Nick. . Cool. I actually didn't realize yhz had done that well. I know warmer temps and a lack of snow cover have mitigated the winter feel for much of the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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